A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS IN THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY: A REVIEW (original) (raw)

Addressing dynamic risk in the petroleum industry by means of innovative analysis solutions

Chemical Engineering Transactions

The importance of Integrated Operations (IO) is rapidly growing in today's petroleum industry. It is being developed to improve capture of real-time safety barrier data and to process, visualize and share this information for closer onshore-offshore collaboration and expert support. Increased capacity in the communication infrastructure (e.g. via fibre optics) and integration and processing of data from various sources enable more accurate methods of risk analysis that would have been previously considered timecostly. For this reason this study addresses the topic of dynamic approach to risk in an IO context by presenting and integrating advanced techniques of hazard identification and risk assessment, such as: DyPASI (Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification), DRA (Dynamic Risk Assessment) and the Risk Barometer methodology. DyPASI was developed in the EC project iNTeg-Risk. This technique aims to produce complete and updated HAZID process. Atypical accident scen...

ENHANCING RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MAMDANI AND SUGENO METHODOLOGIES

Risk analysis is playing a critical role for industries to evaluate and observe the incident/accidents. In today's competitive world industries are focusing on the best solution to evaluate the risk which may leads industry to loss their reputation. This research investigates the application of Mamdani and Sugeno Fuzzy Inference methodologies, incorporating various membership functions, for risk assessment within the oil and gas industry's case studies. The study emphasizes the economic significance of this sector, recognizing its essential role in supporting transportation, manufacturing, and energy sectors, while also addressing potential threats from hazardous facilities. Through a comprehensive Fuzzy Logic-based risk assessment model, with a focus on Mamdani and Sugeno interface systems, the research explores the qualitative and quantitative aspects of risk evaluation. The results indicate the consistent superiority of the Fuzzy Mamdani approach in terms of accuracy and efficiency over the Sugeno method. The model, comprising Likelihood and Consequence input variables and a Total Risk output variable, is evaluated through both qualitative and quantitative analyses. Whereas, the outcomes are based on different membership functions and showcases three case studies, each considering four key factors.

Risk assessment process for the Iraqi petroleum sector

Journal of the Mechanical Behavior of Materials

Risk management is important for project success as risks in petroleum projects must be minimized to achieve the goals of production. Risk management composes of planning, identification, analysis, and response, which is an important phase. Controlling risks gains the projects the capability to overcome the uncertainty and thus effectively produce the targeted quantities. In this study, four types of risks have been examined in the oil field, and the Iraqi oil exploration company has been taken as a case study. These four types of risks are operational, financial and administrative, economic and political, and potential risks. The effect of these types has been examined by using a closed-type questionnaire form. The questionnaire form was based on the Likert quintet scale, and it contains 114 risk factors distributed in four groups representing the examined four types of risks. Over 170 questionnaire forms have been distributed in the oil field to engineers, managers, experts, and t...

Risk Assessment and Decision Support

2012

Typically, oil production activities contain many hazardous scenarios which could cause catastrophic disasters such as loss of asset, human fatalities or injuries and environmental pollutions. Essence of designing a safe process plant and delivering sustainable performance makes an efficient risk management plan necessary for promoting safety in hazardous industries such as oil production. Risk management activities including hazard identification and risk assessment support decision makers to manage the relevant risks and take appropriate actions to reduce the critical risks levels and contribute sustainable development. In spite of abundant number of tools, techniques and methodologies to apply risk management, there are still some difficulties to address uncertainties associated with decision making during different phases of a project life cycle. Furthermore, in most decision making models, there isn't a clear distinguish between the key components of risk management process e.g. risk, uncertainty, hazard, and feeling threat. The aim of this paper is an attempt to present an efficient model to provide an appropriate decision making approach under the uncertain situation. An oil field development plant is selected as a case study to apply the presented model and assess related risks and uncertainties during the basic design phase of the project in order to demonstrate the efficiency of the model. Three main categories are identified as the major causes of hazard situations in the oil field development plant which are technical causes, organizational causes, and political issues. The required considerations and appropriate actions to reduce the level of risks levels as a result of identified variables have been analyzed for the selected possible hazardous scenarios.

A Review on Risks and Project Risks Management: Oil and Gas Industry

This paper is a literature reviews of risks and projects risk management for oil and gas industry. Overview of the oil and gas operations such as upstream and downstream activities forwarded and elaborated for further understanding. Literatures on risks, definition, types of risks forwarded in this paper to illustrate the importance of risks management. Poor risks management normally lead to project failures, hence project risks management discussion forwarded in this paper. Usually, project risks management for oil and gas industry will be centered towards upstream activities, if wrong decisions were made it might cause losses of trillion or billion or millions of USD. Hence, this paper is to highlights possible areas to be explored for oil and gas practitioners and academics to further enhance their operations, and eliminate losses due to poor project risks management.

Advanced safety methodology for risk management of petroleum refinery operations

2018

Petroleum refineries are important facilities for refining petroleum products that provide the primary source of energy for domestic and industrial consumption globally. Petroleum refinery operations provide significant contribution to global economic growth. Petroleum refineries are complex, multifaceted systems that perform multiple phase operations characterized by a high level of risk. Evidence based major accidents that have occurred within the last three decades in the petroleum refineries, around the world, indicates losses estimated in billions of US dollars. Many of these accidents are catastrophes, which have led to the disruption of petroleum refinery operations. These accidents have resulted in production loss, asset damage, environmental damage, fatalities and injuries. However, the foremost issue analysed in literatures in relation to major accidents in petroleum refineries, is the lack of robust risk assessment and resourceful risk management approaches to identify an...

Safety Environmental Risk Management: Borrowing from the Past to Enhance Knowledge for The Future

Risk and Financial Management

The oil and gas industry is facing more and more challenges in the latest decades. Indeed, as oil and gas became more difficult to be found, new areas are targeted, as deep water offshore or more hostile environments like Alaska. These involve high technology industry and imply deep uncertainty. Thus, the application of classical approaches of risk management is limited, as shown by major safety and environmental oil disasters like the Deep Water Horizon Accident. This paper analyses the later as a case study, to discuss the complexity of safety and environmental risk management in deep-water drilling. Given this complexity, the paper will also analyse how feedback from previous accidents can improve knowledge, and change the perception and thus the way safety and environmental risks are managed in deep-water drilling. The findings of the paper contribute to development of risk management policy and risk decision making.