Biological and environmental covariates of juvenile sockeye salmon distribution and abundance in the southeastern Bering Sea, 2002-2018 (original) (raw)
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Linkages between Alaskan sockeye salmon abundance, growth at sea, and climate, 1955–2002
Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 2007
We tested the hypothesis that increased growth of salmon during early marine life contributed to greater survival and abundance of salmon following the 1976/1977 climate regime shift and that this, in turn, led to density-dependent reductions in growth during late marine stages. Annual measurements of Bristol Bay (Bering Sea) and Chignik (Gulf of Alaska) sockeye salmon scale growth from 1955 to 2002 were used as indices of body growth. During the first and second years at sea, growth of both stocks tended to be higher after the 1976-1977 climate shift, whereas growth during the third year and homeward migration was often below average. Multiple regression models indicated that return per spawner of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and adult abundance of western and central Alaska sockeye salmon were positively correlated with growth during the first 2 years at sea and negatively correlated with growth during later life stages. After accounting for competition between Bristol Bay sockeye and Asian pink salmon, age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon increased after the 1976-1977 regime shift, then decreased after the 1989 climate shift. Late marine growth and age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon was exceptionally low after 1989, possibly reducing their reproductive potential. These findings support the hypothesis that greater marine growth during the first 2 years at sea contributed to greater salmon survival and abundance, which in turn led to density-dependent growth during later life stages when size-related mortality was likely lower. Our findings provide new evidence supporting the importance of bottom-up control in marine ecosystems and highlight the complex dynamics of species interactions that continually change as salmon grow and mature in the ocean. r
Detecting the biological impacts of climate change is a current focus of ecological research and has important applications in conservation and resource management. Owing to a lack of suitable control systems, measuring correlations between time series of biological attributes and hypothesized environmental covariates is a common method for detecting such impacts. These correlative approaches are particularly common in studies of exploited fish species because rich biological time-series data are often available. However, the utility of species-environment relationships for identifying or predicting biological responses to climate change has been questioned because strong correlations often deteriorate as new data are collected. Specifically stating and critically evaluating the mechanistic relationship (s) linking an environmental driver to a biological response may help to address this problem. Using nearly 60 years of data on sockeye salmon from the Kvichak River, Alaska we tested a mechanistic hypothesis linking water temperatures experienced during freshwater rearing to population productivity by modeling a series of intermediate, deterministic relationships and evaluating temporal trends in biological and environmental time-series. We found that warming waters during freshwater rearing have profoundly altered patterns of growth and life history in this population complex yet there has been no significant correlation between water temperature and metrics of productivity commonly used in fisheries management. These findings demonstrate that pairing correlative approaches with careful consideration of the mechanistic links between populations and their environments can help to both avoid spurious correlations and identify biologically important, but not statistically significant relationships, and ultimately producing more robust conclusions about the biological impacts of climate change.
Response of Pink salmon to climate warming in the northern Bering Sea
Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 2020
Life-history and life-cycle models of Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) are developed to provide insight into production dynamics of northern Bering Sea Pink salmon. Arctic ecosystems, including freshwater and marine ecosystems in the northern Bering Sea, are warming at a rapid rate. Due to their short, two-year life cycle, Pink salmon are well known to respond rapidly to ecosystem change and can provide unique insight into ecosystem impacts of warming Arctic conditions. Life-cycle models suggest a lack of density-dependence for adult Pink salmon spawners in the Yukon River and potential for some density-dependence for adult Pink salmon spawners in the Norton Sound region. Life-history models identify a positive and significant relationship between the abundance index for juvenile Pink salmon and average Nome air temperature during their freshwater residency (August to June). This relationship supports the notion that warming air temperatures in this region (as a proxy for river and stream temperatures) are contributing to improved freshwater survival or increased capacity of freshwater habitats to support Pink salmon production. Life-history models also identify the number of adult Pink salmon returning to Norton Sound and the Yukon River is significantly related to the juvenile abundance in the northern Bering Sea. This result indicates that much of the variability in survival for northern Bering Sea Pink salmon occurs during early life-history stages and that juvenile abundance is an informative leading indicator of Pink salmon runs to this region.
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
Pacific salmon productivity is influenced by ocean conditions and interspecific interactions, yet their combined effects are poorly understood. Using data from 47 North American sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations, we present evidence that the magnitude and direction of climate and competition effects vary over large spatial scales. In the south, a warm ocean and abundant salmon competitors combined to strongly reduce sockeye productivity, whereas in the north, a warm ocean substantially increased productivity and offset the negative effects of competition at sea. From 2005 to 2015, the approximately 82 million adult pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) produced annually from hatcheries were estimated to have reduced the productivity of southern sockeye salmon by ∼15%, on average. In contrast, for sockeye at the northwestern end of their range, the same level of hatchery production was predicted to have reduced the positive effects of a warming ocean by ∼50% (from a ∼10%...
Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2008
To better understand how densitydependent growth of ocean-dwelling Pacific salmon varied with climate and population dynamics, we examined the marine growth of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in relation to an index of sockeye salmon abundances among climate regimes, population abundances, and body sizes under varied lifehistory stages, from 1925 to 1998, using ordinary least squares and multivariate adaptive regression spline threshold models. The annual marine growth and body size during the juvenile, immature, and maturing life stages were estimated from growth pattern increments on the scales of adult age 2.2 sockeye salmon that returned to spawn at Karluk River and Lake on Kodiak Island, Alaska. Intra-specific density-dependent growth was inferred from inverse relationships between growth and sockeye salmon abundance based on commercial harvest. Density-dependent growth occurred in all marine life stages, during the cool regime, at lower abundance levels, and at smaller body sizes at the start of the juvenile life stage. The finding that density dependence occurred during the cool regime and at low population abundances suggests that a shift to a cool regime or extreme warm regime at higher population abundances could further reduce the marine growth of salmon and increase competition for resources.
2013
Global climate change is expected to change the distribution and growth of marine species. Therefore, understanding how climate, ocean productivity, and population abundance affect the dynamics of marine species will help predict how growth and recruitment of marine species will respond to future changes in climatic and oceanic conditions. Statistically significant intertemporal correlations have been observed between a variety of environmental factors and recruitment, growth, mortality, and abundance of fish populations. However, because these correlative relationships are not reflective of the actual biophysical processes, the relationships can break down, particularly when used for forecasting. Failure of these simple correlative relationships motivates the search for biological indicators that integrate ocean productivity across ecological dimensions and through time. Measured distances along Chum Salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) scale radii and associated body morphology were used to...
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 1998
Ocean surveys show that extremely sharp thermal boundaries have limited the distribution of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in the Pacific Ocean and adjacent seas over the past 40 years. These limits are expressed as a step function, with the temperature defining the position of the thermal limit varying between months in an annual cycle. The sharpness of the edge, the different temperatures that define the position of the edge in different months of the year, and the subtle variations in temperature with area or decade for a given month probably all occur because temperature-dependent metabolic rates exceed energy intake from feeding over large regions of otherwise acceptable habitat in the North Pacific. At current rates of greenhouse gas emissions, predicted temperature increases under a doubled CO2 climate are large enough to shift the position of the thermal limits into the Bering Sea by the middle of the next century. Such an increase would potentially exclude sockeye salm...
Ocean warming cannot explain synchronous declines in North American Atlantic salmon populations
Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2018
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar populations have suffered global, synchronous declines over the past decades. These declines are coincident with improvements in river habitats and reductions in high seas fisheries, implying higher rates of natural marine mortality that have been widely linked to increasing ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic. The mechanisms linking temperature to marine mortality in Atlantic salmon, however, are unclear. During the period 1980− 2010, populations of S. salar returning to the St. John River, New Brunswick, Canada, after spending either 1 or multiple winters at sea have shown similar patterns of decline, coincident with recent ocean warming in the North Atlantic Ocean. Here we used stable isotope data from historic scale collections to investigate the relationship between foraging location, experienced ocean temperature and population trends for S. salar returning to the St. John River. We show that salmon spending either 1 or multiple winters at sea before returning to the St. John River consistently fed in different regions of the North Atlantic and experienced different ocean warming trends. However, both cohorts show synchronous progressive population declines over the study period. We therefore suggest that ocean warming cannot be the principal cause of increased marine mortality for salmon returning to the St. John River. Both cohorts experience similar conditions during the initial post-smolt period, and increased post-smolt mortality could underpin population declines. Our results support concentrating management and conservation efforts to reduce mortality in the post-smolt phase of salmon lifecycles.
Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 2008
Seabirds (Rissa spp. and Uria spp.) and sockeye salmon (Onchorhynchus nerka) of the eastern Bering Sea share similarities in their trophic ecology. We tested the role of seabirds as indicators of food web conditions that affect sockeye salmon at sea survival by investigating co-variation between seabirds breeding on the Pribilof Islands and returns of Bristol Bay sockeyes. We examined seabird phenology (hatching dates of eggs) against sockeye returns based on the year of ocean entry. Annual seabird hatching date was inversely related to sockeye returns, with the strongest co-variation found for sockeye which entered the ocean at 2 years of age (age 2x smolts). The mechanism supporting this covariation is unknown, but both birds and salmon may be responding to changes in prey availability (a ''bottom-up'' effect). The co-variation between seabird hatching date and sockeye returns supports the idea that variation in seabird breeding parameters indicates food web conditions that also affect other upper trophic level predators in marine systems. Coupling seabird phenology with existing annual predictions for Bristol Bay salmon may improve forecasts and fishery management.