The Arab Spring and Israel's Relations with Egypt: A View from Turkey (original) (raw)
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Dünya BAŞOL - ARAB SPRING AND ISRAELI SECURITY: THE NEW THREATS
The aim of the article is to evaluate Israel's security perceptions about the Arab Spring. The study argues that The Arab Spring is the reshuffling of the Middle East by realigned U.S.-Turkish common policies. For Israel the devil you know is more acceptable than the unknown future. Bearing in mind all the results of the surveys showing that Arabs can easily fall into radical Islam, Israel prefers not to enter such a dangerous and risky game for toppling down the old dictators and establishing new regimes. Israel could resist such a change and force U.S. to postpone or cancel their new policies if it were a decade ago, but today she is extremely isolated in international arena thanks to Bibi's government. On the other hand, Israel struggles to counter the Turkish offenses in diplomacy, has to avoid the ―Iranian Trap‖ that is being set by Iran slowly and carefully for the past few years, and also domestically facing serious crises. All those dynamics are forcing Israel to remain silent unless it breaks the isolation that it fell, and watch carefully the games played by U.S., Turkey and Iran in the Middle East.
The Egyptian Spring: Examining Challenges to Democracy and the Future of Relations with Israel
The Arab Spring, events that began in Tunisia in December 2010 and spread to Egypt and then Libya, Jordan, Morocco, Bahrain, Syria, and beyond, shook the political, intellectual, and social foundations of the Middle East. The main focus of this research is the Egyptian Spring. Scholars have elaborated the main cause for Egyptian Spring, which is: the poor economic system and corruption, the role of social media in mobilizing civilians, and the failure of Egyptian leaders in their nationalistic goals. The research examines three main challenges to democracy, the emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood and debates about the compatibility of the movement with democratic principles. The protection of minority rights, the expansion of military's power and its intervention in political decisions have also categorized as two other challenges to the democracy. The study analyzes the worldview of the Muslim Brotherhood and its impact on the possibility of changes in the future relations between Israel and Egypt.
Master Thesis at the University of Vienna, Department for Political Science
The revolutions and upheavals, which lastingly changed the nations of the Middle East and North Africa in the wake of the Arab Spring, do have a huge impact on the security architecture of the region. This master thesis is concerned with the consequences of the Arab Spring on the security of Israel in the regional system. The Jewish State has a special status in this system, which makes it distinctively affected by these pervasive changes. Therefore, the system and parameters that are dominating in respect to Israel, get briefly analysed. The regional system ante Arab Spring was characterized by autocracies and a power constellation that meant stability for Israel, now all of this has changed dramatically. The thesis will use three countries as examples on how these changes happened and affected Israel and its national security and threat perception. The case of Egypt shows how one of the two nations, with which Israel had agreed on a peace treaty after decades of war, increasingly became a security risk for the Jewish nation after the toppling of the old autocrat in 2011. In Syria, one of Israel's enemy nations and closest ally of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the uprising has escalated into a civil war, and is on the brink of becoming a failed state. The once safest border Israel had is becoming an increasingly “hot” border. The Jihadists that turned the civil war into an sectarian battlefield between Sunna and Shia are a massive threat to Israel's security. Because all Jihadist movements share the ultimate goal of the “liberation of Jerusalem”. The third example, Lebanon, shows how national liberation movements can have a regional impact. The Shiite Hezbollah-militia has actively joined the fighting in Syria alongside the ruling Assad-regime. At the same time, the fight against Israel is still a central agenda for the group. Its war against the Sunni rebels in Syria made it possible for them arm themselves from Syrian stocks and gain experience on the battlefield. As soon as they return to Lebanon, they will become a security problem for Israel. The Arab Spring had implications for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as well, although Palestine was not directly affected by the upheavals. Especially the anti-Israeli Hamas had high hopes for the uprisings in their first year. In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood, the mother-organisation of Hamas, came to power; the security vacuum on the Sinai peninsula made it possible for the organisation to smuggle weapons into Gaza. But the people's movements also showed to the quarrelling Palestinian leadership (Hamas and Fatah), that the pressure from the streets could become a danger for them as well. The agreement between the two factions can be seen in this light. But a unified Palestinian leadership is a radical change on the security level for Israel. A unified leadership means unified positions and a stronger voice on the international stage. And a unity government with Hamas-involvement is unacceptable for the Jewish nation. The Arab Spring also had direct consequences for the Israeli option for action towards Palestine. Before the revolutions, Israel could be sure that its reactions on the rocket fire from Gaza would certainly be criticized by the Arab world, but that no one would take action against Israel. The autocrats that ruled the neighbouring countries could not afford open conflict with Israel for various reasons. Furthermore, they did not need to give in to public sentiment, which often demanded a more aggressive stand on the matter of Israel and Palestine. But now, these autocrats are weakened or toppled, and for Israel, a new situation has emerged: there are now several other actors that have to be considered in its policy towards Palestine. And the old power structures in the region are gone. The Arab Spring has changed the regional system in the Middle East dramatically and incited a struggle for regional hegemony with religious rage. With the revolutions, Israel lost an order that guaranteed a certain form of security and predictability for the Jewish nation. The fall from power of the old order and the anarchy that is now dominating the region has shrunk the Israeli room for manoeuvre considerably and weakened its position in the regional system.
Turkish-Israeli Relations in a post-Arab Spring: A Historical Perspective
Turkish-Israeli Relations in a post-Arab Spring* : A Historical Perspective, 2013
By the beginning of 1997, the two states had secured numerous civil and military agreements, which gave rise to a genuine feeling of a common identity and a mutual future. Özet Bu makale tarihsel bağlamda Türkiye-İsrail ilişkilerine odaklanıyor. Türkiye 1949 yılında Yahudi Devleti'nin varlığını kabul eden ilk müslüman devletti. Bu noktadan sonra Türkiye, İsrail ve Arap Devletleri ile ara-sında kurduğu ilişkiyi dengelemeye devam etti. 90'ların sonuna doğru ise Türkiye ve İsrail arasındaki ilişki daha da kuvvetlendi. Ancak İkinci İntifada'nın gerçekleşmesiyle ilişkiler zedelenmeye başlayarak son dört yılda kopma noktasına geldi. İsrail'deki son seçimler göz önünde bulundurulduğunda İsrail'in Türkiye ile ilişkilerin düzeltmesi gerektiği görülüyor. İki ülkenin ilişkileri düzeltmesi, Arap Baharı'nın getirdiği zorluk-lara karşı göğüs germeye olanak sağlayacaktır.
The 'Arab Spring': Implications for US –Israeli Relations
Israel Affairs, 2014
This article argues that the 'Arab Spring' has ended the long-standing US – Israeli common strategy of supporting pro-Western and semi-secular autocracies in the Arab world. During these tumultuous events Washington chose to support the rebellions to varying degrees, thus exacerbating Israel's concerns regarding the adverse regional implications attending this shift (notably the ascendance of Islamist regimes and the diversion of world attention from Iran's nuclear quest). By way of ameliorating such threats, the US needs to pursue a policy of supporting pro-democracy groups in the region while formulating a clear policy to deal with the threats from Iran and radical Islamist groups. All in all, the 'Arab Spring' has created a highly volatile strategic environment thus making Israel an even more valuable strategic ally for the US
ARAB SPRING AND THE ARAB -ISRAELI CONFLICT
The Arab Spring as waves of protests brought down several dictator regimes that some of them were a pro-Israeli government. Israel, even if they wanted to, they could not stay away from Arab neighbors, especially with the continuation of the historical conflict with the Arab world, because of the Palestinian issue and the consequent tensions and animosities. Pledge Israel and its leaders are aware that what was happening in the Arab neighbors have impact in various fields and levels, which is a historical issue has been to prepare for it by setting up scientific institutions aim to monitor development in the Arab world, analyze and understand the meanings of these reflections on Israel and the Arab-Israeli conflict. The fear of Israel was real, when the people were attacking of Israel’s embassy in Egypt, and the long peace treaty between Egypt and Israel has threatened. In opposite, signing an understanding deal between Fateh and Hamas, and re-opening of the Rafah crossing at the border between Egypt and the Gaza Strip that Israel has seen it as a threat to its national security. In addition, escalating Syrian civil war and growing terrorist groups in Syria has made the situation more complicated for Israel. The paper tries to evaluate the importance of the political uprising in the region on Israeli situation. Likewise, illustrate the impact of the Arab spring on the Arab-Israel conflict, and then how their relation has an impact on the security stability in the Middle East.
2009
From its advent, Israel had a more skeptical-and in retrospect a much more realistic-view than those of leading Western powers regarding the dynamics and likely trajectories resulting from the "Arab Spring". Israel never bought into the "Spring" idea, viewing the upheavals that erupted in early 2011 across much of North Africa and Middle East as being closer to Tehran 1979 than to Berlin 1989. Israel is today effectively surrounded by a deadly mixture of new Islamist regimes (dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood but also by new Salafist parties), increasing weak states, and chaos. This paper examines this turbulent reality and outlines how Israel has adapted its foreign policy so far to deal with it. [From its advent, Israel had a more skeptical-and in retrospect a much more realistic-view than those of leading Western powers regarding the dynamics and likely trajectories resulting from the "Arab Spring". Israel never bought into the "Spring" i...