Analysis of cost estimating processes used within a concurrent engineering environment throughout a product life cycle (original) (raw)
Related papers
Quantitative and Qualitative Cost Estimating for Engineering Design
Journal of Engineering …, 2001
This paper describes the development of a cost estimating methodology for predicting the cost of engineering design effort during the conceptual stages of product development. The research was carried out within a large European aerospace manufacturer whose traditional costing practices had become outdated. The main objective was to generate a suite of technical Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) that integrate both quantitative and qualitative, non-recurring airframe engineering input, for the design process. Both the quantitative and qualitative design activities were separated during the CER development. At the end of the development process they were integrated to produce a final CER. The results demonstrate that these newly generated CERs can predict future design effort required, based on the typically limited product definition at the conceptual design stage.
The Cost Estimating as the Integrator Between Design and Production
Bjork B C Jagbecj a the Life Cycle of Construction It Innovations Technology Transfer from Research to Practice Conference Proceedings Isbn 91 7171 281 4 Stockholm 3 5 June 1998, 1998
Generally, the cost estimating is the first process where the design information meet the production information. It is very important that this integration succeeds; otherwise the same procedures are carried out several times while wasting resources. If the cost estimating processes and tools are well designed, the production planning, the procurement, the purchasing and the management tasks can both utilise and enrich the information produced on the design and the cost estimating phases. The focus of this paper is on the conceptual models of cost estimating tools and it is based on the research work and experiences collected during the last decade in Finland.
Product Cost Estimation: Technique Classification and Methodology Review
This paper provides a detailed review of the state of the art in product cost estimation covering various techniques and methodologies developed over the years. The overall work is categorized into qualitative and quantitative techniques. The qualitative techniques are further subdivided into intuitive and analogical techniques, and the quantitative ones into parametric and analytical techniques. Each of the techniques is then described and discussed, in detail, with further subdivisions. The paper also signifies the importance of cost estimation in the early phases of the design cycle and, as such, briefly discusses the current trends and future directions in the area. Research work carried out in the field with reference to specific applications is also reviewed. The paper provides a comprehensive literature review in the field and should be useful to researchers and practitioners interested in this field.
Procedia CIRP, 2016
This paper presents an approach for determining the most appropriate technique for cost estimation of innovative high value manufacturing products depending on the amount of prior data available. Case study data from the United States Scheduled Annual Summary Reports for the Joint Strike Fighter (1997-2010) is used to exemplify how, depending on the attributes of a priori data certain techniques for cost estimation are more suitable than others. The data attribute focused on is the computational complexity involved in identifying whether or not there are patterns suited for propagation. Computational complexity is calculated based upon established mathematical principles for pattern recognition which argue that at least 42 data sets are required for the application of standard regression analysis techniques. The paper proposes that below this threshold a generic dependency model and starting conditions should be used and iteratively adapted to the context. In the special case of having less than four datasets available it is suggested that no contemporary cost estimating techniques other than analogy or expert opinion are currently applicable and alternate techniques must be explored if more quantitative results are desired. By applying the mathematical principles of complexity groups the paper argues that when less than four consecutive datasets are available the principles of topological data analysis should be applied. The preconditions being that the cost variance of at least three cost variance types for one to three time discrete continuous intervals is available so that it can be quantified based upon its geometrical attributes, visualised as an n-dimensional point cloud and then evaluated based upon the symmetrical properties of the evolving shape. Further work is suggested to validate the provided decision-trees in cost estimation practice.
Research and Analysis of Opportunities in Product Development Cost Estimation
Advances in Transdisciplinary Engineering, 2018
The early stages of product development are characterized by uncertainties and assumption of parameters that directly affect the product and project costs, the development time, and the quality of the manufacturing process. Designers must deal with challenges that arise unexpectedly in an agile and responsive manner. Expert information systems based on ontological models are a promising approach to capture knowledge and rationale of domain specialists, either for decision making or knowledge reuse. The present study presents a bibliometric analysis on the use of ontologies in product development for cost estimation. It identifies trends and research opportunities that can orient future works. From a general search in scientific databases that originally listed thousands of entries, 31 articles were found and selected based on criteria established using the Proknow-C method. The outcome of the present study can help researchers in the search of relevant research gaps to guide future scientific investigations in the area of knowledge-based cost estimation for product development. Results indicate that there are several possibilities for solutions using ontological and hybrid, transdisciplinary approaches. In the search for solutions that support the product cost estimation in the early stages of development, the use of intelligent systems is not only promising, but is also challenging as a new and real transdisciplinary research area of interest.
COST ESTIMATION IN PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT: ACADEMIC RESEARCH AND COMMERCIAL SYSTEMS EVALUATION
During the past three decades, cost estimation systems have experienced some major technological innovations and paradigm shifts both in industry and academic research. There are numerous papers available reporting on research findings and the techniques used in cost estimation. This paper presents a review of current academic work and an evaluation of the available commercial cost estimation systems. However, there are few publications available covering current research and commercial applications, in particular in the area of cost estimation in product development. The aim of this paper is to provide the reader with an understanding of cost estimation techniques from the perspective of the past and present, their applications and commercial practice to support the product development processes.
Aircraft Cost Modelling, Integrated in a Multidisciplinary Design Context
Engineering and Applied Sciences
Most of the current cost models focus on a particular manufacturing process or a specific maintenance aspect, therefore not providing the whole picture. The main challenge in modelling the manufacturing cost, associated to a new aircraft at the initial design stage, is to examine all the cost features and the way to link them into the decision making process. It is important to understand the cost related to different competing designs, and this can be tackled by including cost estimation in the design process. Estimating the cost at the early design stage is paramount to reduce the life cycle cost of the aircraft. This paper presents the development of a new methodology for the generation of a cost estimation approach for preliminary aircraft design in a multidisciplinary environment. The framework is able to capture the design attributes that drive the cost allowing a designer to assess cost changes with respect to different design configurations. The cost model is built in Excel using a Visual Basic interface and it is integrated within Model Centre platform, where it can be treated as a component of a computational design process. The paper concludes by presenting the results from a real wing trade-off study that includes all the components of a complete design system.
A process centred virtual approach to support cost estimating along product life cycle
2006 IEEE International Technology Management Conference (ICE), 2006
The application of engineering practices and scientific principles to the creation of cost estimates along a product life cycle is one of the basic aspects of Cost Engineering. Cost estimates are used as fundamental criteria to make design decisions in the development stage and also to make business decisions in collaboration between OEMs and their supply chain. The achievement of an estimate requires experience and knowledge of different techniques and methodologies. Key aspects on its creation are the adoption of a cost estimating process, the availability of the needed data and the proper management of the information used during the process. The collaboration between the OEM and its supplier can be facilitated by having a better common understanding of how the cost estimates have been created. The cost estimating process used is then a fundamental piece of trust. In this context, V-CES project has developed a set of virtual tools and services around cost estimating processes to support the creation of cost estimates, the improvement of competences of the Cost Engineering Community, and the common understanding on cost between OEMs and their supply chain. The main purpose of this paper is to present the research conducted in the definition of cost estimating processes and the virtual solutions developed around them.
Qualitative and Quantitative Cost Estimation: A Methodology Analysis
Computing in Civil and Building Engineering (2014), 2014
This paper reports on the first part of an ongoing research with the goal of designing a framework and a knowledge-based system for 3D parametric modelbased quantity takeoff and cost estimation in the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) industry. The authors have studied and analyzed current cost estimation methods used in both the AEC and non-AEC industries in terms of their requirements, use contexts, methodologies, limitations and strengths to lay the groundwork for selecting the most suitable problem decomposition methods and cost estimation techniques to design a new framework. We have focused on determining the underlying methodologies of different cost estimation models and not just the techniques. Both qualitative methods used in early stages of design and quantitative methods used in more mature design stages are reviewed and their structure are analyzed.
Manufacturing cost modelling for concurrent product development
Robotics and Computer-Integrated Manufacturing, 2001
This research work aims to develop an intelligent knowledge-based system that accomplishes an environment to assist inexperienced users to estimate the manufacturing cost modelling of a product at the conceptual design stage of the product life cycle. Therefore, a quicker response to customers' expectations is generated. This paper discusses the development process of the proposed system for cost modelling of machining processes. It embodies a CAD solid modelling system, user interface, material selection, process/machine selection, and cost estimation techniques. The main function of the system, besides estimating the product cost, is to generate initial process planning includes generation and selection of machining processes, their sequence and their machining parameters. Therefore, the developed system di!ers from conventional product cost estimating systems, in that it is structured to support concurrent engineering. Manufacturing knowledge is represented by hybrid knowledge representation techniques, such as production rules, frames and object oriented. To handle the uncertainty in cost estimation model that cannot be addressed by traditional analytical methods, a fuzzy logic-based knowledge representation is implemented in the developed system. Based on the analysis of product life cycle, the estimated cost included material, processing, machine set-up and non-productive costs. A case study is discussed and demonstrated to validate the proposed system.