Understanding the Complexity of Terrorist Networks (original) (raw)
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The Complexity of Terrorist Networks
2008 12th International Conference Information Visualisation, 2008
This map yields a number of interesting properties. Using measures of centrality, Krebs' work analyzes the dynamics of the network. In this regard, he also illuminates the centrality measure's sensitivity to changes in nodes and links. In terms of utility as a counter-intelligence tool, the mapping exposes a concentration of links around the pilots, an organizational weakness which could have been used against the hijackers had the mapping been available prior to, rather than after the disaster, suggesting the utility of developing these tools as an ongoing mechanism for combating terrorism.
Modeling Terrorist Networks, Complex Systems at the Mid-range
ArXiv, 2014
In this paper, we develop the themes presented at the 2003 Joint Complexity Conference at the London School of Economics and subsequently published in The Intelligencer (2004) and O Tempo Das Redes (2008). Following the data analysis of the 9/11 high-jacker network developed by Valdis Krebs from open sources, we apply social network theory to examine salient arguments regarding terrorism as seen from the standpoint of complex adaptive systems theory. In particular, we explore the concepts of group cohesion, adhesion and alternative network mappings derived from node removal.
In this paper, we develop the themes presented at the 2003 Joint Complexity Conference at the London School of Economics and subsequently published in The Intelligencer (2004) and O Tempo Das Redes (2008). Following the data analysis of the 9/11 high-jacker network developed by Valdis Krebs from open sources, we apply social network theory to examine salient arguments regarding terrorism as seen from the standpoint of complex adaptive systems theory. In particular, we explore the concepts of group cohesion, adhesion and alternative network mappings derived from node removal.
Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2019
Objectives The current research examines how the efficiency/security tradeoff shapes the evolution of dynamic terrorist networks by focusing on the structural properties of these collectives. Some scholars argue that terrorist groups develop as chain-like, decentralized structures, while others maintain that terrorist networks form patterns of redundant ties and organize around a few highly connected individuals, or central hubs. We investigate these structural properties and consider whether patterns vary at different phases of a terrorist network's formation. Methods Using a variety of descriptive network measures and Separable Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models, we consider patterns of tie formation across eleven multiwave terrorism networks from the John Jay & ARTIS Transnational Terrorism database. This dataset includes networks from prominent attacks and bombings that occurred in the last 3 decades (e.g., the 2002 Bali Bombings), where nodes represent individual terrorists and ties represent social relationships. Results We find that terrorist groups navigate the efficiency/security tradeoff by developing increasingly well-connected networks as they prepare for a violent incident. Our results also show that highly central nodes acquire even more ties in the years directly preceding an attack, signifying that the evolution of terrorist networks tends to be structured around a few key actors. Conclusions Our findings have the potential to inform counterterrorism efforts by suggesting which actors in the network make the most influential targets for law enforcement. We discuss how these strategies should vary as extremist networks evolve over time.
The Complexity of Terrorism: Social and Behavioral Understanding Trends for the Future
Information Age Warfare Quarterly, 2006
Terrorism can be viewed as an emergent phenomenon of complex, dynamically interacting social, technological, and institutional systems. Considering terrorism through this lens has significant implications for social and behavioral research and analysis, made possible by advances in understanding complex systems over the past twenty years. First, the universal principles that govern the behavior of complex systems provide a much needed, common framework that transcends traditional academic boundaries and allows synergistic consideration of knowledge from diverse conceptual domains, multiple cultural perspectives, and a wide range of behavioral scales. Second, technical advances in analytic methods derived from complexity science – such as multi-scale dynamic network analysis, evolutionary computing algorithms, agent based modeling and simulation, and multi-dimensional pattern analysis – provide means for data analysis, and hypothesis generation and testing that have been computationally intractable in the past. Third, new paradigms for sense-making in situations of high complexity and ambiguity provide intelligence and policy analysts means to explicitly consider complex social and behavioral phenomena such as emergence, innovation, adaptation, self-organization, and surprise in developing counter terrorism strategies. This paper provides an analytic framework based on the principles of complex systems analysis; describes how key analytic methods fit into that framework; thereby providing new paradigms for sensemaking.
Analysis of a Terror Network from a System Dynamics Perspective
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012
Terrorism is a complex problem and therefore simple solutions focusing just on one aspect are destined to fail. We have to capture terrorism in its entirety and system dynamics offers various tools to support us. We developed a semi-quantitative system dynamics approach aiming to characterize relationships between different variables and their impact on the system as a whole. The authors established a network to model terrorism consisting of 16 variables and performed different analysis to gain a better understanding of the mechanisms behind terrorism. We showed how to determine which variables are suited for intervention and described in detail their effects on the influence of the terrorist organization. The paper gives also an insight how to elicit elements that destabilize and ultimately break down the terror network. Because we clarify our approach using fictitious numbers, the relevance of this work is not so much in specific policy recommendations that it proposes as in the framework for reasoning that it provides.
A New Model for Predicting and Dismantling a Complex Terrorist Network
IEEE Access
The perennial nature of terrorist attacks in recent times has ushered in a new wave of study in the field of terrorism known as social network analysis (SNA). Terrorist groups operate as a social network stealthily to enhance their efficacy rate, thereby making sure their activities are cloaked. This study proposes a new method to uncover and dismantle a terror network by applying a 4-centrality measure. After establishing link prediction using centrality measures, we dismantle the network based on Galton-Watson extinction probability. This study examines the 9/11 incident and measures the link prediction of the M-19 network. In curbing terrorist network activities, the elimination of a highly ranked node in the network is a condition sine qua non. We further examine the lethality of the network as well as network bonding to obtain the degree of cohesiveness, which is a crucial determinant for network survival. Our experimental results indicate that link prediction is vital in uncloaking a terror network, which is the core of counterterrorism. INDEX TERMS Modeling terrorist network, network bonding, modeling lethality, terrorist network cohesiveness, M-19 network, 4-centrality measures, Galton-Watson extinction.
Combating terrorist networks: An evolutionary approach
Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, 2006
This paper will briefly examine how Al Qaeda evolved from an insurgency assistance group to a terrorist network of sophistication and global reach. It argues that Al Qaeda filled the needs of Islamist insurgencies and then developed into a complex system of networks by co-opting other groups, hijacking their agendas and transforming their ideologies during the late 1990s to the present. Al Qaeda thus has global and local aspects. Locally-oriented "associate" organizations may have somewhat variant structures and will vary in their goals, targets, and ideology. In some ways, these groups are more vulnerable to discovery by local authorities and disruption. They tend to lack the training, professionalism, education and capacity to ensure strict security measures and discipline within their own ranks. They lack resources such as weaponry and human social capital, such as experience or specific kinds of knowledge that Al Qaeda has been able to provide. Because they are only loosely coupled to the parent organization, both parent and "child" network receive "force multiplier" benefits while minimizing risks and costs.