Potential changes in habitat suitability under climate change: Lessons learned from 15 years of species modelling (original) (raw)

Climate change is being implicated in changes in forest structure and function--from species range shifts to increased forest mortality to changes in phenology. Based on historical patterns, the potential for change and even the direction of change will likely be species specific and significant . We take an empirical-statistical modeling approach using species abundance data from well recognized national inventories. For the past 15 years, we have developed and refined abundance-based habitat models utilizing the latest statistical techniques and have generated tools and summaries to explore potential changes of tree species habitats in the eastern U.S. (www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas). The DISTRIB model uses a statistically robust, predictive data-mining tool, RandomForest, to predict and map the potential habitat changes for 134 tree species and 147 bird species in the eastern United States. Each species is modeled individually to show current and potential future habitats according to two emission scenarios and three climate models. We produce lists of species tha t have a tendency to increase, decrease, or stay the same for any region. Because we model potential suitable habitats of species, our results should not be interpreted as actual changes in distribution of the species. Nonetheless, our models predict climate change will have large impacts on suitable habitat for many tree species, especially under a high carbon emissions trajectory. To help interpret and supplement the DISTRIB outputs for trees, we assigned modification factors for potential issues that cannot be specifically assessed with the DISTRIB model. We also use a spatially explicit cellular model, SHIFT, to calculate colonization potentials for some species, based on the abundance of the species, the distances between occupied and unoccupied cells and the fragmented nature of the landscape. By combining results from the three efforts, we aim to prepare estimates of potential climate change impacts for forest managers that can be used to aid in management decisions under climate change.

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