Multi-criteria risk management with the use of DecernsMCDA: methods and case studies (original) (raw)
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A new framework, Decerns, for multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) of a wide range of practical problems on risk management is introduced. Decerns framework contains a library of modules that are the basis for two scalable systems: DecernsMCDA for analysis of multicriteria problems, and DecernsSDSS for multicriteria analysis of spatial options. DecernsMCDA includes well known MCDA methods and original methods for uncertainty treatment based on probabilistic approaches and fuzzy numbers. These MCDA methods are described along with a case study on analysis of multicriteria location problem.
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Decisions for environmental contamination problems are often complex due to the need to incorporate many differing measures and views. Strategies to support these decisions with a more systematic framework have evolved along with the development of computer capabilities and analytical tools. The decision process often involves incorporating subjective judgment that reflects public and stakeholder values, while also accounting for cost-benefit, toxicological health risk, and ecological risk assessment methods, along with methods to combine each of these measures. DECERNS (Decision Evaluation for Complex Environmental Risk Network Systems) has been developed as integrated decision support software for environmental problems. This tool combines multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with geographic information system (GIS) components to frame practical solutions. By also incorporating cost/benefit and risk assessment tools into a common web-based platform, DECERNS permits an integrated analysis that frames effective environmental decision making.
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Contribution of multi-criteria decision aid methods for natural risk analysis and management studies
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One major goal today is therefore to aid decision making by improving the quality, quantity, and reliability of the available information. This article presents recent developments based on evidential reasoning and multicriteria decision analysis to help decision making by considering information imperfections arising from several more or less reliable and possibly conflicting sources of information. This paper describe new methodologies and tools to support decision such as choice, ranking or sorting alternatives or solutions in the context of natural risks management. Those tools use theoretical backgrounds related both to multicriteria decision and „new“ uncertainty theories (evidential reasoning, fuzzy logics) that offer powerful and versatile frameworks for expert assessment. It is possible to take the decision but also to consider the data input quality and/or expert assessment imperfections coming from multiple sources.