Impacts of Climate Change on Human Development (original) (raw)

2007, Human Development Occasional Papers (1992-2007)

Abstract

Scientific research throughout the past decades has demonstrated how climatic changes have important impacts on the livelihoods of people around the world. For most of developing countries their level of structural and social vulnerability, are a dangerous combination and a formula for impacts of higher magnitude. Therefore, climatic phenomenon such as tropical storms, floods and droughts, more often become tragedies in these countries. This paper analyzes the impacts of such phenomenon in the human development of people across the world. Some of the climate change related issues analyzed in this paper are: droughts and water security, tropical cyclones and storms, rising tides, warming seas, coral bleaching, fish stocks, melting glaciers, heat waves and cold spells and the impact on human health. These shocks are discussed in this paper along with the differentiated impact on countries in various levels of human development. 1. DROUGHT AND WATER SECURITY Drought problems are projected for regions that depend heavily on glacial meltwater for their main dry season water supply (Barnett et al., 2005). Given that Approximately one-sixth of the Earth's population rely on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply and live within a low-reservoir storage domain, the consequences of projected changes for future water availability, predicted with high confidence and already diagnosed in some regions, will be adverse and severe (IPCC AR4, 2007). In the Andes, glacial meltwater supports river flow and water supply for tens of millions of people during the long dry season. Many small glaciers e.g. in Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru (Coudrain et al., 2005) will disappear within a few decades, adversely affecting people and ecosystems with rare and endemic species. Drought ranks as the natural hazard with the greatest negative impact on human livelihood (Barlow et al, 2006). On the other hand, within the existing and increasing context of growing population and climate change, demands for water will not be met, much less the demands of a growing economy. It appears that some areas of the most populated regions on Earth such as Asia are likely to 'run out of water' during the dry season if the current warming and glacial melting trends continue for several more decades (Barnett et al 2005). 1.1 Droughts-an increasing trend Worldwide the annual average number of reported droughts has increased more than threefold since the 1970s. During that decade there were 57 droughts, which correspond to an average number of six droughts per year, of which 33 percent were in Africa, 37 percent in Asia and 2 percent in Europe. In the 1990s the percentage of droughts in Africa jumped to 40 percent with a total 49 droughts reported in different parts of the region, mainly in East Africa. The 2000-2006 period saw an increase to 119 droughts, 46 of those in Africa, 34 in Asia and 12 in Europe (EM-DAT, 2007).

Figures (9)

Impacts of Climate Change on Human Development

Impacts of Climate Change on Human Development

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium. April 2007. Figure 1 Number of Droughts worldwide 1975-2005 (shaded area is a 10-year average

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium. April 2007. Figure 1 Number of Droughts worldwide 1975-2005 (shaded area is a 10-year average

Figure 2 Sub-Saharan Africa - drought reports per country 1970-2004 Source: M. Haile 2005.

Figure 2 Sub-Saharan Africa - drought reports per country 1970-2004 Source: M. Haile 2005.

Source: Sumaila et al 2006.

Source: Sumaila et al 2006.

Source: Data from the FIGIS — FAO Fisheries Global Information System. Pervasive over-fishing has led to a tripling of fish harvests over the last fifty years. As a result, the majorit of the world’s major fisheries are now over-fished, and some have collapsed entirely. Subsidies play a role in this over-used market. Subsidies speed up the development of overcapacity and consequently threaten the continued well being of wild fish stock. According to a Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimate, over 70% of the world’s fish species are either fully exploited or depleted. The dramatic increase of destructive fishing techniques worldwide destroys marine mammals and entire ecosystems. It is calculated that at the moment oceans are cleared at twice the pace of forests. Asia is more likely the regions with higher levels of over fishing, with capture 343% higher than 1975 (FAO).

Source: Data from the FIGIS — FAO Fisheries Global Information System. Pervasive over-fishing has led to a tripling of fish harvests over the last fifty years. As a result, the majorit of the world’s major fisheries are now over-fished, and some have collapsed entirely. Subsidies play a role in this over-used market. Subsidies speed up the development of overcapacity and consequently threaten the continued well being of wild fish stock. According to a Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimate, over 70% of the world’s fish species are either fully exploited or depleted. The dramatic increase of destructive fishing techniques worldwide destroys marine mammals and entire ecosystems. It is calculated that at the moment oceans are cleared at twice the pace of forests. Asia is more likely the regions with higher levels of over fishing, with capture 343% higher than 1975 (FAO).

6.2 Heat waves

6.2 Heat waves

Figure 6 Number of people killed by cold waves between 1975 and 2006 — by level of human development

Figure 6 Number of people killed by cold waves between 1975 and 2006 — by level of human development

Table 1 Estimates of Losses of Livestock to Winter Calamities (1944-2001) Source: Suttie, J.M. 2001, Herding Risk in Mongolia. Association, Scottish & Borders Branch, November 2001. UNDP project MON/02/305 Dzud in fact is a recurring natural disaster specific to Mongolia. Between 1945 and 2001, Mongolia suffered a total of 8 major dzud years that killed between 2 and 12 percent of the entire Mongolian herd of animals. As the patterns of climate change in Mongolia show climate is warmer and slightly drier and precipitations have tended to decrease slightly. The number and duration of hot days is increasing (Batima et al. 2005). All these are contributing factors to more frequent droughts that end up in the winter disaster called dzud. Harsh and long lasting summer drought is the main factor leading to harsh dzud during winter time. Mongolia experienced in 1998 the warmest year of the last century with duration of the heat wave reaching 70 days in the high mountains and 30 days in the Gobi desert. This apparently led to four consecutive years of drought that contributed significantly to the catastrophic dzud. Mongolia experienced its worst droughts in the summers of 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002, which affected 50-70% of Mongolian territory. About 3,000 water sources including 680 rivers and 760 lakes dried up during these long-lasting droughts (Davaa, 2004). Climate patterns of the last 30 years also show that snowfalls are starting earlier and lasting longer EUS LAULULTDS PICLIPIAli Ss Ue CLUE SELLY HIRIUUCU Weallitl, UdiolliUil UL UIS CUULUIILTY, SUVELINIICII SUULLULAL weakness and over-grazing (Hadrill, 2001). Re-stocking that has been one of the short term solution is just contributing to increasing vulnerability given the potential for further over-grazing. In 2000 the total livestock was over 29 million. By 2003 it had dropped to 25 million, a 14% decrease. The country is still struggling to recover from it. Vulnerability has increased at the household level, due to absolute dependency on privately owned livestock, new experienced herders and low income. Therefore, at the household level the impact has been devastating; destitution of families that lost all their animals, shortage of milk and dairy product for daily diet — putting at risk children’s nutrition, loss of transport and herding capabilities by losing riding horses, low birth rates of animals as many pregnant animals aborted due to freezing temperatures — leading to delays in recovery from livestock losses, etc. Negative impacts and magnitude of the Mongolian dzud are comparable to the most drastic droughts hitting the horn of Africa: loss of life, livestock, livelihoods, property, as well as dwindling supplies of pasture, water and food. Dzud are shorter in time but as intense as droughts in terms of human and animal casualties and losses. fee we Uk le » wi ae he er = wi a pee ia econ cee pee

Table 1 Estimates of Losses of Livestock to Winter Calamities (1944-2001) Source: Suttie, J.M. 2001, Herding Risk in Mongolia. Association, Scottish & Borders Branch, November 2001. UNDP project MON/02/305 Dzud in fact is a recurring natural disaster specific to Mongolia. Between 1945 and 2001, Mongolia suffered a total of 8 major dzud years that killed between 2 and 12 percent of the entire Mongolian herd of animals. As the patterns of climate change in Mongolia show climate is warmer and slightly drier and precipitations have tended to decrease slightly. The number and duration of hot days is increasing (Batima et al. 2005). All these are contributing factors to more frequent droughts that end up in the winter disaster called dzud. Harsh and long lasting summer drought is the main factor leading to harsh dzud during winter time. Mongolia experienced in 1998 the warmest year of the last century with duration of the heat wave reaching 70 days in the high mountains and 30 days in the Gobi desert. This apparently led to four consecutive years of drought that contributed significantly to the catastrophic dzud. Mongolia experienced its worst droughts in the summers of 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002, which affected 50-70% of Mongolian territory. About 3,000 water sources including 680 rivers and 760 lakes dried up during these long-lasting droughts (Davaa, 2004). Climate patterns of the last 30 years also show that snowfalls are starting earlier and lasting longer EUS LAULULTDS PICLIPIAli Ss Ue CLUE SELLY HIRIUUCU Weallitl, UdiolliUil UL UIS CUULUIILTY, SUVELINIICII SUULLULAL weakness and over-grazing (Hadrill, 2001). Re-stocking that has been one of the short term solution is just contributing to increasing vulnerability given the potential for further over-grazing. In 2000 the total livestock was over 29 million. By 2003 it had dropped to 25 million, a 14% decrease. The country is still struggling to recover from it. Vulnerability has increased at the household level, due to absolute dependency on privately owned livestock, new experienced herders and low income. Therefore, at the household level the impact has been devastating; destitution of families that lost all their animals, shortage of milk and dairy product for daily diet — putting at risk children’s nutrition, loss of transport and herding capabilities by losing riding horses, low birth rates of animals as many pregnant animals aborted due to freezing temperatures — leading to delays in recovery from livestock losses, etc. Negative impacts and magnitude of the Mongolian dzud are comparable to the most drastic droughts hitting the horn of Africa: loss of life, livestock, livelihoods, property, as well as dwindling supplies of pasture, water and food. Dzud are shorter in time but as intense as droughts in terms of human and animal casualties and losses. fee we Uk le » wi ae he er = wi a pee ia econ cee pee

Data source: WHO Global burden of disease 2004 and HDR 2006. The same way a country’s GDP influences malaria risk, malaria has been shown to decrease economic growth and therefore development. In severely malarious countries there have been reported a decrease of 1.3 growth rate percentage points per year (WHO 2001). Changes in climate pose an additional challenge for poor countries to control the burden of malaria. It is a vicious cycle made worst by climatic changes. The economic development necessary for improvements in the public health infrastructure is directly hindered by the presence of malaria itself and it is made worst by increasing trend of extreme weather events. As seen on the graph below, countries with the lowest levels of human development such as Niger, Burkin Faso and Guinea present the highest levels of malaria mortality. On the other hand, countries with medium levels of human development such as Thailand and Egypt present lower levels or malaria mortality rates.

Data source: WHO Global burden of disease 2004 and HDR 2006. The same way a country’s GDP influences malaria risk, malaria has been shown to decrease economic growth and therefore development. In severely malarious countries there have been reported a decrease of 1.3 growth rate percentage points per year (WHO 2001). Changes in climate pose an additional challenge for poor countries to control the burden of malaria. It is a vicious cycle made worst by climatic changes. The economic development necessary for improvements in the public health infrastructure is directly hindered by the presence of malaria itself and it is made worst by increasing trend of extreme weather events. As seen on the graph below, countries with the lowest levels of human development such as Niger, Burkin Faso and Guinea present the highest levels of malaria mortality. On the other hand, countries with medium levels of human development such as Thailand and Egypt present lower levels or malaria mortality rates.

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