Impacts of Climate Change on Human Development (original) (raw)

2007, Human Development Occasional Papers (1992-2007)

Scientific research throughout the past decades has demonstrated how climatic changes have important impacts on the livelihoods of people around the world. For most of developing countries their level of structural and social vulnerability, are a dangerous combination and a formula for impacts of higher magnitude. Therefore, climatic phenomenon such as tropical storms, floods and droughts, more often become tragedies in these countries. This paper analyzes the impacts of such phenomenon in the human development of people across the world. Some of the climate change related issues analyzed in this paper are: droughts and water security, tropical cyclones and storms, rising tides, warming seas, coral bleaching, fish stocks, melting glaciers, heat waves and cold spells and the impact on human health. These shocks are discussed in this paper along with the differentiated impact on countries in various levels of human development. 1. DROUGHT AND WATER SECURITY Drought problems are projected for regions that depend heavily on glacial meltwater for their main dry season water supply (Barnett et al., 2005). Given that Approximately one-sixth of the Earth's population rely on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply and live within a low-reservoir storage domain, the consequences of projected changes for future water availability, predicted with high confidence and already diagnosed in some regions, will be adverse and severe (IPCC AR4, 2007). In the Andes, glacial meltwater supports river flow and water supply for tens of millions of people during the long dry season. Many small glaciers e.g. in Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru (Coudrain et al., 2005) will disappear within a few decades, adversely affecting people and ecosystems with rare and endemic species. Drought ranks as the natural hazard with the greatest negative impact on human livelihood (Barlow et al, 2006). On the other hand, within the existing and increasing context of growing population and climate change, demands for water will not be met, much less the demands of a growing economy. It appears that some areas of the most populated regions on Earth such as Asia are likely to 'run out of water' during the dry season if the current warming and glacial melting trends continue for several more decades (Barnett et al 2005). 1.1 Droughts-an increasing trend Worldwide the annual average number of reported droughts has increased more than threefold since the 1970s. During that decade there were 57 droughts, which correspond to an average number of six droughts per year, of which 33 percent were in Africa, 37 percent in Asia and 2 percent in Europe. In the 1990s the percentage of droughts in Africa jumped to 40 percent with a total 49 droughts reported in different parts of the region, mainly in East Africa. The 2000-2006 period saw an increase to 119 droughts, 46 of those in Africa, 34 in Asia and 12 in Europe (EM-DAT, 2007).