Household projections by the headship rates method: The case of Serbia (original) (raw)

The headship rates method (HRM) of household projections based on the share of household heads in the total population of the same demographic characteristics (age, sex, nationality, marital status, etc.) is the most commonly used method, especially by statistical institutes and planning institutions. The specific rates of household heads by age are calculated by dividing the number of household holders of a certain age with the total number of residents of the appropriate age. The future number of households is then simply projected on the basis of population projections by age and assumptions about the future changes of HR. The HRM is based on the projection of the future age structure of the population. In that sense, the choice of methods of population projection, as well as the method of projecting HR-s have determining impact on the outcome of household projections. Given the methodological inconsistency typical for official population projections in Serbia and significant dif...