Fine-resolution regional climate model simulations of the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones near Australia (original) (raw)
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Simulations of observed interannual variability of tropical cyclone formation east of Australia
Atmospheric Science Letters, 2003
A modelling system comprising a regional climate model nested within a GCM is used to simulate the observed interannual variability of tropical cyclone formation off the east coast of Australia. The model's interannual variability of cyclone formation is weaker than that observed, with shortcomings in the model's simulation of vertical wind shear the likely cause.
Tropical cyclone trends in the Australian region
Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 2008
Tropical cyclone trends in the Australian region are examined using the Bureau of Meteorology best track data. Here the focus is on analyzing differences in trends between the eastern and western subregions of the Australian formation region, under the assumption that any spurious trends in the best track data due to changes in observational practices would be less noticeable in differences between two adjacent portions. Substantial differences in trends are found between the two subregions, with the number, average maximum intensity, and duration at the severe category intensities of tropical cyclones increasing since 1980 in the west but decreasing (in number) or exhibiting no trend (in intensity, severe category duration) in the east. Analyses of trends in atmospheric variables known to be related to tropical cyclone characteristics also indicate substantial differences between the two subregions.
Journal of Climate, 2008
This study investigates the role of large-scale environmental factors, notably sea surface temperature (SST), low-level relative vorticity, and deep-tropospheric vertical wind shear, in the interannual variability of November–April tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Australian region. Extensive correlation analyses were carried out between TC frequency and intensity and the aforementioned large-scale parameters, using TC data for 1970–2006 from the official Australian TC dataset. Large correlations were found between the seasonal number of TCs and SST in the Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 regions. These correlations were greatest (−0.73) during August–October, immediately preceding the Australian TC season. The correlations remain almost unchanged for the July–September period and therefore can be viewed as potential seasonal predictors of the forthcoming TC season. In contrast, only weak correlations (<+0.37) were found with the local SST in the region north of Australia where many TCs ...
Australian …, 2008
The potential risks to life and property from tropical cyclones (TCs) in northern Australia are significant and the accuracy of historical TC data-sets is of special interest to those involved in the quantitative assessment of these risks, especially in the marine environment. To this end, the offshore oil and gas industry in northwestern Australia has collectively been at the forefront of TC risk monitoring, modelling and risk assessment since the early 1970s. This work has underpinned the extensive investments onshore (pipelines, ports, processing and housing), offshore (pipelines, platforms, floating production systems),
Australian East-Coast Cyclones. Part I: Synoptic Overview and Case Study
Monthly Weather Review, 1987
The development of Hurricane Catarina over the western South Atlantic Ocean in March 2004 marks the first time that the existence of a hurricane has been confirmed by analysis and satellite imagery in the South Atlantic basin. The storm undergoes a complex life cycle, beginning as an extratropical precursor that moves east-southeastward off the Brazilian coast and toward the midlatitudes. Its eastward progress is halted and the system is steered back westward toward the Brazilian coast as it encounters a strengthening dipole-blocking structure east of the South American continent. Entering the large region of weak vertical shear that characterizes this blocking pattern, Catarina begins a tropical transition process over anomalously cool 25°C ocean waters above which an elevated potential intensity is supported by the cold upper-level air associated with the trough component of the block. As the convective outflow from the developing tropical system reinforces the ridge component of the dipole block, the storm is accelerated westward toward the Santa Catarina province of Brazil and makes landfall there as a nominal category-1 hurricane, causing extensive damage with its heavy rains and strong winds.
The Australian Boxing Day Storm of 1998—Synoptic Description and Numerical Simulations
Weather and Forecasting, 2000
An intense low pressure system formed in the Bass Strait region of southeastern Australia during the Boxing Day long weekend of 25-28 December 1998. The explosive development of this low commenced on 26 December (Boxing Day) and reached peak intensity on 27 December 1998 with mean wind speeds reported in the 50-60kt range. The event is referred to, for simplicity, as the Boxing Day storm.
Rainfall distribution of five landfalling tropical cyclones in the northwestern Australian region
Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 2013
Rain gauge data, satellite IR brightness temperature and radar-estimated rain rate for five tropical cyclones from the 2005-06 to 2009-10 seasons that made landfall along the northwestern coast of Australia are analysed. It is the first time that the spatial rainfall distribution of landfalling tropical cyclones in the southern hemisphere has been systematically investigated. It is found that the distributions of rainfall are more concentrated in the right side of the track of the landfall tropical cyclones, which is the offshore flow position. Potential mechanisms responsible for this observed asymmetry in rainfall distribution are discussed. These include the tropical cyclone motion direction, deep-tropospheric vertical wind shear and land-sea contrast in surface properties. Topography is considered to have less effect since Western Australia is relatively flat. The rainfall maxima are found in the front and downshear quadrants for these tropical cyclones, which is consistent with previous studies. The changes in vertical wind shear when these tropical cyclones moved to the south are largely attributed to the prevailing environmental flow. Three numerical simulations are performed; one with a realistic land surface, one with all topography removed and one with all land removed. These simulations show that the land surface effects play an important role in determining the asymmetry in rainfall distribution, which explains why in some cases the observed maximum rainfall does not follow closely the vertical wind shear direction when making landfall.