An Integrated Decision-Support Information System on the Impact of Extreme Natural Hazards on Critical Infrastructure (original) (raw)

Preventing and Managing Risks Induced by Natural Hazards to Critical Infrastructures

Infrastructures

A procedure for assessing and monitoring the response of critical infrastructures when subjected to natural hazards is proposed in this paper, with a particular focus on bridges and viaducts, which are very peculiar and strategic assets of transport networks. The proposed procedure is characterized by three levels of analysis (L1–L3) with increasing reliability and complexity. The first level of analysis (L1) is carried out by evaluating a Class of Attention in line with the approach that is proposed by the Italian Guidelines for the safety assessment of bridges. The second level (L2) of analysis requires the definition of a numerical model of the bridge. The third level (L3) of analysis relies on the seismic response data from a seismic monitoring network. For all the three levels of the proposed procedure, data are collected in the CIPCast Decision Support System (CIPCast-DSS), a WebGIS platform developed by ENEA to support the decision-making process related to risk prevention an...

Network-risk: an open GIS toolbox for estimating the implications of transportation network damage due to natural hazards, tested for Bucharest, Romania

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2020

Due to their widespread and continuous expansion, transportation networks are considerably exposed to natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, landslides or hurricanes. The vulnerability of specific segments and structures among bridges, tunnels, pumps or storage tanks can translate not only into direct losses but also into significant indirect losses at the systemic level. Cascading effects such as post-event traffic congestion, building debris or tsunamis can contribute to an even greater level of risk. To support the effort of modeling the natural hazards' implications at the full transportation network scale, we developed a new applicable framework, relying on (i) GIS to define, analyze and represent transportation networks; (ii) methods for determining the probability of network segments to fail due to natural-hazard effects; (iii) Monte Carlo simulation for multiple scenario generation; (iv) methods to analyze the implications of connectivity loss on emergency intervention times and transit disruption; and (v) correlations with other vulnerability and risk indicators. Currently, the framework is integrated into ArcGIS Desktop as a toolbox entitled "Networkrisk", which makes use of the ModelBuilder functions and is free to download and modify. Network-risk is an attempt to bring together interdisciplinary research with the goal of creating an automated solution to deliver insights on how a transportation network can be affected by natural hazards, directly and indirectly, assisting in risk evaluation and mitigation planning. In this article we present and test Network-risk at the full urban scale for the road network of Bucharest. This city is one of Europe's most exposed capitals to earthquakes, with high seismic-hazard values and a vulnerable building stock but also significant traffic congestion problems not yet accounted for in risk analyses and risk reduction strategies.

Risk Assessment of Terrestrial Transportation Infrastructures Exposed to Extreme Events

Infrastructures, 2021

Keeping transport links open in adverse conditions and being able to restore connections quickly after extreme events are important and demanding tasks for infrastructure owners/operators. This paper is developed within the H2020 project SAFEWAY, whose main goal is to increase the resilience of terrestrial transportation infrastructure. Risk-based approaches are excellent tools to aid in the decision-making process of planning maintenance and implementation of risk mitigation measures with the ultimate goal of reducing risk and increasing resilience. This paper presents a framework for quantitative risk assessment which guides an integrated assessment of the risk components: hazard, exposure, vulnerability and consequences of a malfunctioning transportation infrastructure. The paper guides the identification of failure modes for transportation infrastructure exposed to extreme events (natural and human-made) and provides models for and examples of hazard, vulnerability and risk asse...

Risk assessment for an Italian road network due to an extreme earthquake hazard scenario and the associated landslide cascading effects

2016

Natural hazards, such as earthquakes, have the potential to cause damage to transport infrastructure networks and can lead to significant network disruption and associated losses. The INFRARISK project (Novel Indicators for Identifying Critical INFRAstructure at RISK from Natural Hazards) is developing methodologies to assess the impact of extreme natural hazard events on critical transport infrastructure networks. To demonstrate the systematic application of the proposed methodologies, a road network in Northern Italy is being assessed due to an extreme earthquake hazard scenario and the associated landslide cascading effects. The road network is distributed over an area of approximately 990km 2 and is located along the Scandinavian-Mediterranean corridor of the TEN-T network, which is considered a vital axis for the European economy. The vulnerability of the road network is assessed according to the seismic vulnerability of the 340 bridges and 30 tunnels located along the network,...

SCENARIO SISMICO: a tool for seismic risk analysis and real time damage scenarios implementation

2006

Scenario Sismico" is a GIS tool designed and implemented by the authors for the simulation and the representation of real time damage scenarios in Liguria Region. The specific aim of the tool is to support local Civil Protection departments and government officials for the emergency management, during the first hours after an earthquake event. "Scenario Sismico" can be as well regarded as an useful tool to help formulating general strategies for earthquake mitigation and disaster response planning. Thanks to its user-friendly framework, implemented within ALOV Map/TMJava application, its use does not require any specific GIS expertise. Once the earthquake scenario is set (by specifying the epicentre position, the magnitude and the hypocentral depth) the expected hazard, the physical damage to buildings and the consequences to people, expressed in terms of possible range, are automatically obtained and displayed in terms of thematic maps and databases. The results of the vulnerability and of the exposure analyses for all the Liguria Region are as well provided in terms of maps and databases. This paper is addressed to the presentation and to the description of the software and of the methodological framework at the basis of the "Scenario Sismico" tool. The simulation of an earthquake event is moreover presented, in order to show the effectiveness of the real time damage assessment resulting from "Scenario Sismico" in supporting the emergency management.

Decision Making for Extreme Events: Modeling Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies to Aid Mitigation and Response Planning

Review of Policy Research, 2009

Recent tragedies such as Hurricane Katrina, 9/11, and the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake have revealed a need for methods to evaluate and plan for the impact of extreme events on critical infrastructure. In particular, awareness has been raised of the threat that a major disruption will lead to cascading failures that cross boundaries between interdependent infrastructure sectors, greatly magnifying human and economic impacts. To assist in planning for such extreme events, researchers are developing modeling tools to aid in making decisions about how best to protect critical infrastructures. We present some of the capabilities of this modeling approach as well as some of the challenges faced in developing such applications based on our experience with the Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIPDSS) model, developed for use by the Department of Homeland Security. A set of disruptions to road and telecommunication infrastructures is implemented in CIPDSS and the modeled disruptions to the original infrastructure as well as cascading effects on other infrastructure sectors are discussed. These simulations provide insights into the potential of this approach.

Developing Decision Support Tools for Confronting Seismic Hazards

: Following a natural disaster, such as earthquake, there are two critical factors for consideration; damage assessment and decision-making. In order to address these issues, a system for post-earthquake damage and usability assessment of buildings has been designed and implemented, in cooperation with the Greek Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization (EPPO). Using GIS technology and an expert system for analyzing building reliability parameters, the system serves as a decision making tool for setting up and carrying out efficiently an operation of post earthquake emergency building inspections. This work describes the design of the system components, current implementation status and outlines plans for further development. 1

The Crisis Platform: A Cross-Border Platform for Risk Assessment and Management

2nd Croatian Conference on Earthquake Engineering ‒ 2CroCEE

This paper aims to describe the CRISIS web-based platform (WBP) in all its parts and functionalities. The platform is the main result of the two-year EU-funded project CRISIS (Comprehensive RISk assessment of basic services and transport InfraStructure). It has been developed by EUCENTRE (European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering) using the most up-to-date web programming frameworks and technologies. The CRISIS WBP is a user-friendly tool intended to support disaster and emergency management authorities in case of earthquakes and/or seismo-induced landslides in the cross-border region of Albania, North Macedonia, and Greece. It has been designed to collect, organise, and visualise for the project target area: i) the exposure data of educational facilities, health facilities, and bridges; ii) the seismic and landslide hazard data; iii) the earthquake damage scenarios (calculated both for selected historical events and in real-time); and iv) the landslide ris...

UNHARMED FRAMEWORK REPORT : A co-creation approach for the development and use of decision support systems for disaster risk reduction

2019

Individual or entity with the capacity to effect and / or influence change. Algorithm: Set of step-by-step instructions that guide a computer in solving a set of equations. Application: See Case study specific DSS. Application process: Process of applying the generic disaster risk reduction DSS to a specific case study by selecting drivers, models, and indicators; by populating the models with data; and calibrating model parameters. Average recurrence interval (ARI): The average or expected value of the periods between exceedances of a given rainfall total accumulated over a given duration. It is implicit in this definition that the periods between exceedances are generally random (Bureau of Meteorology, 2019). Case study (specific) application: See Case study specific DSS. Case study specific DSS: Application of the generic natural hazard risk reduction DSS to a specific case region. Case regions in the BNHCRC project are Greater Adelaide, Greater Melbourne and Tasmania. Champion: Power user who actively stimulates the uptake of the DSS in their organisation. Champions seem to be personally inspired, and their actions in turn inspire behaviour of others. They often fulfil a critical role in increasing the practical value of the system as they have a direct link to the users. Computer model: Set of equations that represent the interactions between the various components of a real system and that can be solved using a computer algorithm. Decision support system (DSS): An interactive software system that provides information from data and models in such a way to support decision makers to more effectively solve decision problems (Van Delden et. al., 2011a). Development process: The way DSSs for natural hazard risk reduction are developed. This involves the whole process related to the development of the modelling framework. This is a complete, and standalone software tool that can be tailored for use to a case study by a software engineer or modeller who populates the generic DSS with data and configures selected models within the generic DSS. Disaster risk: The potential loss of life, injury, or destroyed or damaged assets which could occur to a system, society or a community in a specific period of time, determined probabilistically as a function of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity (UNGA, 2017). For disaster risk captured by models shown within this approach and report, capacity is not treated explicitly but instead is a component of either the hazard or vulnerability model for respective risks. Disaster risk assessment: A qualitative or quantitative approach to determine the nature and extent of disaster risk by analysing potential hazards and evaluating existing conditions of exposure and vulnerability that together could harm people, property, services, livelihoods and the environment on which they depend (UNGA, 2017).