Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants (original) (raw)
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IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates for the prevalence of diabetes for 2015 and 2040
Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice, 2017
To produce current estimates of the national, regional and global impact of diabetes for 2015 and 2040. Methods: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify data sources on the prevalence of diabetes from studies conducted in the period from 1990 to 2015. An analytic hierarchy process was used to select the most appropriate studies for each country, and estimates for countries without data were modelled using extrapolation from similar countries that had available data. A logistic regression model was used to generate smoothed age-specific estimates, which were applied to UN population estimates. Results: 540 data sources were reviewed, of which 196 sources from 111 countries were selected. In 2015 it was estimated that there were 415 million (uncertainty interval: 340-536 million) people with diabetes aged 20-79 years, 5.0 million deaths attributable to diabetes, and the total global health expenditure due to diabetes was estimated at 673 billion US dollars. Three quarters (75%) of those with diabetes were living in low-and middleincome countries. The number of people with diabetes aged 20-79 years was predicted to rise to 642 million (uncertainty interval: 521-829 million) by 2040. Conclusion: Diabetes prevalence, deaths attributable to diabetes, and health expenditure due to diabetes continue to rise across the globe with important social, financial and health system implications.
The Lancet, 2023
Background Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. Methods Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. Findings In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6•1% (5•8-6•5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9•3% [8•7-9•9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12•3% [11•5-13•0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76•1% (73•1-79•5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96•0% (95•1-96•8) of diabetes cases and 95•4% (94•9-95•9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52•2% (25•5-71•8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24•3% (18•5-30•4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1•31 billion (1•22-1•39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16•8% (16•1-17•6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11•3% (10•8-11•9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43•6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. Interpretation Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. F
The changing world demography of type 2 diabetes
Diabetes-metabolism Research and Reviews, 2002
In recent years it has been estimated that the current global prevalence of type 2 diabetes amounts to about 150 million patients. Projections suggest that by the year 2025 the number of prevalent patients in the world will reach approximately 300 million. It is assumed that the increase in the number of patients will be most pronounced in nations currently undergoing socioeconomic development including increasing urbanization. The technique used to provide these estimates is based on results from available, contemporary survey results, combined with expected future trends in demographic indicators. We suggest that the currently available methods for the estimation of the future global burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus yield underestimates. Further modifications and validity tests of the modelling techniques are necessary in order to develop a reliable instrument to globally monitor the effects of the struggle against the diabetes problem. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Global burden of diabetes, 1995-2025: prevalence, numerical estimates, and projections
Diabetes Care, 1998
OBJECTIVE -To estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people with diabetes who are ^20 years of age in all countries of the world for three points in time, i.e., the years 1995, 2000, and 2025, and to calculate additional parameters, such as sex ratio, urbanrural ratio, and the age structure of the diabetic population.
Global burden of diabetes: regional disparities in prevalence, incidence, and mortality
Journal of Health Inequalities
Objectives: To study the trends in diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality over time and by region of the world. Material and methods: An online literature search was carried out in PubMed for studies reporting data on the time trends of the prevalence and of the incidence of diabetes. Studies reporting the most recent trends were selected to represent each region of the world and with the aim to cover a time span as long as possible. For mortality trends, diabetes deaths registered in the World Health Organisation (WHO) mortality database by November 2018 were extracted by gender and five-year age group for a selection of countries and for the longest period available (from 1950 to 2015). Results: Thirty-two and 11 articles were included in the analysis of trends of diabetes prevalence and incidence, respectively. The prevalence and incidence of diabetes are increasing globally. A study of the trends on a finer geographic scale revealed contrasting results and confirmed a lack of trend data, notably in Eastern Europe and other low-and middle-income regions. Mortality is increasing in South and Central America and Africa, but is stabilising in the other regions of the world. Conclusions: Trends in diabetes prevalence and incidence showed disparities among different groups of populations, which could be explained by disparities in lifestyle and access to medical facilities or could be related to the obesity epidemic. This study revealed important data gaps that have to be bridged to obtain a more complete and more accurate picture of the worldwide diabetes epidemic.
Statistics in Medicine, 2005
Childhood diabetes is one of the major non-communicable diseases in children under 15 years of age. It requires a life-long insulin treatment and may lead to serious complications. Along with the worldwide increase in the incidence several countries have recently reported a decreasing trend in the age of onset of the disease. The aim of this study is to analyse long-term data on the incidence of the childhood diabetes in Finland from the birth cohorts perspective. The annual incidence data were available for the period 1965-1996 which translates into 1951-1996 birth cohorts. Hence the data consist of completely and partially observed cohorts. Bayesian modelling was employed in the analysis. Several di erent priors and cohort combinations were tried in order to determine the sensitivity of the results. The cumulative birth cohort incidence of diabetes was determined to have an increasing average annual trend of 2.5 per cent. Although the average birth cohort-speciÿc age of onset was estimated to have decreased slightly over the years of observation, the trend could be a result of random variation.
Lifetime risk and projected population prevalence of diabetes
Diabetologia, 2008
Aims/hypothesis With incidence rates for diabetes increasing rapidly worldwide, estimates of the magnitude of the impact on population health are required. We aimed to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes, the number of years lived free of, and the number of years lived with diabetes for the Australian adult population from the year 2000, and to project prevalence of diabetes to the year 2025. Methods Multi-state life-tables were constructed to simulate the progress of a cohort of 25-year-old Australians. National mortality rates were combined with incidence rates of diabetes and the RR of mortality in people with diabetes derived from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (a national, population-based study of 11,247 adults aged ≥25 years). Results If the rates of mortality and diabetes incidence observed over the period 2000-2005 continue, 38.0% (95% uncertainty interval 36.6-38.9) of 25-year-olds would be expected to develop diabetes at some time throughout their life. On average, a 25-year-old Australian will live a further 56 years, 48 of these free of diabetes. On average, a 45year-old person with diabetes can expect to live 6 years less than a person free of diabetes. The prevalence of diabetes is projected to rise from 7.6% in 2000 to 11.4% by 2025. Conclusions/interpretation If we maintain current diabetes incidence rates, more than a third of individuals will develop diabetes within their lifetime and in Australia there will an additional 1 million cases of diabetes by the year 2025.