The Impact of TTIP The underlying economic model and comparisons (original) (raw)

2014, Social Science Research Network

Abstract

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means-electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise-without the prior permission of CEPS.

Loading...

Loading Preview

Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. You can download the paper by clicking the button above.

References (81)

  1. Ackerman, F. (2005), "The Shrinking Gains from Trade: A Critical Assessment of Doha Round Projections", GDAE Working Paper No. 05-01, Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts University, Medford, MA.
  2. Alemanno, A. and A.C.M. Meuwese (2013), "What role for impact assessment in non- legislative rule-making?", European Law Journal, 19(1):76-92.
  3. Anderson, J.E. and E. van Wincoop (2003), "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle", American Economic Review, 93(1):170-192.
  4. Arkolakis, C., A. Costinot and A. Rodriguez-Claire (2012), "New trade models, same old gains?", American Economic Review, 102(1):94-130.
  5. Armington, P.S. (1969), "A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production", IMF Staff Papers 16(1), International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C., pp. 159-178.
  6. Atlantic Council, Bertlesmann Foundation and the British Embassy in Washington (2013), "TTIP and the Fifty States: Jobs and Growth from Coast to Coast", September.
  7. Bchir, M.H., Y. Decreux, J-L. Guerin and S. Jean (2002), "MIRAGE, a Computable General Equilibrium Model for Trade Policy Analysis", CEPII Working Paper No. 2002-17, CEPII, Paris.
  8. Boeter, S. and L. Savard (2013), "The labour market in CGE models", in P. Dixon and D. Jorgenson (eds), The Handbook of CGE Modelling, Amsterdam: North Holland.
  9. Brown, D.K. and R.M. Stern (1989), "U.S.-Canada bilateral tariff elimination: The role of product differentiation and market structure", in R.C. Feenstra (ed), Trade policies for international competitiveness, Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
  10. Brown, D.K. and R.M. Stern (2001), "Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services", Review of International Economics, 9(2):262- 286.
  11. Carr, D., J.R. Markusen and K.E. Maskus (2001), "Estimating the knowledge capital model of the multinational enterprise", American Economic Review, 91:3:693-708.
  12. CEPII/ATLASS (2010), "The Economic Impact of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the European Union and Korea", Report for the European Commission -DG Trade.
  13. CEPR (2013a), "Reducing Transatlantic Barriers to Trade and Investment, An Economic Assessment", Final Project Report under Implementing Framework Contract TRADE10/A2/A16 by Francois et al.
  14. CEPR (2013b), "Estimating the Economic Impact on the UK of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) Agreement between the European Union and the United States", Final Project Report.
  15. Copenhagen Economics (2009), "Assessment of Barriers to Trade and Investment between the EU and Japan", Final Report.
  16. Copenhagen Economics and J. Francois (2007), "Economic Impact of a Potential Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the European Union and South Korea", March.
  17. Cox, D. and R. Harris (1985), "Trade liberalization and industrial organization: Some estimates for Canada", Journal of Political Economy, 93 (February): 115-45.
  18. Del Gatto, M., G. Mion and G. Ireo Paolo Ottaviano (2006), CEPR Discussion Papers 5730, CEPR, London.
  19. Dunlop, C.A., M. Maggetti, C.M. Radaelli and D.J. Russel (2012), "The Many Uses of Regulatory Impact Assessment: A Meta-Analysis of EU and UK Cases", Regulation and Governance, Vol. 6(1), pp. 23-45.
  20. Ecorys (2009a), "Non-Tariff Measures in EU-US Trade and Investment. An Economic Analysis".
  21. Ecorys (2009b), "The impact of Free Trade Agreements in the OECD. The impact of an EU-US FTA, EU-Japan FTA and EU-Australia/New Zealand FTA".
  22. Ecorys (2012), "Study on "EU-US HLGroup -Final Report", Report to the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation, October.
  23. Ethier, W. (1982), "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade", American Economic Review, 72:389-405.
  24. European Commission (2006), "Handbook for Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment", DG Trade, March.
  25. European Commission and Government of Canada (2008), "Assessing the costs and benefits of a closer EU-Canada Economic Partnership".
  26. European Commission (2009), "Impact Assessment Guidelines", SEC(2009) 92 (http://ec.europa.eu/smart- regulation/impact/commission_guidelines/docs/iag_2009_en.pdf).
  27. European Commission (2012), Impact Assessment Report on EU-Japan Trade Relations accompanying the document, "Recommendation for a Council Decision authorising the opening of negotiations on a Free Trade Agreement between the European Union and Japan", Staff Working Document 209 final, Brussels, 18.7.2012.
  28. European Commission (2013a), Impact Assessment on the future of the EU-US trade relations accompanying the document "Recommendation for a Council Decision authorising the opening of negotiations on a comprehensive trade and investments agreement, called the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the European Union and the United States of America", Staff Working Document 68 final, Strasbourg, 12 March.
  29. European Commission (2013b), "Opinion: DG TRADE -Impact Assessment on the Future of the EU-US Trade Relations", Impact Assessment Board, SEC (2013).
  30. Feenstra, R.C (2003), "Advanced International Trade: Theory and evidence", Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  31. Felbermayr, G., B. Heid and S. Lehwald (2013), "Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP): Who benefits from a free trade deal? Part 1: Macroeconomic Effects", Bertelsmann Stiftung.
  32. Fillat Castejon, C., J. Francois and Woerz (2008), "Trade through FDI: Investing in Services", IIDE Discussion Papers.
  33. Fontagne, L., J. Gourdon and S. Jean (2013), ''Translatantic Trade: Whiter Partnership, Which Economic Consequences? '' CEPII Policy Brief No. 12, CEPII, Paris September.
  34. Francois, J. (2004), "Assessing the Impact of Trade Policy on Labor Markets and Production", Economie Internationale, CEPII, Paris.
  35. Francois, J., B. Hoekman and J. Woerz (2007), "Does Gravity Apply to Non-Tangibles: Gravity Estimates of Trade and FDI Openness in Services", Plenary Paper, European Trade Study Group Meeting, Athens, September.
  36. Francois, J. and O. Pindyuk (2013), "Modelling the Effects of Free Trade Agreements between the EU and Canada, USA and Moldova/Georgia/Armenia on the Austrian Economy: Model Simulations for Trade Policy Analysis", FIW-Research Reports 2012/13, No. 03, January.
  37. Francois, J., O. Pindyuk and J. Woerz (2008), "International Transaction in Services: Data on International Trade and FDI in the Service Sectors", Institute for International Development Economics.
  38. Francois, J. and G. Wignarajan (2008), "Economic Implications of Asian Integration", Global Economy Journal, 8:1-46.
  39. Frankel, J.A. and D. Romer (1999), "Does trade cause growth", American Economic Review, 89(3):379-399.
  40. Fritsch, O., C.M. Radaelli and L. Schrefler (2013), "Comparing the content of the regulatory impact assessments in the UK and the EU", Public Money & Management, Vol. 33(6), pp. 445-452.
  41. Gelauff, G.M.M. and A.M. Lejour (2005), "Five Lisbon highlights: The economic impact of reaching these targets", CPB Document 104. GTAP (2014), www.gtap.org.
  42. Hanslow, K., T. Phamduc, and G. Verikios (2000), "The Structure of the FTAP model" Conference Paper, Third Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Melbourne, June.
  43. Harris, R. (1984), "Applied general equilibrium analysis of small open economies with scale economies and imperfect competition", American Economic Review , 74 (December): 1016- 32.
  44. Helpman, E. and P. Krugman (1985), Market Structure and International Trade, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  45. Hertel, T.W. (ed) (1997), Global trade analysis: Modelling and applications, New York: Cambridge University Press.
  46. Kommerskollegium (2013), "Potential Effects from an EU-US Free Trade Agreement -Sweden in Focus", Report.
  47. Konan, D.E. and A. Van Assche (2004), "Regulation, Market Structure and Service Trade Liberalization: A CGE Analysis", GTAP Working Papers.
  48. Koyama, T. and S.S. Golub (2006), "OECD's FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index: Revision and Extension to more Economies", OECD Working Papers on International Investment.
  49. Krugman, P.R. (1979), "Increasing Returns, Monopolistic Competition, and International Trade", Journal of International Economics, 9:469-479.
  50. Krugman, P.R. (1980), "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade", American Economic Review, 70:950-959.
  51. Lejour, A. and R. A. de Mooij (2005), "Turkish Delight -Does Turkey's accession to the EU bring economic benefits?", CESifo Working Paper Series, No. 1183.
  52. Lejour, A.M. and R. Nahuis (2005), "R&D spillovers and growth: Specialisation matters", Review of International Economics, 13, pp. 927-944.
  53. Lejour, A.M. and H. Rojas-Romagosa (2006), "Foreign direct investment in applied general equilibrium models: Overview of the literature", CPB Memorandum 169.
  54. Lejour, A.M., P. Veenendaal, G. Verweij and N.I.M. van Leeuwen (2006), "WorldScan: a model for international economic policy analysis", CPB Document 111.
  55. Lejour, A.M., H. Rojas-Romagosa and G. Verweij (2008), "Opening Services Markets within Europe: Modelling Foreign Establishments in a CGE Framework", Economic Modelling.
  56. Lloyd, P.J. and X.G. Zhang (2006), "The Armington Model", Australian Government Productivity Commission Staff Working Paper.
  57. Markusen, J.R. (2002), Multinational Firms and the Theory of International Trade, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  58. Markusen, J.R. and K.E. Maskus (2002), "Discriminating among alternative theories of the multinational enterprise", Review of International Economics, 14, pp. 694-707.
  59. McKibbin, W.J. and P.J. Wilcoxen (1999), "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G- Cubed Memorandum 5b of the Australian Productivity Commission", Canberra model, Economic modelling 16, pp. 123-148.
  60. OECD, "Public Procurement for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth: Enabling reform through evidence and peer reviews", Paris (www.oecd.org/gov/ethics/ PublicProcurementRev9.pdf).
  61. Petri, P.A. (1997), "Foreign Direct investment in a computable general equilibrium framework", Paper prepared for the Conference, Making APEC work: Economic Challenges and Policy Alternatives, March 13-14, Keio University, Tokyo.
  62. Rutherford, T. (1999), "Applied General Equilibrium modeling with MPSGE as a GAMS Subsystem: An Overview of the Modeling Framework and Syntax", Computational Economics, 14, pp. 1-46.
  63. Tinbergen, J. (1962), Shaping the World Economy, Twentieth Century Fund, New York, NY.
  64. Trionfetti, F. (2000), "Discriminatory Public Procurement and International Trade", World Economy, 23(1):57-76.
  65. UNEP (2005), Handbook on Integrated Assessment of Trade-related Measures, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
  66. United States-European Union High-Level Working Group on Jobs and Growth (HLWG) (2013), "Final Report", 11 February (http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2013/ february/tradoc_150519.pdf).
  67. Van der Mensbrugghe, D. (2001), "Linkage Technical Reference document", World Bank, Washington, D.C.
  68. Vogel, L. (2009), "Macroeconomic effects of cost savings in public procurement", Economic papers 389, Directorate General of Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission, Brussels.
  69. Woolridge, J.M. (2012), Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach, Andover, UK: S.W. Cengage Learning.
  70. See Van de Mensbrugghe (2001), McKibbin and Wilcoxen (1999), Lejour et al. (2006), for example. 79 An exception is the WorldScan model. Lejour and Nahuis (2005) estimate sectoral and international spill-over effects, which are incorporated in the model, and Gelauff and Lejour (2006) model an R&D sector in WorldScan for analysing the 2010 Lisbon goals. Moreover, there are many dynamic CGE models of one country and one sector with endogenous R&D.
  71. Examples of these so-called global CGE models are the GTAP model (Hertel, 1997), the Linkage model (Van der Mensbrugghe, 2001), the Mirage model (Bchir et al., 2002), Michigan model (Brown and Stern, 2001), G-Cubed model (McKibbin and Wilcoxen, 1999), WorldScan model (Lejour et al., 2006), and the model of Rutherford (1999).
  72. Recently, many empirical papers have been published on FDI flows and the productivity of FDI. See Blonigen (2005) for a review of the empirical literature on the determinants of FDI, and Rojas-Romagosa (2006) on the productivity effects and the references included there.
  73. Petri's framework was later incorporated in other CGE models: the Michigan model (Brown and Stern, 2001), the model of Lee and Van der Mensbrugghe (2001), and the MIRAGE model (Bchir et al., 2002). However, most of these models apply some minor changes to the original framework of Petri. 2.28 (2001- 2007)
  74. 1.17 (2007- 27) 3.30 (2001- 2007) 1.74 (2007- 2016) 1.90 (2007- 27) Included in "Other OECD" Included in "Other OECD" Different projections 1 for "Other OECD" (2.54; 1.84; 2.02);
  75. "Eastern Europe" (6.55;
  76. 56), and "Rest of the World" (6.12;
  77. EU-Japan agreement "The model is projected to 2018 using IMF growth projections of the world economy"
  78. EU-Canada agreement 2 2.55 (2007- 14) Included in "Rest of the World" 2.68 (2007-14) Included in "Rest of the World" "Rest of the World" 4.45 (2007-14)
  79. 1 Projections inside each set of parentheses report values for, respectively, 2001-2007; 2007-2016; 2007-2027.
  80. 2 In the report are also explicitly noted the following assumptions: real oil prices +82% and real grain prices +68% during the period 2004-2014.
  81. Sources: Authors' elaboration on European Commission (2013), Copenhagen Economics (2009) and European Commission and Government of Canada (2008).