Frequency of data collection and estimation of trajectories of physical functioning and their associations with survival in older men: analyses of longitudinal data from the Manitoba Follow-Up Study (original) (raw)
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European Journal of Ageing, 2019
Longitudinal studies examining changes in physical functioning with advancing age among very old people are plagued by high death rates, which can lead to biased estimates. This study was conducted to analyse changes in physical functioning among the oldest old with three distinct methods which differ in how they handle dropout due to death. The sample consisted of 3992 persons aged 90 or over in the Vitality 90+ Study who were followed up on average for 2.5 years (range 0–13 years). A generalized estimating equation (GEE) with independent ‘working’ correlation, a linear mixed-effects (LME) model and a joint model consisting of longitudinal and survival submodels were used to estimate the effect of age on physical functioning over 13 years of follow-up. We observed significant age-related decline in physical functioning, which furthermore accelerated significantly with age. The average rate of decline differed markedly between the models: the GEE-based estimate for linear decline am...
Common trajectories of physical functioning in the Doetinchem Cohort Study
Age and Ageing, 2016
Purpose: to describe common trajectories of physical functioning and their determinants among an adult cohort, followed over a period of 15 years. Methods: the study sample consisted of 4,123 participants (initial ages 26-70 years) from the Doetinchem Cohort Study, who participated in three or four measurement cycles. Physical functioning was measured with the Dutch version of the SF-36. Using a group-based modelling strategy, trajectories of physical functioning were determined. Weighted multinomial logistic regression analyses were performed to identify socio-demographic, lifestyle and health characteristics that differentiate between the trajectories at baseline. Results: five common physical functioning trajectories were distinguished, labelled as 'stable not limited' (27% of the population), 'stable slightly limited' (54%), 'slightly limited substantial deterioration' (7%), 'moderately limited gradual improvement' (9%) and 'stable severely limited' (3%). The characteristics that differentiate between the trajectories with limitations and the trajectory 'stable not limited' were being female, older, physically inactive, overweight or obese, having one or more chronic conditions, poor mental health and poor self-perceived health at baseline. Being younger, physically active, less obese, living with a partner and a good perceived health were characteristics of the trajectory 'moderately limited gradual improvement' compared with 'stable severely limited'. Conclusion: five common trajectories of physical functioning were distinguished in an adult cohort, with most individuals following a stable but slightly limited course of physical functioning. Some early risk indicators were found that in the future might be used to early identify those with limitations in physical functioning.
The Journals of Gerontology: Series A, 2020
Background It remains unclear whether increasing longevity is accompanied by a compression or expansion of poor health and disability. We examined trends of physical functioning and morbidity in a population aged 90 and older, and disease- and disability-free life expectancy (LE) at age 90 between 2001 and 2018 in Finland’s third most populated city. Methods We used survey data from the Vitality 90+ Study, which comprises a series of six repeated mailed surveys (7,590 observations). Information on mortality came from Statistics Finland. We examined trends of functioning (activities of daily living [ADL] and mobility) and cardiovascular and dementia morbidity using age-adjusted generalized estimating equation models stratified by sex. In addition, age-, sex-, and period-specific health expectancies were calculated using Sullivan’s method. Results Over time, functioning improved, especially, in women, and morbidity increased in men. From 2001 to 2018, LE at age 90 increased by 5.3 mon...
Journal of Cachexia, Sarcopenia and Muscle, 2020
Background Physical activity (PA) is a recognized contributor to healthy aging. However, the majority of studies exploring its associations with adverse outcomes in cohorts of older adults use single-time PA estimates, which do not consider its dynamic nature. The aim of the present study is to explore the presence of different PA trajectories in the Toledo Study of Healthy Aging and their association with adverse outcomes. Our hypothesis is that prospectively maintaining or increasing PA is associated with a reduced risk of adverse outcomes. Methods We used data from 1679 participants enrolled in the Toledo Study of Healthy Aging. Trajectories based on the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly were identified using group-based trajectory modelling. Cox and logistic regression were used to investigate associations between PA trajectories and mortality and hospitalization, and incident and worsening disability, respectively. Mortality was ascertained by linkage to the Spanish National Death Index; disability was evaluated through the Katz Index; and hospitalization was defined as the first admission to Toledo Hospital. Models were adjusted by age, sex, smoking, Charlson Index, education, cognitive impairment, polypharmacy, and Katz Index at Wave 2. Results We found four PA-decreasing and one PA-increasing trajectories: high PA-consistent (n = 566), moderate PA-mildly decreasing (n = 392), low PA-increasing (n = 237), moderate PA-consistent (n = 191), and low PA-decreasing (n = 293). Belonging to the high PA-consistent trajectory group was associated with reduced risks of mortality as compared with the low PAdecreasing group [hazard ratio (HR) 1.68; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.21-2.31] and hospitalization compared with the low PA-increasing and low PA-decreasing trajectory groups (HR 1.24; 95% CI = 1.004-1.54 and HR 1.25; 95% CI = 1.01-1.55, respectively) and with lower rates of incident [odds ratio (OR) 3.14; 95% CI = 1.59-6.19] and worsening disability (OR 2.16; 95% CI = 1.35-3.45) in relation to the low PA-decreasing trajectory group and at follow-up. Increasing PA during late life (low PA-increasing group) was associated with lower incident disability rates (OR 0.38; 95% CI = 0.19-0.82) compared with decreasing PA (low PA-decreasing group), despite similar baseline PA. Conclusions Our results suggest that sustaining higher PA levels during aging might lead to healthy aging, characterized by a reduction in adverse outcomes. Our study supports the need for enhancing PA participation among older populations, with the goal of reducing personal and economic burden in a worldwide aging population.
Magnitude and Patterns of Decline in Health and Function in 1 Year Affect Subsequent 5-Year Survival
The Journals of Gerontology Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences, 2005
Background. Indicators of physical function and health status can predict important outcomes in older persons, but little is known about the meaning of change in these measures. This study assessed the magnitude and patterns of change occurring in 1 year in six measures of health and function and estimated the effects on survival for 5 years. Methods. This prospective cohort study was based in two health care systems. Data were collected during home visits at baseline and every 3 months for 1 year. Subsequent deaths occurring within 5 years were ascertained using the National Death Index. Results. Of 439 older adults, 88 (20%) died within the subsequent 5 years. The optimal magnitude of decline to predict 5-year mortality was 0.1 meters/second for gait speed, 1 point for the Short Physical Performance Battery, and 0.05 points for Euroqol. Independent contributions were found for decline in gait speed (p ¼ .001 to .002), Short Physical Performance Battery (p ¼ .014 to .026), global health (p , .001), and activities of daily living (p ¼ .005 to .019). More than one half of the episodes of decline were transient. Persistent decline in 1 year consistently predicted death, and transient decline in gait speed and global health increased mortality risk compared with no change. Conclusions. A decline in gait speed of 0.1 m/s or 1 point in the Short Physical Performance Battery within 1 year increased the subsequent 5-year mortality rate. Transient declines in gait speed and self-reported health are as common as persistent declines and affect mortality risk.
Frontiers in Public Health
ObjectiveMaintaining and delaying a decline in physical function in older adults is critical for healthy aging. This study aimed to explore trajectories, critical points of the trajectory changes, and predictors among older people in the Chinese community.DesignThis study was one with a longitudinal design performed in China.Setting and participantsThe target population was community-dwelling older adults aged over 65 years. A total of 2,503 older adults from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) were included in this study.MethodsPhysical functioning was measured by instrumental activities of daily living (IADL). Population-based trajectory models were used to identify potential heterogeneity in longitudinal changes over 16 years and to investigate associations between baseline predictors and different trajectories for different cohort members using LASSO regression and logistic regression.ResultsFour trajectories of physical function were identified: slow decli...
Patterns of Functional Impairment over Time Amongst Older Men—the Manitoba Follow-up StudyY
Canadian Geriatrics Journal, 2021
Background To determine the incidence and prevalence patterns of activity of daily living (ADL) impairments in ageing men. Methods 3,983 men were enrolled in the Manitoba Follow-up Study (MFUS) cohort study in 1948. From 1996 onwards, functional status was measured. We classified basic (BADL) and instrumental (IADL) into mutually exclusive categories as a time dependant factor after the second survey wave as: First survey response; no limitation; incident (first episode of disability); persistent (limitation which was seen on all questionnaires after the incident episode); resilient (noted in previous surveys but not present); and recurrent (noted in present survey, and limitations noted as present and absent in previous surveys). Results There were 1,745 participants in 1996 at a mean age of 76 years. Incident BADL limitations increased substantially with age: from 1% at age 75 to 15% at age 95. Similarly, persistent limitations increased with age: from 0.4% at age 75 to 18% at ag...
The Journals of Gerontology Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences, 1998
Background. The standard approach for survival analysis of the elderly population is to define the survival time as the elapsed time from entry into the study until death, and to adjust by age using stratification and regression procedures. However, the interest is in the study of the aging process and the risk factors related to it, not in the use of timeon-study as the'time scale. Here, we present methods to use age as the time scale and compare inferences and interpretations with those obtained using the standard approach.