Implications of TTIP and TPP on Bangladesh and Nepal (original) (raw)
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TPP, TTIP and RCEP: Implications for South Asian Economies
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) could be the biggest trade deals in history. As the European Union (EU), the United States (US) and RCEP countries are the biggest trading partner of all South Asian countries, such preferential tariff arrangements could lead to a significant erosion of preferences enjoyed currently by the South Asian countries. Against this backdrop, the main objective of the present study is to investigate the potential economic impacts of tariff eliminations under TPP, TTIP and RCEP on South Asian countries using a standard computable general equilibrium model. The analysis evinces that under complete integration, in terms of tariff elimination, under these three mega deals, the excluded South Asian countries could face a tremendous negative impact on their economies. The analysis also suggests that South Asia may consider joining the TPP to minimize the negative economic impact due to arise from these mega deals.
Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 2016
Our purpose is to undertake a comparative analysis of the likely impact of tariff reduction under the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on various macro and trade variables of the Indian economy under different scenarios. The TPP was concluded in October 2015, but it is yet to be ratified by the partner countries, and while Asian giants like India, China and Korea have not joined the TPP, there are some talks about their joining the partnership in future. Ours is a unique study that evaluates India’s perspective on joining the TPP, in terms of tariff reduction, and not in terms of the removal of non-tariff barriers. We employ the widely used standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model for this exercise. This is a unique framework with a global economy-wide approach, in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) setting. Five different scenarios of complete integration in terms of tariff reduction between different regions are simulated using the GTAP model. Under each scenario, the tariff among members of a group of regions is eliminated, but is unchanged for other regions. Higher welfare arising from allocative efficiency comes with the cost of a relatively lower consumption of domestic products and investment, resulting in a loss in terms of GDP. Therefore, we conclude that there are mixed prospects and no strong reason for India to pursue being part of the TPP in future, from a perspective of tariff reductions. JEL Classification:F15, F17
Economic impact of trade reforms between India and Latin American countries –A GTAP Analysis
2009
The Latin American and Caribbean countries are becoming increasingly important to India in recent years. Several Latin American and Caribbean countries and officials of the Government of India are finding ways of augmenting trade and commerce between India and the LAC countries and have highlighted the fact that the trade relations between India and the region had increased positively over the past years and were encouraging. Recently some initiatives have been taken to foster the trade relationship. The paper assesses the economic impact of trade reforms between India and Latin American countries using GTAP framework. The GTAP model and database used to undertake the analysis is version 6. Several scenarios have been attempted. India has shown highest growth followed by Rest of Asia and Latin American countries. On the other hand simulated results of tariff reduction reveal a different picture. With import tariff reduction an improvement is noted in output and export growth for India and LAC. The paper also analyses welfare changes due to tariff reduction between India and LAC and finds that Economic impact of trade reforms between India and Latin American countries-A GTAP Analysis
Preferential trade arrangements : estimating the effects on South Asia countries
1993
Measuring the impact of potential trading blocks involving South Asian countries is the aim of this paper. The author broadens this line of research to analyze the impacts of other potential preferential trading arrangements. In particular, the author evaluates the effects of South Asia Regional Integration (among Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka), as well as preferential trade arrangements (PTA's) of individual South Asian countries with some non-regional partners like USA, NAFTA as a whole, European Economic Community, or EEC or an Asian Group. The tool for empirical analysis is an extended version of the simple and well-known Gravity Model of Bilateral Trade, such as the one used by J. Frankel et al. (1993). This paper estimates bilateral trade using the standard approach with explanatory variables like gross national product (GNP), GNP per capita, and distance, but the author also attempts to quantify the impact of restrictions to trade, basically represented...
2014
Many economists believe that Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) will rewrite the rules of the global economy and may have significant disadvantage on developing countries in terms of trade diversion and convergence of standards and national regulatory systems. It is now a widely accepted fact that the rising economic power of Asia, China in particular, gave impetus to negotiations of TTIP. Considering these incentives behind TTIP, there is an increasing possibility of China and other major Asian economies to develop their own Asian Free Trade Area which may lead to disintegration of the world trading system into rival trading blocs. This paper analyses the initial economic impact of possible policy responses by major Asian countries as signing a FTA against TTIP under different liberalisation scenarios. When the recent economic integration efforts in Asia is considered, it is seen that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is an enlarged framework for ASEAN+1 FTAs, foresees a more broader and deeper integration than other FTA efforts. That's why, in this study, the possible FTA in Asia is assumed to be between sixteeen RCEP members. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis with static GTAP model is used to examine the economy-wide effects of FTA's. Three basic scenarios are tested in the analysis. In the first scenario, the impact of TTIP on signing parties and other countries, Asian countries in particular, are tested. In the second and third scenarios, the impact of a policy response of 16 RCEP countries as establishing a FTA in paralel with the TTIP is analysed. The second scenario includes 100% tariff reduction in industrial products and the third scenario includes 50% tariff reduction in agricultural products in addition to 100% tariff reduction in industrial products. The analysis results show that TTIP will have positive impact only on economies of EU and USA while all other countries will worsen in terms of real GDP. On the other hand, in second and third scenarios, in which Asian countries sign a FTA simultaneously, the Asian countries signing FTA and USA are affected positively while EU and rest of the World are affected adversely.
A GTAP Analysis of the Proposed BRICS Free Trade Agreement
GTAP Resource, 2012
The negotiations for the BRICS FTA have made a significant progress with the four summit level meeting among proposed BRICS FTA. This study used the GTAP model on 57 tradable commodities and nine regions of the world to understand the likely impact of possible BRICS FTA. . In this study, 113 regions given in GTAP data base is mapped to nine regions namely Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, ASEAN, USA, EU and Rest of the World by using GTAP database. This study updates the tariff protection for the nine regions and analyses the possible impacts on various indicators. A scenario of a full FTA between BRICS members is simulated using the GTAP model. Under this scenario, import protection within the BRICS member were removed but maintained between the Non-BRICS countries. Overall, the impact of proposed BRICS FTA would be positive for India as macroeconomics indicators (except trade balance) show positive change. However, at the disaggregate level, result vary across 57 sectors.
Multilateral and regional trade agreements: Options for Bangladesh
We analyze several trade liberalization scenarios for Bangladesh. Multilateral agreements in the framework of the WTO are compared with regional agreements in the framework of SAFTA. The paper argues that the imminent completion of the Agreement on Textile and Clothing (ATC) leads to a welfare loss for Bangladesh.
INDIA-BANGLADESH BILATERAL TRADE IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION-A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH
Citeseer
submitted for the Fifteenth International Input-Output Conference to be held at ABSTRACT India and Bangladesh had adverse balance of trade, throughout the last two decades. The government of both these countries pursued policies of trade liberalization since the beginning of the 1990's. This has enabled the economies to gradually emerge from inward-looking, protected perspectives into open, globally integrated ones.
Working Papers, 2011
The Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT) is aimed at building regional trade policy and facilitation research capacity in developing countries. The ARTNeT Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about trade issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. ARTNeT working papers are available online at www.artnetontrade.org. All material in the working papers may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgment is requested, together with a copy of the publication containing the quotation or reprint. The use of the working papers for any commercial purpose, including resale, is prohibited.