The Strategic Alignment between Russia and China: Myths and Reality (original) (raw)

China-Russia Strategic Alignment in International Politics

Amsterdam University Press, 2022

Post-Cold War China-Russia strategic cooperation has displayed significant development and become an increasingly important factor in contemporary international politics. However, there has been no theory-grounded framework and corresponding measurements that would allow an accurate and systematic assessment of the level of China-Russia alignment and its progress over time. How closely aligned are China and Russia? How to define and measure strategic alignments between states? This book bridges area studies and International Relations literature to develop a set of objective criteria to measure and explain the development of strategic alignment in post-Cold War China-Russia relations. It establishes that on a range of criteria, China-Russia alignment is moving towards a full-fledged alliance. It is solid and comprehensive and continues to show a consistent incremental upward trend. There are strong structural incentives for furthering the China-Russia alignment, and there is little that might hinder the effective functioning of a China-Russia alliance. The alignment framework developed in the book can be applied to other cases of interstate strategic cooperation to facilitate comparisons between different strategic alignments.

How Closely Aligned Are China and Russia? Measuring Strategic Cooperation in IR

International Politics, 2020

Russia's high-profile "turn to the East," the deterioration of Russia-US relations after the Ukraine crisis, and China's "new assertiveness" in the South and East China Seas have led to the perception that China and Russia are now "aligned" in opposition to US-led unipolarity. However, alignment remains an inchoate term that has not been systematically defined in the international relations (IR) literature. Thus, it is difficult to assess the degree to which China and Russia are aligned, as well as the extent to which their strategic cooperation has increased over time. This paper develops and applies an ordinal set of objective criteria for military alignment and applies these criteria to measure the degree of strategic cooperation in post-Cold War China-Russia relations. It also explores China-Russia cooperation across economic and diplomatic dimensions to assess the overall progress in the bilateral relationship over time. Drawing on multiple Chinese and Russian sources, it demonstrates that China and Russia have now developed strong military alignment, if not a full-fledged alliance, and that cooperation on each of the other two dimensions, while not yet as strong, has steadily increased since the end of the Cold War.

Conclusion: Explaining the China-Russia Partnership

The United States and Contemporary China-Russia Relations: Theoretical Insights and Implications, 2022

Theory is an essential component of explanation. The preceding chapters applied both existing and novel theories of international relations to explain the puzzle of China-Russia cooperation. Collectively, they reach consensus on some aspects of the bilateral relationship, but diverge over others. This concluding chapter characterizes the various theoretical mechanisms advanced by the contributors and attempts to reconcile points of contention. This culminates in a complete synthetic explanation of the increase in post-Cold War China-Russia cooperation that draws on these wellspecified theories to identify how disparate variables interact with each other, and what their respective causal weights are. The chapter concludes with the predictions these theories yield about the durability of China-Russia alignment, and the implications of the volume for US foreign policy. Implications for IR Theory Although the primary purpose of this project is to marshal IR theory to explain the sources of China-Russia cooperation and derive its implications, in doing so the chapters in this volume make several important theoretical advances in their own right. Alexander Korolev offers an important contribution with his generalizable typology of military alignment, which had previously not been defined in the IR literature. Rather, scholars have been limited to the binary classification of states as allied or unallied, which fails to capture any variation in cooperation short of formal alliance. This has led to a slew of ad hoc, unsystematic measures of cooperation in particular cases, which of course is not conducive to objective comparison of bilateral military relationships across dyads or over time. Korolev offers a discrete but finely graduated range of ordinal indicators that allows for such comparison, which can be refined and adopted to analyze degrees of alignment beyond China-Russia relations. Greg Moore also makes a conceptual contribution with his novel characterization of US-China-Russia relations as "national narcissism," which he defines as the atomistic pursuit of narrow self-interest in relations with other states. This contrasts with balancing, which is mutually beneficial cooperation against a common adversary even in the absence of other shared interests. The concept of national narcissism usefully distinguishes coordinated balancing behavior from simultaneous but uncoordinated competition with a common rival. Whereas the former implies cooperation to enhance the capabilities of one's balancing partner, national narcissism entails sustained competition between the two states even as they also compete with their shared adversary. John Owen and Andrew Kydd extend and synthesize existing IR theories to produce novel variants of balancing theory. Kydd points out that the literatures on nuclear deterrence and balance of power have heretofore been divorced from each other. He then combines these theories to identify an important threshold effect wherein one state's acquisition of a nuclear first-strike capability increases its bargaining leverage over the other two, and can thus impel a balancing coalition that would not otherwise be predicted by the distribution of non-nuclear capabilities. Conversely, secure secondstrike capabilities reduce incentives for alliances. This is a critical addition to the literature on great power balancing, which has not adequately theorized alignment patterns between nuclear powers. Owen, on the other hand, augments balancing logic with the concept of regime security, which has an ideological basis. Rather than simply balancing power, states balance threats to the survival of their domestic regime, which has both material and ideological components. A threat to a state's regime must have both an ideology that is antagonistic to the state's regime type, and the material capabilities to disseminate that ideology and/or attract converts to it. This is an important specification of a key variable in "balance of threat" theory, which is otherwise indeterminate

International Relations Theory and the Puzzle of China-Russia Alignment

The United States and Contemporary China-Russia Relations, 2022

The United States and Contemporary China-Russia Relations "This ambitious and well-organized volume argues convincingly that IR theory is crucial for understanding Sino-Russian relations, while also drawing on this critically important, understudied case to further develop IR theory. No other collected volumes address the topic in a theoretically rigorous way and very few independent studies even attempt to do so. The chapters in this volume are critical reading for scholars of IR and Russian and Chinese foreign policy, but are also accessible to area experts or policymakers that may not be familiar with specific IR theories. Given the crucial importance of the subject matter, and the quality of the scholarship, the book will inform scholars and policy practitioners for years to come.

A Match made in Heaven? Strategic Convergence between China and Russia

China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, 2007

This article examines the strategic convergence between Russia and China. Strategic convergence is understood as material compatibility and overlap of key interests with regard to long-term developments in world politics, providing the basis for extensive tactical co-operation between two or more states. The article focuses on the compatibility of Russia and China in terms of complementary economies, location and political outlook. The match between Russian natural resources and Chinese markets is examined in particular. The article concludes that a closer relationship between the two countries in many ways would be of mutual advantage, but that it is far from certain that an alliance will develop.

Russia and China. Anatomy of a Partnership

2019

While the "decline of the West" is now almost taken for granted, China's impressive economic performance and the political influence of an assertive Russia in the international arena are combining to make Eurasia a key hub of political and economic power. That, certainly, is the story which Beijing and Moscow have been telling for years. Are the times ripe for a "Eurasian world order"? What exactly does the supposed Sino-Russian challenge to the liberal world entail? Are the two countries' worsening clashes with the West drawing them closer together? This ISPI Report tackles every aspect of the apparently solidifying alliance between Moscow and Beijing, but also points out its growing asymmetries. It also recommends some policies that could help the EU to deal with this "Eurasian shift", a long-term and multi-faceted power readjustment that may lead to the end of the world as we have known it.

Russia and China: The Potential of Their Partnership

CSS Analyses in Security Policy, no. 250, 2019

Russia and China are celebrating their “strategic partnership”, and have been vastly expanding their cooperation since 2014. Their close alliance is based on economic and geopolitical considerations. While it is mutually beneficial, it also has its limitations. However, in the mid-term, both China and Russia appear to be willing to overlook potential fields of tension, for instance in Central Asia.

UNAVOIDABLE CLASHES: EXPLORING THE IMPLICATIONS OF A CHINA-RUSSIA ALLIANCE ON GLOBAL GEOPOLITICS

AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy & International Relations, 2023

The current relations between China and Russia are the result of the rapprochement policies of both countries. Shared fears about US hegemony, mutual economic benefits, and strong links between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin escalated Sino-Russia relations into a new stage. Russia needs regional security in Southeast Asia, and even though the strategic interests of China and Russia do not match over the region, they are both eager to contain the US. Recent Russia – Ukraine border issues are well-matched with China – Taiwan issues that also make the states feel mutuality between them. The results of the two issues may be the same. Moscow is making sure as time goes by that rapprochement with the West is impossible, Russia is going to suffer from economic sanctions, and the West has already begun decoupling. Despite all the partnerships and mutuality, China and Russia are still not allies. The inactive confrontations between the two outnumber all of the abovementioned positives.