Evaluation of geophysical mass flow models using the 2006 block-and-ash flows of Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia: Towards a short-term hazard assessment tool (original) (raw)
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Natural Hazards
The mobility of gravity-driven granular flows such as debris flows or pyroclastic density currents are extremely sensitive to topographic changes, such as break in slopes, obstacles, or ravine deviations. In hazard assessment, computer codes can reproduce past events and evaluate hazard zonation based on inundation limits of simulated flows over a natural terrain. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is a common input for the simulation algorithm and its accuracy to reproduce past flows is crucial. In this work, we use TITAN2D code to reproduce past block-and-ash flows at Colima volcano (Mexico) over DEMs with different cell size (5, 10, 30, 50, and 90 m) in order to illustrate the influences of the resolution on the numeric simulations. Our results show that topographic resolution significantly affects the flow path and runout. Also, we found that simulations of past flows with the same input parameters (such as the basal friction angle) over topography with different resolutions resulted in different flow paths, areas, and thickness of the simulated flows. In particular, the simulations performed with the 5- and 10-m DEMs produced similar results. Also, we obtained consistent simulation results for the 30- and 50-m DEMs. However, for the coarser 90-m DEM results are largely different and inaccurate. We recommend generating a benchmark table in order to acquire characteristic values for the basal friction angle of studied events. In case of rugged topographies, a DEM with high resolution should be used for more confident results.
The Island of Ischia is a densely populated, active vol- canic island located in the Tyrrhenian Sea, approximately 30km WSW from the city of Naples in Southern Italy. The Island is a debris-flow prone area due to its steep slopes covered by loose volcanic lithologies, and the whole territory is vulnerable to such phenomena due to an unregulated urbanization. On April 30th 2006, following several hours of rainfall, four soil slips were trig- gered on the slopes of Mt. Vezzi (about 400ma.s.l.) in the SE portion of the island. The soil slips changed quickly into debris flows that reached the inhabited at the foot of the hill. In spite of their limited size, the landslides caused four victims and destroyed several buildings, forcing the evacuation of 250 inhabitants. This paper presents the analysis of the triggering and propagation phase of the phenomena. In particular, to model the triggering conditions, a finite element analysis was used to reconstruct the fluctuations in pore water pressure during the storm in transient conditions. The limit equilibrium (Morgenstern and Price, 1965) slope-stability method was then applied using the temporal pore water pressure distributions derived from the seepage analysis. The dynamic modeling of the propagation phase was carried out by means of two dynamic codes DAN-W and FLO2D, with the aim of evaluating the residual hazard linked to other potential debris flows recognized in the same area. The model calibration was based on the thickness and areal extension of the deposits, on flow velocity and runout. The results have been subsequently compared to adopt a combined approach to the modeling. Once the DAN-W and FLO2D models satisfactorily reproduced the 30th April events, the simulations were extended to a larger area, whose susceptibility to future landslide events has been determined through a detailed geomorphological survey and a following GIS analysis. Several scenarios related to these potential events were used to estimate the inundation areas, flow velocities, and deposit thicknesses.
Gravity-induced pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) can be produced by the collapse of volcanic crater rims or due to the gravitational instability of materials deposited in proximal areas during explosive activity. These types of PDCs, which are also known as “glowing avalanches”, have been directly observed, and their deposits have been widely identified on the flanks of several volcanoes that are fed by mafic to intermediate magmas. In this research, the suitability of landslide numerical models for simulating gravity-induced PDCs to provide hazard assessments was tested. This work also presents the results of a back-analysis of three events that occurred in 1906, 1930 and 1944 at the Stromboli volcano by applying a depth-averaged 3D numerical code named DAN-3D. The model assumes a frictional internal rheology and a variable basal rheology (i.e., frictional, Voellmy and plastic). The numerical modelling was able to reproduce the gravity-induced PDCs’ extensionand deposit thicknesses to an order of magnitude of that reported in the literature. The best results when compared with field data were obtained using a Voellmy model with a frictional coefficient of f = 0.19 and a turbulence parameter ξ = 1000 ms−1. The results highlight the suitability of this numerical code, which is generally used for landslides, to reproduce the destructive potential of these events in volcanic environments and to obtain information on hazards connected with explosive-related, mass-wasting phenomena in Stromboli Island and at volcanic systems characterized by similar phenomena.
Numerical modeling of debris avalanche propagation from collapse of volcanic edifices
Debris avalanches produced from the collapse of volcanic edifices are destructive events that involve volumes up to two orders of magnitude larger (cubic kilometer) than most non-volcanic rock and debris avalanches. We replicate the motion and spreading of several volcanic collapses by means of a depth-averaged quasi-3D numerical code. The model assumes a fric-tional internal rheology and a variable basal rheology (i.e frictional, Voellmy and plastic). We back analyzed seven case-studies against observations reported in the literature to provide a set of calibrated cases. The ASTER and SRTM satellite-derived digital elevation models were used as topographic data. The numerical model captures the main features of the propagation process, including travel distance, lateral spreading and run up. At varying triggering factors and material characteristics the best fitting parameters span in a narrow interval and differ from those typical of non-volcanic rock and debris avalanches. The bulk basal friction angles (the sole parameter required in the frictional rheology) range within 3° and 7.5° whereas typical values for non-volcanic debris avalanches vary from 11° to 31°. The consistency of the back analyzed parameters is encouraging for a possible use of the model in the perspective of hazard mapping. The reconstruction of the pre-event topography is critical, and it is associated to large uncertainty. The quality of the terrain data, more than the resolution of the DEMs used, is relevant for the modeling. Resampling the original square grid to larger cell sizes determines a low increase in the back analyzed rheological parameters, as a result of the lower roughness of the terrain.
Objective rapid delineation of areas at risk from block-and-ash pyroclastic flows and surges
Bulletin of Volcanology, 2009
Assessments of pyroclastic flow (PF) hazards are commonly based on mapping of PF and surge deposits and estimations of inundation limits, and/or computer models of varying degrees of sophistication. In volcanic crises a PF hazard map may be sorely needed, but limited time, exposures, or safety aspects may preclude fieldwork, and insufficient time or baseline data may be available for reliable dynamic simulations. We have developed a statistically constrained simulation model for block-and-ash type PFs to estimate potential areas of inundation by adapting methodology from Iverson et al. (Geol Soc America Bull 110:972–984, 1998) for lahars. The predictive equations for block-and-ash PFs are calibrated with data from several volcanoes and given by A = (0.05 to 0.1)V 2/3, B = (35 to 40)V 2/3, where A is cross-sectional area of inundation, B is planimetric area and V is deposit volume. The proportionality coefficients were obtained from regression analyses and comparison of simulations to mapped deposits. The method embeds the predictive equations in a GIS program coupled with DEM topography, using the LAHARZ program of Schilling (1998). Although the method is objective and reproducible, any PF hazard zone so computed should be considered as an approximate guide only, due to uncertainties on the coefficients applicable to individual PFs, the authenticity of DEM details, and the volume of future collapses. The statistical uncertainty of the predictive equations, which imply a factor of two or more in predicting A or B for a specified V, is superposed on the uncertainty of forecasting V for the next PF to descend a particular valley. Multiple inundation zones, produced by simulations using a selected range of volumes, partly accommodate these uncertainties. The resulting maps show graphically that PF inundation potentials are highest nearest volcano sources and along valley thalwegs, and diminish with distance from source and lateral distance from thalweg. The model does not explicitly consider dynamic behavior, which can be important. Ash-cloud surge impact limits must be extended beyond PF hazard zones and we provide several approaches to do this. The method has been used to supply PF and surge hazard maps in two crises: Merapi 2006; and Montserrat 2006–2007.