The Unraveling of Support for Authoritarianism: The Dynamic Relationship of Media, Elites, and Public Opinion in Brazil, 1972–82 (original) (raw)
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This paper evaluates the theory that in authoritarian regimes leaders of civil society follow the mainstream press not so much for the specific information it provides, but rather as a barometer for the government’s tolerance for opposition activities or to gauge the government’s ability to quash such activities. By observing trends in coverage and the government’s treatment of journalists and their publications, activists can gauge when it might be safer to plan mass actions, which in turn can encourage mass participation ⎯ strengthening their cause. The analysis in this paper relies on a careful coding structure of A Folha de São Paulo, one of the main Brazilian newspapers, during the period from 1974 (the start of political détente) to 1982 (the first direct gubernatorial elections after the 1964 military coup). The content analysis contains information on coverage of subjects generally considered taboo under authoritarian regimes, such as criticism of the economic model, crimes and corruption by government officials, satire, exposés on the leader’s family or information critical of the leader himself, coverage of the opposition and its electoral efforts and criticism of government policies. The data also contain information on reports of arrests and injuries to the media and activists, anti-media acts by the government, such as censorship and closures of publications, and coverage of the release of prisoners and the return of exiles. Additionally the data include information on strikes, protests and other anti-regime activities reported both in the national and foreign press. Using negative binomial regression with a lagged dependent variable as well as autoregressive Poisson models, this paper demonstrates that key opposition actions followed trends in coverage. This relationship was mediated by the government’s actions against the media and attacks on journalists and editors. Elites planned more events during periods soon after reporters successfully reported on taboo subjects without suffering repercussions from the government.
Media and the Quality of Democracy: the different impacts of the media on regime support in Brazil
2014
A navegação consulta e descarregamento dos títulos inseridos nas Bibliotecas Digitais UC Digitalis, UC Pombalina e UC Impactum, pressupõem a aceitação plena e sem reservas dos Termos e Condições de Uso destas Bibliotecas Digitais, disponíveis em https://digitalis.uc.pt/pt-pt/termos. Conforme exposto nos referidos Termos e Condições de Uso, o descarregamento de títulos de acesso restrito requer uma licença válida de autorização devendo o utilizador aceder ao(s) documento(s) a partir de um endereço de IP da instituição detentora da supramencionada licença. Ao utilizador é apenas permitido o descarregamento para uso pessoal, pelo que o emprego do(s) título(s) descarregado(s) para outro fim, designadamente comercial, carece de autorização do respetivo autor ou editor da obra. Na medida em que todas as obras da UC Digitalis se encontram protegidas pelo Código do Direito de Autor e Direitos Conexos e demais legislação aplicável, toda a cópia, parcial ou total, deste documento, nos casos em que é legalmente admitida, deverá conter ou fazer-se acompanhar por este aviso. Media and the quality of democracy: the different impacts of the media on regime support in Brazil Autor(es): Mesquita, Nuno Coimbra Publicado por: Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra URL persistente: URI:http://hdl.handle.net/10316.2/35142
Social Representations of a dictatorial past and current support of authoritarianism
This study analyzed the structure of social representations of an authoritarian regime in Brazil (Military Regime, 1964-1985), the variables associated with reporting different emotions about that past, and support for authoritarian solutions in the present. A sample of 200 participants aged 18 to 85 years (M = 31.54; SD = 13.84) responded to a free word association task in which they indicated three words that came to mind about the Military Regime. A prototypical analysis showed a critical representation as the majority. However, positive representations and a mute zone effect (silence of controversial opinions) were found. Participants also answered several questions about the regime, the emotions they feel, and the support for its restoration. Regression analyses showed different variables predicting positive and negative emotions, and positive representations strongly predicting support for a current authoritarian solution.
Brazil's Polarization, Authoritarianism and Media Effects in The Edge of Democracy - Google Docs
In this essay, I am going to address the political documentary The Edge of Democracy which tells the story of the rise and fall of two consecutive Brazilian presidents--President Lula and Dilma Rousseff, as well as the socio-economic crisis that escalated Brazil’s domestic political unrest under the backdrop of the Arab Spring and Occupy Wall Street Movement. The topic in question here is how the mass social movements are mobilized during the impeachment and accusation against President Lula and Dilma’s corruption issues. Considering President Lula and Dilma were once very popular as their approval rating shows, but what dramatic changes or political maneuvers in Brazil’s democracy could have degraded the original people’s warrior to people’s prisoner, and polarized the nation’s public into irreconcilable groups that violently confront each other? What factors can account for these dramatic changes, and what roles does media play? Also, does the public opinion effects undermine Brazil’s democracy, is this replacement of government some kind of coup or symbol of a declined democracy as Petra Costa described?
This paper proposes that dissident leaders aiming to build mass opposition movements follow the mainstream press to help them gauge government tolerance for anti-government mass actions in repressive authoritarian regimes. Under conditions of censorship, media–state interactions serve as a barometer of the government’s disposition toward and capacity to impede public displays of dissent. Observing trends in coverage and the government’s reaction to this coverage helps activist leaders assess when it should be safest to plan anti-government mass actions, such as demonstrations, marches, or strikes. Using original data derived from coding content from the Brazilian newspaper "Folha de São Paulo" over the period of 1974–1982, I test whether opposition mass actions followed trends in taboo content and government treatment of the press during the period of political liberalization of Brazil’s military regime.
The 1964 coup and dictatorship in opinion polls
This article analyzes opinion polls conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Public Opinion and Statistics (IBOPE) in the context of 1964, with the objective of assessing the support to the coup and to dictatorship. The data, mostly new, indicate a contrast between the support to João Goulart, registered before the coup, and after the success of the coup, which points out to the good acceptance of authoritarian measures, including political purges. The empirical data obtained from the polls are used to consider the sources of legitimation of dictatorship that especially mobilized anticommunist representations. The analysis of the records suggests that the support to the authoritarian regime was marked by instability and oscillated throughout the initial years.
Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 2015
This informative, well researched, and thoughtful book sheds important light on the military regime that governed Brazil from 1964 to 1985. Paying central attention to short films made and promoted by two public relations organs-the AERP (Assessoria Especial de Relações Públicas) from 1968 to 1974, and the Assessoria de Relações Públicas (ARP) from 1976 to 1979-it skillfully depicts the military's strenuous efforts to create and maintain societal support for the regime. Given that the military in Brazil relied less on
Authoritarianism and Right-Wing Voting in Brazil
Latin American Research Review
Mounting evidence shows that authoritarian orientations exert a powerful influence on public opinion attitudes and candidate support. The 2018 Brazilian elections brought to power Jair Bolsonaro, a candidate with an open disregard for democracy and democratic institutions. This study examines Brazilian voters’ differences in authoritarianism and electoral support for a right-wing authoritarian candidate. It employs the AmericasBarometer national survey data to demonstrate that authoritarianism is politically important in Brazil because of its association with attitudes toward the use of force as well as with conservative social and political attitudes. The effect of authoritarianism on the probability of voting for Bolsonaro is as large as that of other relevant political behavior variables such as ideology, negative partisanship, or religiosity, whereas nonauthoritarian voters spread their votes across other candidates. Although these other variables are also relevant to Bolsonaro’...