Positive Model of Departure Time Choice Under Road Pricing and Uncertainty (original) (raw)

A novel positive model was developed for departure time choice under road pricing and uncertainty at individual levels, and the consequent system-level dynamic properties were also analyzed. The proposed modeling framework avoided assumptions of substantial rationality and focused on how individuals actually make decisions. Bayesian learning, knowledge updating, search, and decision making under uncertainty were modeled in the framework. Then time-dependent departure patterns along with other system performance were investigated in a series of agent-based simulation experiments. The way in which individuals actually chose departure time under various supply-and demand-side uncertainty scenarios was explored for the effect of the scenarios on system performance and its dynamic properties.