Energy security and corruption in Central Asia as the main challenges for the European Union energy diversification policy (original) (raw)

2023, Research Square (Research Square)

Background The main goal of the paper is to de ne, analyze and assess the basic security, development and institutional challenges faced by the Central Asian countries after 2022. Following the Covid-19 pandemic, and with the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, Europe faced the need to nd other sources of energy supply outside the Russian Federation. The Central Asian region is rich in energy resources and is therefore of special importance, but at the same time it is also a region of special geopolitical interest of often con icting parties-the region for which there are limited information and insu cient academic literature about development, various aspects of security, internal speci cities and future challenges. Methods The research included qualitative and quantitative analyses carried out for Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Data processing was performed on the basis of 16 selected indicators in the elds of economy, energy, governance and climate change, for the time period from 2011 to 2021. Data processing was performed using the correlation and regression analysis (ANOVA). Results The results showed that energy policy and corruption represent one of the biggest problems faced by the countries of Central Asia, which strongly affects the energy security and sustainable development, not only of the countries of Central Asia, but also of all countries that are supplied with energy products from this region, or plan to do so. Correlation analysis shows that the countries of Central Asia have certain similarities when it comes to economic and social policy. Energy security is positive only in the case of Turkmenistan. Regression analysis shows that Kazakhstan reported the best positive trend for most indicators. Data for Germany show consistent values over the observed period. Conclusions The main conclusions of the paper indicate that the countries of Central Asia have made little progress when it comes to overall sustainable development, with energy security, corruption and government e ciency being the biggest problems. The European Union and Europe as a whole must nd ways and mechanisms to overcome these and many other impediments if they are to get energy products from the aforementioned region. di culties both in certain countries and at the global level [2], thus forcing individual countries to reassess their own priorities and set some new ones for the future [3]. The Ukrainian crisis broke out in February 2022 and rapidly exceeded the boundaries of the regional con ict, thus becoming a multidimensional global problem accompanied by a worrying increase in energy poverty that had existed even before the Ukrainian crisis [4]. Different countries of the world reacted differently to the Ukrainian crisis, but the introduction of the tenth and the announcement of the eleventh package of sanctions by the European Union against the Russian Federation, caused complex economic, nancial, security, geopolitical and numerous other changes at the global level [5]. Bearing in mind the above, the majority of countries are looking at their own plans for sustainable development, since the nancial crisis certainly limited, and in some places even gradually prevented, the nancing of certain measures and activities aimed at the implementation of particular sustainable development goals [6]. When it comes to the 2018 EU Green Deal and the 2022 Recovery plan, these underwent a revision that included changes in every sense, with the diversity of views of the road to decarbonization that exist among theoreticians and practitioners [7]. However, the EU's determination for sustainable development, energy transition and decarbonization until 2050, remained unchanged [8]. During the Ukrainian crisis, the EU decided to stop the supply of natural gas from the Russian Federation and replace it with other sources of supply. Bearing in mind: that natural gas from the Russian Federation is an environmentally acceptable energy product, that the Russian Federation has been supplying the European Union with natural gas for several decades at favorable prices [9], that there are small available quantities of lique ed natural gas on the world market, while numerous infrastructure and investment problems stand in the way of the introduction of lique ed natural gas as an alternative [10], and taking also into account the lack of uranium in countries that are not involved in the con ict in Ukraine [11], it is not possible to assess with a real degree of certainty the further developments and the position of the European Union when it comes to the supply of this energy product. Moreover, with the aim of reducing the impact on their own economies, certain countries of the European Union express different attitudes and implement different activities when it comes to coal, renewable energy sources, nuclear energy, as well as the continued supply of natural gas from the Russian Federation [12]. Bearing in mind that the European Union imports about 55% of all necessary energy products, and that disagreements exist within the European Union on this issue, it is realistic to expect challenges in all spheres, including the ability of the European continent to reach the status of a carbon-free continent by 2050 [13]. The European Union and the EU candidate countries are in a situation where they have to nd and enable a stable supply of natural gas from other sources, which is certainly a challenging task because in 2020 the European Union imported about 85% of natural gas from other countries, whereby the Russian