Application of extreme learning machine for short term output power forecasting of three grid-connected PV systems (original) (raw)

The unpredictability of intermittent renewable energy (RE) sources (solar and wind) constitutes reliability challenges for utilities whose goal is to match electricity supply to consumer demands across centralized grid networks. Thus, balancing the variable and increasing power inputs from plants with intermittent energy sources becomes a fundamental issue for transmission system operators. As a result, forecasting techniques have obtained paramount importance. This work aims at exploiting the simplicity, fast computational and good generalization capability of Extreme Learning Machines (ELMs) in providing accurate 24 h-ahead solar photovoltaic (PV) power production predictions. The ELM architecture is firstly optimized, e.g., in terms of number of hidden neurons, and number of historical solar radiations and ambient temperatures (embedding dimension) required for training the ELM model, then it is used online to predict the solar PV power productions. The investigated ELM model is ...

The generated energy capacity at a solar power plant depends on the availability of solar radiation. In some regions, solar radiation is not always available throughout the day, or even week, depending on the weather and climate in the area. To be able to produce energy optimally throughout the year, the availability of solar radiation needs to be predicted based on the weather and climate behavior data. Many methods have been so far used to predict the availability of solar radiation, either by mathematical approach, statistical probability, or even artificial intelligence-based methods. This paper describes a method of predicting the availability of solar radiation using the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) method. It is based on the artificial intelligence methods and known to have a good prediction accuracy. To measure the performance of the ELM method, a conventional forecasting method using the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) method has been used as a comparison. The implementa...

Solar based electricity generations have experienced a strong and impactful growth in the recent years. The regulation, scheduling, dispatching and unit commitment of intermittent solar power is dependent on the accuracy of the forecasting methods. In this paper, a robust Expanded Extreme Learning Machine (EELM) is proposed to accurately predict the solar power for different time horizon and weather condition. The proposed EELM technique has no randomness due to the absence of random input layer weights and takes very less time to predict the solar power efficiently. The performance of the proposed EELM is validated through historical data collected from National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) through various performance metrics. The efficacy of the proposed EELM method is evaluated against basic ELM and Functional Link Neural Network (FLNN) for 5 minute and 1 hour ahead time horizon.

Forecasting the electricity load provides its future trends, consumption patterns and its usage. There is no proper strategy to monitor the energy consumption and generation; and high variation among them. Many strategies are used to overcome this problem. The correct selection of parameter values of a classifier is still an issue. Therefore, an optimization algorithm is applied with deep learning and machine learning techniques to select the optimized values for the classifier’s hyperparameters. In this paper, a novel deep learning-based method is implemented for electricity load forecasting. A three-step model is also implemented, including feature selection using a hybrid feature selector (XGboost and decision tee), redundancy removal using feature extraction technique (Recursive Feature Elimination) and classification/forecasting using improved Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM). The hyperparameters of ELM are tuned with a meta-heuristic algorithm, i...

Solar power integration in electrical grids is complicated due to dependence on volatile weather conditions. To address this issue, continuous research and development is required to determine the best machine learning (ML) algorithm for PV solar power output forecasting. Existing studies have established the superiority of the artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest (RF) algorithms in this field. However, more recent studies have demonstrated promising PV solar power output forecasting performances by the decision tree (DT), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithms. Therefore, the present study aims to address a research gap in this field by determining the best performer among these 5 algorithms. A data set from the United States' National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) consisting of weather parameters and solar power output data for a monocrystalline silicon PV module in Cocoa, Florida was utilized. Comparisons of forecasting scores show that the ANN algorithm is superior as the ANN16 model produces the best mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R 2) with values of 0.4693, 0.8816 W, and 0.9988, respectively. It is concluded that ANN is the most reliable and applicable algorithm for PV solar power output forecasting.

A Smart Grid (SG) is a modernized grid to provide efficient, reliable and economic energy to the consumers. Energy is the most important resource in the world. An efficient energy distribution is required as smart devices are increasing dramatically. The forecasting of electricity consumption is supposed to be a major constituent to enhance the performance of SG. Various learning algorithms have been proposed to solve the forecasting problem. The sole purpose of this work is to predict the price and load efficiently. The first technique is Enhanced Logistic Regression (ELR) and the second technique is Enhanced Recurrent Extreme Learning Machine (ERELM). ELR is an enhanced form of Logistic Regression (LR), whereas, ERELM optimizes weights and biases using a Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO). Classification and Regression Tree (CART), Relief-F and Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) are used for feature selection and extraction. On the basis of selected features, classification is performed using ELR. Cross validation is done for ERELM using Monte Carlo and K-Fold methods. The simulations are performed on two different datasets. The first dataset, i.e., UMass Electric Dataset is multi-variate while the second dataset, i.e., UCI Dataset is uni-variate. The first proposed model performed better with UMass Electric Dataset than UCI Dataset and the accuracy of second model is better with UCI than UMass. The prediction accuracy is analyzed on the basis of four different performance metrics: Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The proposed techniques are then compared with four benchmark schemes. The comparison is done to verify the adaptivity of the proposed techniques. The simulation results show that the proposed techniques outperformed benchmark schemes. The proposed techniques efficiently increased the prediction accuracy of load and price. However, the computational time is increased in both scenarios. ELR achieved almost 5% better results than Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and almost 3% than LR. While, ERELM achieved almost 6% better results than ELM and almost 5% than RELM. However, the computational time is almost 20% increased with ELR and 50% with ERELM. Scalability is also addressed for the proposed techniques using half-yearly and yearly datasets. Simulation results show that ELR gives 5% better results while, ERELM gives 6% better results when used for yearly dataset.

Solar energy conversion efficiency has improved by the advancement technology of photovoltaic (PV) and the involvement of administrations worldwide. However, environmental conditions influence PV power output, resulting in randomness and intermittency. These characteristics may be harmful to the power scheme. As a conclusion, precise and timely power forecast information is essential for the power networks to engage solar energy. To lessen the negative impact of PV electricity usage, the offered short-term solar photovoltaic (PV) power estimate design is based on an online sequential extreme learning machine with a forgetting mechanism (FOS-ELM) under this study. This approach can replace existing knowledge with new information on a continuous basis. The variance of model uncertainty is computed in the first stage by using a learning algorithm to provide predictable PV power estimations. Stage two entails creating a one-of-a-kind PI based on cost function to enhance the ELM limitati...