Determinants of Fertility Stall in India: A State Level Analysis, 1992-93 to 2019-21 (original) (raw)

Throughout the world India’s demographic scenario is a highly concerning issue for researchers and policymakers. Here fertility declined steadily for several decades but at a slower pace. To identify the actual scenario of a slower fertility pace, this study investigates the fertility stall condition at the state level of India from 1992-93 to 2019-21.A fertility stall is a situation where fertility is stagnant or increased after starting transitions. Using data collected by 1992-93, 1998-99, 2005-06, 2015-16, and 2019-21 rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), the study indicates that eight states during NFHS II to III, two states during NFHS III to IV and five states during NFHS IV to V experienced fertility stall. In general, increasing poor households, U-5 deaths, declining proportion of women in paid employment, the marginalized socio-economic category, higher son preference from the reproductive preference category, and increasing adolescent childbearing, unmet need for family planning from the family planning category significantly influence the fertility stall in Indian states. In spatial pattern, socio-economic variables are a more concerning issue for fertility stalls in northeastern states, meanwhile, son preference is more associated with the stall in low fertility provinces of southern India. This indicates that reaching low fertility in India will increase the likelihood of son preferences in the future. No significant link was observed between the presence of stall and trend in modern contraception and the desire for higher family size, though these factors were highly crucial for fertility stall according to the previous researches.