Estimating a Phillips Curve for South Africa: A Bounded Random Walk Approach (original) (raw)
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A Sticky Information Phillips Curve for South Africa
South African Journal of Economics, 2014
Mankiw and Reis (2002) propose the Sticky Information Phillips Curve as an alternative to the standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve, to address empirical shortcomings in the latter. In this paper, a Sticky Information Phillips curve for South Africa is estimated, which requires data on expectations of current period variables conditional on sequences of earlier period information sets. In the literature the choice of proxies for the inflation expectations and output gap measures are usually not well motivated. In this paper, we test the sensitivity of model fit and parameter estimates to a variety of proxies. We find that parameter estimates for output gap proxies based either on a simple Hodrik-Prescott filter application or on a Kalman filter estimation of an aggregate production function are significant and reasonable, whereas methods employing direct calculation of marginal costs do not yield acceptable results. Estimates of information updating probability range between 0.69 and 0.81. This is somewhat higher than suggested by alternative methods using micro-evidence (0.65-0.70 (Reid, 2012)). Lastly, we find that neither parameter estimates nor model diagnostics are sensitive to the choice of expectation proxy, whether it be constructed from surveyed expectations or the ad hoc VAR based forecasting methods.
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IMF Working Papers, 2012
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This paper investigates the key factors that explain the documented decline in the exchange rate pass-through in South Africa over the past two decades, which coincides with the adoption of the inflation-targeting regime. The paper conjectures, in line with the literature, that this outcome is largely due to improved monetary policy credibility. To do this, it first documents the factors that explain monetary policy credibility. Using the standard deviation of individual inflation forecasts as a measure of monetary policy credibility, its shows that the latter is negatively affected by the level of inflation itself, monetary policy uncertainty, and a measure of the unobserved stochastic volatility of inflation. The second phase proceeds by analyzing the determinants of the pass-through using the monetary policy credibility index derived from the first phase. The paper confirms the remarkable achievement that, despite the many shocks that the economy has witnessed, the declining pass-through is indeed explained by the improving monetary policy credibility.
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The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2012
The paper investigates the presence of monetary policy credibility in eight countries by filtering the residuals from an "augmented" Phillips curve. Two of the eight countries (US and New Zealand) exhibit robust credibility effects across samples. Two countries (South Africa and the UK) exhibit credibility effects in the sample involving the 1990s, but these effects disappear in the sample beginning in 2000. The rest of the countries do not exhibit monetary policy credibility. Given that seven of the eight countries have adopted an explicit inflation-targeting framework, we conclude that there is very weak evidence that this framework enhances monetary policy credibility. These results are however sensitive to how inflation and the output gap are measured.
Literature shows that exchange rates are largely unpredictable, and that a simple random walk outperforms structural exchange rate models. In order to determine whether fundamentals explain exchange rate behaviour in South Africa, the two approaches to exchange rate forecasting -the technical and fundamental approach -will be compared. Various univariate time series models, including the random walk model, will be compared to various multivariate time series models (using the MAD/mean ratio), combining the two approaches. The determinants of the South African exchange rate are identified, and these determinants are used to specify multivariate time series models for the South African exchange rate. The multivariate models (VARMA) outperformed the univariate models (except for the Random walk model) in the short-run forecasts, one step ahead, while the multivariate models, performed better in the longer-run forecasts. To improve the accuracy of especially the multivariate models, it is recommended that multiple frequencies be used to capture the dynamic behaviour between variables in a Structural VAR framework.
Critique of Phillips Curve: A Case Study of Zimbabwe Economy
Economics, 2019
This study sought to determine the relationship between Inflation and Unemployment in Zimbabwe. The time series yearly data for Inflation and Unemployment from 1990 to 2017 were used for the study. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) was used to determine the relationship between inflation on Unemployment. Some Stationarity and Cointegration tests were carried out. Data became stationarity after first differencing using Augmented Dickey Fuller Test. There was also evidence of cointegration between the two variables using the Johansen Cointegration Test. The results of the study established a stable and permanent inverse relationship between Inflation and Unemployment in Zimbabwe, conforming to the Phillips Curve. The Zimbabwean government should, therefore, work towards growing its economy through adopting a policy mix that embraces macroeconomic indicators that have a direct impact on both inflation and unemployment.
Central Bank Credibility Under Inferential Expectations
The theory of inferential expectations,states that “economic agents hold beliefs that are subject to falsification by new information, in much the same,way that they are in conventional,statistical hypothesis,testing.” We outline the role expectations,play in current monetary,economic,theory by Corresponding author. Contact details: Crawford School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia; Tel: +61-2-61255540; Fax: +61-2-61255570; Email: timo.henckel@anu.edu.au. 1 incorporating,inferential expectations,into the Barro-Gordon model,(1983) of time inconsistency. In a simple version of the model, the time consistent inflation target range shrinks as the duration of cheating increases, where time is a function of agents’ test size, α. In the second version of the model both magnitude,and time affect the monetary,authority’s incentive to cheat. The model produces,two key insights: i) monetary,authorities may,cheat for some,time without,bein...
South African Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting
Since its adoption of inflation targeting in 2000, the South African Reserve Bank has been accused of placing too great an emphasis on meeting its inflation target, and too small an emphasis on the high rate of unemployment in the country. On the other hand, the SARB has regularly missed its inflation target. We attempt to characterise the SARB's inflation targeting policy by analysing the Bank's interest rate setting behaviour before and after the adoption of inflation targeting, making use of Taylor-like rules to determine whether the SARB has emphasised inflation, the output gap, the real exchange rate, and asset price deviations in its monetary policy. We find that the SARB has significantly changed its behaviour with the adoption of inflation targeting, and show that the SARB runs a very flexible inflation targeting regime, with strong emphasis on the output gap. Indeed, we find evidence that the emphasis on inflation is too low, and potentially conducive to instability in the inflation process.