Using models to inform water policy in a changing climate: comparing the Australian and Uruguayan experiences (original) (raw)
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Global Change Biology, 2007
The impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources is one of the most critical issues facing the world in the next few decades. In particular, there is a need to quantify the risks associated with maintaining the security of resource quantity and quality, and to assess the effectiveness of potential management strategies. In this paper, we assess the impacts of climate variability and change on one aspect of river health. A simple model of Anabaena algal bloom occurrence at a weir pool in the lower Murrumbidgee River, Australia, has been coupled to a catchment model that is used to simulate streamflow, irrigation demand and diversions, dam water storage and releases, and decision-making by both irrigators and managers. Long-term climate data are obtained from a statistical downscaling algorithm, which, when applied to global climate model predictions can provide climate data suitable for driving the coupled model under a variety of climatic scenarios. The coupled model is then used to assess the impact of climate variability and projected climate change on the frequency, duration and magnitude of Anabaena blooms. The impact of two management strategies for bloom control are also assessed and it is shown that even a single, quite simple, resource-neutral, adaptive management strategy has the potential to substantially reduce the occurrence and impact of algal blooms and to more than compensate for the deleterious impacts of climate change. This result supports the notion that planning for the future can lead to positive outcomes in the present.
We constructed a model chain into which regional climate-related variables (air temperature, precipitation) and a lake’s main tributary hydrological indicators (river flow, dissolved inorganic carbon) were employed for predicting the evolution of planktonic blue-green algae (cyanobacteria) and zooplankton (rotifer) biomass in that lake for the mid-21st century. Simulations were based on the future climate predicted under both the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios which, combined with three realistic policymaking and basin land-use evolution lead to six scenarios for future water quality. Model outputs revealed that mean annual river flow is expected to decline between 3 and 20%, depending on the scenario. Concentration of river dissolved inorganic carbon is predicted to follow the opposite trend and might soar up to twice the 2005–2014 average concentration. Lake planktonic primary producers will display quantitative changes in the future decades whereas zooplankters will not. A 2 to 10% increase in mean cyanobacteria biomass is accompanied by a stagnation (−3 to +2%) of rotifer biomass. Changes in cyanobacteria and rotifer phenology are expected: a surge of cyanobacteria biomass in winter and a shortening of the rotifer biomass spring peak. The expected quantitative changes on the biota were magnified in those scenarios where forested area conversions to cropland and water abstraction were the greatest.
Remote Sensing
Assessing how climate change will affect hydrological ecosystem services (HES) provision is necessary for long-term planning and requires local comprehensive climate information. In this study, we used SWAT to evaluate the impacts on four HES, natural hazard protection, erosion control regulation and water supply and flow regulation for the Laguna del Sauce catchment in Uruguay. We used downscaled CMIP-5 global climate models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 projections. We calibrated and validated our SWAT model for the periods 2005–2009 and 2010–2013 based on remote sensed ET data. Monthly NSE and R2 values for calibration and validation were 0.74, 0.64 and 0.79, 0.84, respectively. Our results suggest that climate change will likely negatively affect the water resources of the Laguna del Sauce catchment, especially in the RCP 8.5 scenario. In all RCP scenarios, the catchment is likely to experience a wetting trend, higher temperatures, seasonality ...
Revista de Gestão Costeira Integrada, 2014
In this paper we present a climate adjustment and scenario building experience in the coastal areas of Uruguay within the framework of GEF-Project "Implementing pilot sites adaptation measures in coastal Uruguay". The Project goals are to increase resilience, promote interactions between relevant institutions and stakeholders, and to incorporate climate threats in the political agenda. Assuming that many readers are more familiar with Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) than with climate adaptation a summary of concepts is presented based on both the international literature and local experience. Emphasis is put on the knowledge of coastal climate-driven threats, the implications of adaptive and risk-based management approaches to current climate, adaptation planning, and future scenarios. Then, a review of our recent publications on the subject is made in order to give a picture of the lessons learned during the Project experience. Here we focus on the Rio de la Plata's estuarine front "Adaptation Pilot Site" and the interaction between scientists and stakeholders from 2009-2013. Emphasis is put on recent climatic time-series (1997-2012) since during this period most of them reverted as compared to the Project's climate baselines . This short-term variability is fundamental to cope with current climate threats (adjustment) and introduces additional uncertainties to future scenarios. The continuous interaction with stakeholders and experts allows building alternative futures from the current perspective and climate models. The process itself -planning and implementing actions -creates capacity to move forward. Natural and social scientists continuously inform stakeholders, to promote adjustment, interactive adaptive management, and planning. Thinking of "futures" together with experts and stakeholders can be thought as a "what if" learning exercise and a way to develop alternative scenarios. Nagy et al. (2014) 554 implicações de adaptação e gestão baseada em risco se aproximam ao clima atual, o planejamento de adaptação, e cenários futuros. Então, nossas recentes publicações sobre o assunto são revisadas, a fim de dar uma imagem das lições aprendidas durante a experiência do Projeto. Aqui nos concentramos em na frente estuarina do Rio de la Plata "Local piloto de adaptação" e da interação entre os cientistas e os interessados entre 2009 e 2013. Ressaltamos sobre a evolução da recente série temporal climática (1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012), quando a maioria deles com uma tendència revertida em comparação com as linhas de base do clima do projeto . Esta variabilidade de curto prazo é fundamental para lidar com as ameaças climáticas atuais (de ajuste) e introduzem incertezas adicionais as típicas dos cenários futuros. A interação contínua com as partes interessadas e especialistas permite construir futuros alternativos a partir da perspectiva atual e os modelos climáticos. O processo em si -o planejamento e implementação de ações -cria capacidade para avançar. Os cientistas naturais e sociais informam continuamente as partes interessadas para apoiar o ajustamento atual, a gestão adaptativa interativa e o planejamento. Pensando em "futuros", juntamente com peritos e partes interessadas pode ser pensado como um exercício "what if" e uma maneira de desenvolver cenários alternativos de aprendizagem.
Integrated catchment models for policy development and decision making
Agrociencia Uruguay, 2024
Land-system change, freshwater use, biodiversity loss, and changes in biogeochemical flows affect the resilience of the Earth system as a whole. Effective communication between scientists and policy makers is critical in addressing these challenges. Simulation models can be used as integrators of knowledge and data, and play a key role in facilitating effective boundary work between science and policy. Key issues identified are the reliability of model outcomes and the acknowledgement of their uncertainty. However, the use of models provides an advantage when analysing scenarios. Integrated catchment models can provide feedback about joint interpretation of the data and conceptual understanding, resulting in the identification of data needs. The difficulties related to improving how science informs policy is one of communication and negotiation at the boundary, and models can assist in the co-production between researchers and decision makers.
How to incorporate climate change into modelling environmental water outcomes: a review
Journal of Water and Climate Change
Environmental water represents a key resource in managing freshwater ecosystems against pervasive threats. The impacts of climate change add further pressures to environmental water management, yet anticipating these impacts through modelling approaches remains challenging due to the complexities of the climate, hydrological and ecological systems. In this paper, we review the challenges posed by each of these three areas. Large uncertainties in predicting climatic changes and non-stationarities in hydrological and ecological responses make anticipating impacts difficult. In addition, a legacy of relying on modelling approaches informed by historic dependencies in environmental water science may confound the prediction of ecological responses when extrapolating under novel conditions. We also discuss applying ecohydrological methods to support decision-making and review applications of bottom-up climate impact assessments (specifically eco-engineering decision scaling) to freshwater...
Hydrological Processes, 2010
Hydrological models are recognized as valid scientific tools to study water quantity and quality and provide support for the integrated management and planning of water resources at different scales. In common with many catchments in the Mediterranean, the study catchment has many problems such as the increasing gap between water demand and supply, water quality deterioration, scarcity of available data, lack of measurements and specific information. The application of hydrological models to investigate hydrological processes in this type of catchments is of particular relevance for water planning strategies to address the possible impact of climate and land use changes on water resources.
Impacts of climate variability on riverine algal blooms
This paper presents results from a project to model algal bloom occurrence in weir pools in the lower Murrumbidgee River, Australia. The IQQM model (Integrated Quality-Quantity Model) is used to simulate streamflows, irrigation demand and diversions, dam water storage and releases, and decision-making by both irrigators and managers. A simple model of Anabaena algal bloom occurrence has been coupled to IQQM. Long-term climate data is obtained from a climate downscaling algorithm, which, when applied to GCM predictions can provide climate data suitable for driving IQQM under a variety of climatic scenarios. The coupled model is used to assess the impact of climate variability and possible climate change on the frequency, duration and magnitude of Anabaena blooms. The impact of two management strategies for bloom control are also assessed and it is shown that even quite simple, resource-neutral, adaptive management strategies have the potential to substantially reduce the occurrence and impact of algal blooms and to more than compensate for the deleterious impacts of climate change.