Scenarios for Australia in 2050: A Synthesis and Proposed Survey (original) (raw)
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Future trajectories for Australia will be influenced not only by biophysical factors but also by changes to social structures and the abilities of communities to respond and adapt to new environments. The confluence of biophysical and social factors is especially worrying in peri-urban and regional areas where exposure to climate change impacts and existing social stresses are high. However, while there may be clearly desirable zones for achieving social equity and environmental sustainability, it is harder to say where thresholds for social disarray might occur due to the complexity of social factors, system dynamics and individual perspectives.
Negotiating our future: living scenarios for Australia to 2050, vol 1
The Australian Academy of Science project on Australia 2050 included an extended workshop and collaborative research. This volume addresses the challenges of negotiating the future in two senses: steering a path through uncertainties and obstacles, and also discussing a shared course in the face of differences in values and perceptions. The concept of ‘living scenarios’ refers to shared, ongoing explorations of how the future might unfold, leading to evolving visions for the future that are simultaneously plausible (consistent with natural laws), acceptable (consistent with aspirations for human well-being) and workable (agreed to the extent necessary for action).
Living scenarios for Australia in 2050: negotiating the future
In thinking about a future that is both environmentally sustainable and socially equitable, two challenges are paramount. The first is to assess a multitude of possible pathways over coming decades, and especially their implications for environmental sustainability and social equity. The second is to find ways to negotiate a pathway, where negotiation implies both steering a path through uncertainties and obstacles, and also agreeing on a shared course in the face of differences in values and perceptions that are a hallmark of an open and pluralistic society.
Living scenarios for Australia as an adaptive system
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Volume 2: Background papers 1 Australia's health: integrator and criterion of environmental and social conditions McMichael AJ 2 Health, population and climate change Butler CD 3 Australian population futures Hugo G 4 Settlement and the social dimensions of change Manderson L and Alford K 5 Physical realities and the sustainability transition Foran B 6 Feeding Australia Stirzaker R 7 Towards a resilience assessment for Australia Grigg N, Walker BH 8 What is a model? Why people don't trust them and why they should Boschetti F, Fulton EA, Bradbury RH, Symons J 9 Quantitative modelling of the human-Earth System: a new kind of science? Finnigan JJ, Brede M, Grigg N 10 Science to inform and models to engage Perez P 11 Economic approaches to modelling Adams P 12 Applying scenarios to complex issues Jones R 13 Alternative normative scenarios: economic growth, conservative development and post materialism Cocks D 14 The evolutionary nature of narratives about expansion and sustenance Raupach MR
A public opinion survey of four future scenarios for Australia in 2050
Futures, 2018
Scenario planning and the use of alternative futures have been used successfully to assist organisations, communities and countries to move towards desired outcomes (Dator, 2009). In this study we used a unique combination of scenario planning and a national public opinion survey to explore preferred futures for Australia in 2050. The approach used four future scenarios for Australia in 2050 as the basis for an online national public opinion survey entitled Australia: Our Future, Your Voice. Scenario development was based on a review of a broad range of scenarios for Australia and globally. We then developed four synthesis scenarios based on two axes of individual versus community orientation, and national focus on GDP growth versus a focus on wellbeing more broadly defined. The scenarios were labelled: (1) Free Enterprise (FE); (2) Strong Individualism (SI); (3) Coordinated Action (CA); and (4) Community Well-being (CW). We created a website that described each of these scenarios and invited people to complete a survey after they had reviewed the scenarios. The survey engaged 2575 adults in two groups: (1) a targeted statistically representative national sample (n = 2083) and (2) a self-selected sample (n = 492). Results from both groups and across all demographic categories revealed that a majority of participants preferred the Community Well-being (CW) scenario. 73% (Representative) and 61% (Self Select) ranked this scenario as 1 st or 2 nd. We also asked which scenario Australia was headed toward. 32% of the Representative sample and 50% of the Self-Selected sample participants ranked the Free Enterprise (FE) scenario as the most likely future. CW was ranked least likely to be 'where Australia is heading?' The dissonance between the future Australians want and where they thought the country is headed has clear policy implications, which we discuss. This extension of scenario planning to include public opinion surveys is novel and this approach can be used to improve thinking, discussion, planning and policy about the future of Australia, as well as potentially other countries and regions.
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The National Outlook is a groundbreaking attempt to model and analyse Australia's physical economy and natural resource use many decades into the future. It provides the most comprehensive analysis of its kind yet undertaken, including several advances in scientific capacity, and identifies a number of areas for future public deliberation and scientific exploration. National Outlook focuses on the emerging water-energy-food nexus, and the prospects for Australia's energy, agriculture, and other material intensive industries in the context of multiple uncertainties and opportunities, with particular attention to potential synergies and trade-offs within and across economic sectors. National Outlook is a unique tool to help us navigate to prosperity through an uncertain future, by providing a scientific assessment of the complex connections and interactions between economy activity, resource use and the environment. CSIRO is sharpening its focus on innovation. With this report we build upon our analysis of key global megatrends, to give a sharper focus on implications and opportunities for Australia, as a precursor to helping create market roadmaps for-and with-each of the industries we serve. This report presents key findings, with further detail provided in a technical report and scientific papers published in peer-reviewed journals, including Nature. To help ensure that the National Outlook modelling and interpretation are rigorous and based on the best available science, CSIRO marshalled a distinguished external review panel from Australian and international institutions, representing a broad range of relevant disciplines, in addition to rigorous internal review. While science can provide new evidence and insights, how we respond is the decision of individuals, firms and communities. Our hope is that this National Outlook is just the beginning. Future directions for this integrated capacity might include deepening our analysis of economy-wide interactions, and better incorporating aspects of our urban systems, such as the interactions between nutrition, mobility and health. We entrust these findings to our national discussions and open them to private decision-making, and hope above all that this analysis will enrich the ongoing conversations between policy makers, market analysts, and the public, as we navigate our nation to a prosperous future.