Russia in 2020: Alternative Scenarios of the Near Future (original) (raw)

RUSSIAN FUTURES 2030: The shape of things to come

Chaillot paper, 2020

This Chaillot Paper seeks to provide readers with ambitious foresight analysis and insights on how to be prepared for unexpected twists and turns in Russia’s future trajectory. The opening chapter highlights a set of key megatrends that will shape how Russia evolves in the decade ahead. Subsequent chapters focus on key sectors and analyse critical uncertainties that will influence Russia’s future course of development. They cover state-society relations in the country; its economic development and the evolution of its military posture; as well as how Russia’s relations with the EU’s eastern neighbours and China may unfold by 2030. Each of these chapters presents three alternative future scenarios. While they zoom in on specific themes and sectors, the concluding section offers a panoramic view of the various possible futures – combining elements of all of the preceding chapters to produce three holistic snapshots of Russia in 2030.

Writing Russia’s Future: Paradigms, Drivers, and Scenarios

Abstract: The development of prediction and forecasting in the social sciences over the past century and more is closely linked with developments in Russia. The Soviet collapse undermined confidence in predictive capabilites, and scenario planning emerged as the dominant future-oriented methodology in area studies, including the study of Russia. Scenarists anticipate multiple futures rather than predicting one. The approach is too rarely critiqued. Building on an account of Russia-related forecasting in the twentieth century, analysis of two decades of scenarios reveals uniform accounts which downplay the insights of experts and of social science theory alike.

POLITICAL FORECAST FOR RUSSIA FROM 2020 TO 2030

2019

An analysis was made of the implementation of my forecast from 2005, according to which in 2015 the peoples of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus will be ready to wage a big war. It is revealed that this forecast was realized by date, but not by the scale of political upheavals: the Russian people have not yet exhausted their potential for active, including bloody, actions, which, combined with the growing desire of the peoples of the Russian Federation to implement radical changes, leads to the forecast that political life in Russia in the 2020s (including emotional and military aspects) will be extremely intense: the country's territory may expand or decrease; riots, coup attempts, outbreaks of limited military conflicts are possible; it is also possible the beginning of a normal war by intensity, the adoption of a new Constitution of Russia; at the same time neither civil war nor severe bloody war is expected.

The Image of the Future of Contemporary Russia

Journal of Futures studies, 2019

The paper analyzes the images of the future of Russia, which exist in the conscience of representatives of the modern Russian society. We have developed a comprehensive humanitarian analysis (CHA), which allows us to find a common denominator of social expectations in sources of different types. We introduce into scientific research such groups of sources as scientific forecasts, government and political programs, opinion polls and works of modern Russian literature. The results of our study include a description of the image of the future, which we have designated as "its own way" and two options of this way.

Russia-2021: Experiencing the Present and Looking into the Future

Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya, 2021

Sociological portrait" as the purpose of the study. One of the characteristic, one might say, "trademark" features of Russian scientific culture is a special interest in conducting research in the genre of "portrait" sociology, the specific task of which is an integral description of various social worlds and specific societies [Andreev, 2017]. Such works have become a response of the Russian sociological community to an urgent public inquiry-to sort out again who we are, what we are striving for, and how, based on this, to build a new strategy for the

Russian Perspective no. 3 - December 2020 - February 2021 (English)

Russian Perspective no. 3 - December 2020 - February 2021, 2021

Executive Summary • The period under review was dramatic for Russia on all fronts. The need to deal with the ongoing medical crisis and search for ways to combat the spread of the Covid-19 virus took place as political and social tensions have grown, reaching their peak in the waves of protest that accompanied the return of Alexei Navalny and his subsequent arrest. The multiple challenges in the interior have forced Vladimir Putin’s government to search for “creative way” to diminish the mounting social pressure so that it can strengthen its ability to govern. • The emerging relations between Russia and the United States under Biden: antagonism is likely to increase, despite the extension of the START Treaty. This tension is liable to affect Israel’s freedom of maneuver between Russia and the West. • Russia calls to return to the nuclear agreement with Iran (JCPoA) without any changes and to deal with the issues of missiles and Iranian regional influence outside the framework of the agreement. Moscow has signaled its concern about possible escalation between Israel and Iran in Syria. Russia and Iran will probably conclude new arms deals in the coming months. • The Covid-19 vaccines have emerged as a new tool of Russia to exert its influence in foreign policy. • The election results in Kazakhstan reflected the veteran elite’s continued control of power, and the suppression of the opposition. The election of Japarov as president of Kyrgyzstan was accompanied by changes in the constitution and the system of government. The rivalry between Russia and China for dominance in Central Asia could escalate still further if the Biden administration increases its political involvement in the region.