Influence of Continental Atmospheric Forcing on the Decadal Variability of the West African Monsoon (original) (raw)
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Climate Dynamics, 2016
in the Sahel climate system at seasonal to decadal scales. The project's strategy is to apply prescribed observationally based anomaly forcing, i.e., "idealized but realistic" forcing, in simulations by climate models. The goal is to assess these forcings' effects in producing/amplifying seasonal and decadal climate variability in the Sahel between the 1950s and the 1980s, which is selected to characterize the great drought period of the last century. This is the first multi-model experiment specifically designed to simultaneously evaluate such relative contributions. The WAMME II models have consistently demonstrated that SST forcing is a major contributor to the twentieth century Sahel drought. Under the influence of the maximum possible SST forcing, the ensemble mean of WAMME II models can produce up to 60 % of the precipitation difference during the period. The present paper also addresses the role of SSTs Abstract The second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II) is designed to improve understanding of the possible roles and feedbacks of sea surface temperature (SST), land use land cover change (LULCC), and aerosols forcings This paper is a contribution to the special issue on West African climate decadal variability and its modeling, consisting of papers from the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation (WAMME) and the African Multidisciplinary Monsoon Analyses (AMMA) projects, and coordinated by Yongkang Xue, Serge Janicot, and William Lau. Provided Funding information has to be tagged.
Quasi-decadal signals of Sahel rainfall and West African monsoon since the mid-twentieth century
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2013
Sahel rainfall shows pronounced decadal variability and a negative trend between wet conditions in the 1950s-1960s and dry ones in the 1970s-1980s. Using continuous wavelet transform, the quasi-decadal variability (QDV) of rainfall reveals zonal contrasts. The highest QDV is identified in the 1950s-1960s over western Sahel and in the 1970s-1980s over eastern Sahel. The quasi-decadal atmospheric anomalies have been reconstructed using Fourier transform for the 1950s-1960s and the 1970s-1980s, respectively, and assessed by the composite analysis of the QDV phases for the periods before and after 1968. Over western Sahel, the rainfall QDV in the 1950s-1960s is related to the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability, as highlighted by the wavelet coherence. A southward shift trend of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is identified through an enhancement of northeasterly fluxes and moisture convergence over the western part of West Africa. A decrease (increase) of southern (northern) subtropical sinking motions seems to be involved. In the 1970s-1980s, a strengthening of cross-equatorial Atlantic SST and pressure gradients is related to an increase of monsoon flow from lower troposphere up to the midtroposphere and to the northward shift of the ITCZ, mainly over eastern Sahel. The Pacific SST influence is also identified, which involves changes in the global zonal circulation.
OBSERVED DECADAL VARIABILITY IN WEST-AFRICAN SAHEL RAINFALL AND THEIR ASSOCIATED MONSOON ANOMALIES
West-African Sahel rainfall shows a large decadal signal, transitioning from wet conditions in the 1950s to dry conditions in the 1970s/80s. Only the quasidecadal time-scale is significantly detected in the Sahel rainfall index during the 1970s and 1980s. This time-scale of rainfall variability appears to be related to two periods of dry conditions and one of relatively wet conditions in the mid-70s. The dominant quasidecadal anomalies of West-African Monsoon have been reconstructed using Fourier transform for the 70s-80s, and subsequently assessed by the differences in wet and dry states. A strengthening of cross-equatorial Atlantic SST and pressure gradients can be related to an enhancement of monsoon flow and the northward shift of the ITCZ.
2022
We examine and contrast the simulation of Sahel rainfall in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). On average, both ensembles grossly underestimate the magnitude of low-frequency variability in Sahel rainfall. But while CMIP5 partially matches the timing and pattern of observed multi-decadal rainfall swings in its historical simulations, CMIP6 does not. To classify model deficiency, we use the previously-established link between changes in Sahelian precipitation and the North Atlantic Relative Index (NARI) for sea surface temperature (SST) to partition all influences on Sahelian precipitation into five components: (1) teleconnections to SST variations; the effects of (2) atmospheric and (3) SST variability internal to the climate system; (4) the SST response to external radiative forcing; and (5) the "fast" response to forcing, which is not mediated by SST. CMIP6 atmosphere-only simulations indicate that the fast response to forcing plays only a small role relative to the predominant effect of observed SST variability on low-frequency Sahel precipitation variability, and that the strength of the NARI teleconnection is consistent with observations. Applying the lessons of atmosphere-only models to coupled settings, we imply that the failure of coupled models in simulating 20th century Sahel rainfall derives from their failure to simulate the observed combination of forced and internal variability in SST. Yet differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 Sahel precipitation do not mainly derive from differences in NARI, but from either their fast response to forcing or the role of other SST patterns.
Multi-model Analysis of the West African Monsoon: Seasonal Evolution and the Monsoon Onset
Journal of Scientific Research and Reports
The economy of West Africa and particularly in the Sahel region depends primarily on agriculture. Most of its agricultural productivity is achieved during the monsoon season (July-September) when the greatest amount of rain is recorded. The goal of this paper is to study the seasonal evolution of West African rainfall with a special focus on the onset of monsoon using five (5) regional climate models (RCMs) involved in the CORDEX (Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment) program. These RCMs have a horizontal resolution of 0.44° × 0.44° (about 50 km) and are initialised and forced to their lateral boundaries by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The results show that the intra-seasonal variability of the West African monsoon (WAM) is well reproduced by RCMs despite the presence of some biases. The analysis of the dynamics of the West African monsoon shows that almost all models simulate a strong increase of the heat flux over the Sahara desert especially on its western part which promotes a substantial rise in the monsoon flow over the Sahel. This increase of low-level monsoon flow may induce an enhancement of the low-level specific humidity and the convective activity over the Sahel just after the onset. Moreover, the RCMs show a northward position and an intensification of the AEJ just
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2017
Vertical and horizontal distributions of diabatic heating in the West African monsoon (WAM) region as simulated by four model families are analyzed in order to assess the physical processes that affect the WAM circulation. For each model family, atmosphere-only runs of their CMIP5 configurations are compared with more recent configurations which are on the development path toward CMIP6. The various configurations of these models exhibit significant differences in their heating/moistening profiles, related to the different representation of physical processes such as boundary layer mixing, convection, large-scale condensation and radiative heating/cooling. There are also significant differences in the models' simulation of WAM rainfall patterns and circulations. The weaker the radiative cooling in the Saharan region, the larger the ascent in the rainband and the more intense the monsoon flow, while the latitude of the rainband is related to heating in the Gulf of Guinea region and on the northern side of the Saharan heat low. Overall, this work illustrates the difficulty experienced by current climate models in representing the characteristics of monsoon systems, but also that we can still use them to understand the interactions between local subgrid physical processes and the WAM circulation. Moreover, our conclusions regarding the relationship between errors in the large-scale circulation of the WAM and the structure of the heating by small-scale processes will motivate future studies and model development.
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2013
We analyse the interannual variability of the averaged summer monsoon rainfall over the Sahel from multiple regional climate models driven by the ERA-interim reanalysis and seek to provide effective information for future modelling work. We find that the majority of the models are able to reproduce the rainfall variability with correlation coefficient exceeding 0.5 compared with observations. This is due to a good representation of the dynamics of the main monsoon features of the West African climate such as the monsoon flux, African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ). Among the models, only HIRHAM fails to reproduce the rainfall variability exhibiting hence a correlation coefficient of −0.2. This deficiency originates from the fact that HIR-HAM does not properly capture the variability of monsoon flow and the relationship between rainfall and the AEJ dynamic. We conclude that a good performance of a regional climate model in simulating the monsoon dynamical features variability is of primary importance for a better representation of the interannual variability of rainfall over the Sahel.