Coup-proofing strategies in counter-revolutionary regimes: Egypt since 2013 (original) (raw)

Most of the existing literature on coup-proofing in Arab countries focused on the measures implemented during periods of stability, overlooking external issues like foreign aid and militaryto-military relationships. This paper examines the strategies used by the Egyptian counterrevolutionary regime to maintain control over the armed forces and analyzes their impact on power dynamics and decision-making. The president employs a three-track strategy, with the military playing a pivotal role. He aims to retain power and establish absolute personalist rule by preventing military coups, avoiding popular uprisings, and obstructing external support for regime change. Three major conclusions: (1) While coup-proofing measures offer benefits in terms of ensuring the military's allegiance, the concessions granted to the military in return reinforced its autonomy. This autonomy may lead to military defection if circumstances change, such as if the privileges granted to the army are reduced or if public outrage against the regime's economic policies escalates and the regime fails to respond. In addition, the regime has no alternative but to continue to rely on the military and retired officers because it lacks a robust and cohesive party organization. (2) The regime believes effective opposition mobilization will lead to street protests, causing the military to become the primary threat as it will not defend the regime against the people. Thus, the regime's iron fist remains strong and will endure as long as the opposition remains divided. (3) Egypt's foreign policy aims to align its survival with regional and global powers' interests, with the military playing a crucial role. Tactics include compromising on economic reforms, offering lucrative military contracts to foreign corporations, and connecting the debt to other foreign and regional policies that affect Egypt.

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