ISPRS Archives XXXVIII-8/W3 Workshop Proceedings: Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture 118 IMPACT ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DIFFERENT CROPS IN GUJARAT, INDIA (original) (raw)
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Climate change and its impact on major crops in Gujarat
Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015
The projected climatic data (2071 to 2100) as downscaled by PRECIS model for different stations (Anand, Vadodara, Junagadh, Bhavanagar, Bhuj, Rajkot and Kesod) of Gujarat were analysed for climate change impact study on different crops. Results indicated that the annual rainfall during projected period would be 15 to 101 per cent higher than the base line rainfall (1961-90). Maximumtemperature would increase by 2.8 to 7.7 0C, while minimum temperature would increase by 3.8 to 5.2 0C in different parts of Gujarat. The impact of climate change on different crops (wheat, maize, pearl millet, paddy and groundnut) of Gujarat was studied using InfoCrop and DSSAT models. The results indicated that climate change will adversely affect the yields of different crops. The maximum yield reduction (-61 %) is projected in wheat and lowest in pearl millet (-<8%). Maize during kharif season would be more affected (-47 %) than the rabi season (-10 %). Similarly pearl millet in summer season will ...
Impact of climate change on Indian agriculture: A review
Climatic Change, 2006
During the recent decade, with the growing recognition of the possibility of climate change and clear evidence of observed changes in climate during 20 th century, an increasing emphasis on food security and its regional impacts has come to forefront of the scientific community. In recent times, the crop simulation models have been used extensively to study the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security. The output provided by the simulation models can be used to make appropriate crop management decisions and to provide farmers and others with alternative options for their farming system. It is expected that in the coming decades with the increased use of computers, the use of simulation models by farmers and professionals as well as policy and decision makers will increase. In India, substantial work has been done in last decade aimed at understanding the nature and magnitude of change in yield of different crops due to projected climate change. This paper presents an overview of the state of the knowledge of possible effect of the climate variability and change on food grain production in India.
Assessment of Climatic Parameters for Future Climate Change in a Major Agricultural State in India
Climate, 2021
The change in future climate will have a prominent impact on crop production and water requirement. Crop production is directly related to climatic variables. Temperature, solar radiation, wind, precipitation, CO2 concentration and other climatic variables dictate crop yield. This study, based on long-term historical data, investigates the patterns and changes in climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation) that would most significantly affect the future crop production in many parts of the world, and especially in India, where most farmers depend on rainfall for rice production. Statistical analyses—box and whisker plot, mean absolute error, Taylor diagram, double mass curve, Mann–Kendall trend test, and projected climate change—were used to assess the significance of the climatic factors for the purpose of agricultural modeling. Large variability in precipitation may cause the flash floods and affect the farming, and at the same time, increase in temperatur...
Impact of projected climate change on wheat and maize in middle Gujarat agro-climatic zone
Journal of agrometeorology
The impact of projected climate change on wheat and maize (kharif and rabi) have been studied for Anand and Dahod districts of Gujarat state using PRECIS output of A2 and base line data. Yield simulation study was performed by InfoCrop model. The field experiment data on wheat collected at Anand during 2005-2009 and for maize collected at Dahod during 2004-07 respectively were used for calibration and validation of the model. The simulated yield over projected period (2071-2100) showed that nearly 38 to 43 % yield reduction was noted in both the cultivars as compared to their base yield. However, the yield reduction was lower under late sown condition (30th Nov.) and higher in early sown (1st Nov.). In case of maize cultivars the percent reduction in yield during kharif season was higher in 15th July sowing as compared to 1st July sowing. Under normal (1st July) sowing nearly 40 % reduction in yield was simulated by model during projected period. During rabi season the yield reducti...
Analytical Study on Impact of Climate Change on India Agriculture
2017
Climate change is likely to directly impact food production across the globe. This paper estimates the economic impact of climate change on Indian agriculture. The largest known economic impact of climate change is upon agriculture because of the size and sensitivity of the sector. The climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways such as quantity and quality of crops in terms of productivity, growth rates, photosynthesis and transpiration rates, moisture availability etc. The consequences of agriculture's contribution to climate change, and of climate change's negative impact on agriculture, are severe which is projected to have a great impact on food production and may threaten the food security and livelihoods and hence, require special agricultural measures to combat with. The present paper focused on the current scenario of agriculture in India and the various implications of climate change on food security and livelihoods.
Impact of climate change on agriculture: An Indian perspective
India is the seventh largest country of the world. In India temperature will increase 3oC to 6oC and rainfall will increase 15-30% in 21 Centaury. While the global surface temperature is projected to increase by 1-4oC from 2100 for low emission scenario and 2.5-5.8oC for higher emission scenario in the atmosphere. This Paper has been prepared with the objects of provide key information on the impacts of climate on Indian agriculture. The greenhouses gas emissions increases day by day in the atmosphere from the many sources such as industrial sources crop production and fossil fuel combustion. These are the major sources for the climate change. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture. Currently Available general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that the area-averaged annual mean warming would be about 3°C in the decade of the 2050s and about 5°C in the decade of the 2080s over the land regions of Asia as a result of future increases in atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. In Rajasthan, a 2°C rise in temperature was estimated to reduce production of pearl millet by 10-15 per cent (Y S Ramakrishna et al.,). The state of Madhya Pradesh, where soybean is grown on 77 per cent of all agricultural land, could dubiously benefit from an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture – A Scenario with Reference to Rainfall in India
The growth rate analysis indicated that area, production and productivity of cereals, pulses and total food grains have been increased except in the case of area under cereals. The results of instability analysis should be seriously taken into consideration because pulses show a higher variability over the years compared to that of cereals. It could found from the correlation analysis that there exists positive correlation of rainfall with area, production and productivity of food grains. And correlation coefficient is much higher for area compared to other two aspects. From the field survey conducted it can be concluded that as per the perception of farmers on impact of climate change the major three impact factors are change in climatic and rainfall patterns, erratic rainfall and land is becoming unsuitable for cultivation.
Journal of Agrometeorology
Gujarat, being a coastal state, is likely to be impacted by global warming and climate change not only due to sea level rise and salinity ingress but also due to an increase in the frequency of cyclonic storms and other extreme weather events, causing uncertainty in crop production. An attempt has therefore been made to understand the climate of Gujarat in the past, present, and future based on the works done at the Department of Agricultural Meteorology, Anand. Analysis carried out on climatic trends and climatic extremes using past available data from different stations in Gujarat has been highlighted. Crop simulation models validated with experimental data collected for different crops across Gujarat state were used to understand the response of crops to climatic variability. The climate change impact studies and adaptation strategies carried out under the NPCC project have also been highlighted. And lastly, the work done by the author as an emeritus scientist on climate projecti...
2009
The Northeastern Region of India is expected to be highly prone to the consequences to climate change because of its geo-ecological fragility, strategic location vis-à-vis the eastern Himalayan landscape and international borders, its trans-boundary river basins and its inherent socio-economic instabilities. Environmental security and sustainability of the region are and will be greatly challenged by these impacts. The region fall under high rainfall zone with subtropical type of climate. Still, under influence of global climate change even high rainfall areas are facing drought like situations in the current years. Droughts and floods are the adverse climatic conditions arising out of deficit and excess rainfall, respectively. Drought assumes significance mainly in rainfed conditions like in North East India. Unprecedented drought like situation affected very adversely the whole NER in recent years. Special reference may be made for the year 2005, 2006, 2009. Floods are equally dev...
A Review on Climate Change and its Impact on Agriculture in India
Current Journal of Applied Science and Technology
Agriculture sector is of the utmost importance to the economy of a country and incidentally it is also most vulnerable to global climate change. Climate change is taking a toll on India’s agricultural production and productivity. Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) has projected that by the end of 21st century temperature in India is likely to increase by 3-4°C which would lead to a loss of 3-26% in net agricultural revenues. Aggravated climatic factors will ultimately decline plant productivity, which will result in increased prices and unaffordable rates for the common population. The absence of mitigation and adaptation measures may result in lower farm income by 12-40% in the coming years. This issue is an important concern for livelihood, economic development and ensuring food and job security of an agrarian nation like India. The causes that ultimately are contributing to increase in greenhouse gases, deterioration of soil and water ecology must be identified and ...