CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS FOR PUNJAB DURING 21 ST CENTURY Optimizing cereal productivity under RCP projected climatic scenarios by mid and end of 21 st century in Punjab (original) (raw)

A simulation study was conducted to analyse the effect of projected changes in climatic parameters on yield of cereal (rice, maize and wheat) crops in different agro-climatic zones of Punjab state. The summary of projected changes in temperature and rainfall (Table I) along with baseline (2010-2021) values during the growing season of respective crops in the state as simulated by Ensemble model under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0) and three time periods (EC : 2030-50, MC : 2051-70 and LC : 2071-90) are given below: Projected changes in maximum temperature • Rice season-An increase in maximum temperature from the baseline (35.4 o C) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 1.3 and 1.2 o C during EC, by 1.8 and 1.7 o C during MC and by 2.2 and 2.0 o C during LC. • Maize season-An increase in maximum temperature from the baseline (35.2 o C) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 1.0 and 0.7 o C during EC, by 1.5 and 1.2 o C during MC and by 1.8 and 1.7 o C during LC. • Wheat season-A variation in maximum temperature from the baseline (24.9 o C) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by-0.1 and-0.6 o C during EC, by 0.6 and 0.1 o C during MC and by 1.1 and 0.9 o C. Projected changes in minimum temperature • Rice season-An increase in minimum temperature from the baseline (24.0 o C) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 4.1 and 3.8 o C during EC, by 4.7 and 4.4 o C during MC and by 4.9 and 5.0 o C during LC. • Maize season-An increase in minimum temperature from the baseline (25.7 o C) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 2.6 and 2.4 o C during EC, by 3.2 and 3.0 o C during MC and by 3.5 and 3.6 o C during LC. • Wheat season-A variation in minimum temperature from the baseline (10.6 o C) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by-1.1 and-1.5 o C during EC, by-0.5 and-0.8 o C during MC and by-0.2 and 0.1 o C during LC. Projected changes in rainfall • Rice season-A decrease in rainfall from the baseline (556 mm) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 137 and 148 mm during EC, by 94 and 107 mm during MC and by 88 and 48 mm during LC. 1 2 • Maize season-A decrease in rainfall from the baseline (524 mm) was observed under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 157 and 166 mm during EC, by 111 and 123 mm during MC and by 103 and 68 mm during LC. • Wheat season-A decrease in rainfall from the baseline (125 mm) was observed under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 67 and 67 mm during EC, by 67 and 68 mm during MC and by 72 and 66 mm during LC. Optimization of crop management practices for cereal crops in Punjab The yield of rice, maize and wheat were simulated using models (CERES-Rice, CERES-Maize and CERES-Wheat) with temperature and rainfall data predicted by the Ensemble model during the 60 years (2030-2090) time period. Later the crop models were used as a tool to identify/ fine tune agronomic practices for the sustaining high productivity of crops under two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0) of climate change during three time periods (EC: 2030-50, MC: 2051-70 and LC: 2071-90) in the state. The salient findings of the study (Fig I, II and III) are given below: Optimized crop management practices for rice crop • The suitable transplanting window will be from 26 June to 16 July in Punjab. • The suitable rice cultivar for the state under future conditions would be PR126. • The increased nitrogen application @155 kg/ha during suitable transplanting window. • The agroclimatic zone V (Abohar) was found as not suitable for rice cultivation under future climatic scenarios. Optimized crop management practices for maize crop • The suitable sowing window will be from 14 to 16 June in agro-climatic zone II and III and 5-20 May in agro-climatic zone V (Faridkot) of Punjab. • The suitable maize cultivar for the state under future conditions would be PMH1. • The increased nitrogen application @145-185 kg/ha during suitable sowing window. • The agroclimatic zone IV (Bathinda) and V (Abohar) were found as not suitable for maize cultivation under future climatic scenarios. Optimized crop management practices for wheat crop • The suitable sowing window was observed from 24 to 29 November in agro-climatic zone II, III and V of Punjab under futuristic climatic scenarios. • The suitable wheat cultivars for the state under future conditions would be HD2967 and PBW725. 2 3 • The increased nitrogen application @ 150-230 kg/ha during suitable sowing window. • In agro-climatic zone IV (Bathinda) none of the sowing dates were found suitable for sustainable wheat cultivation under future climatic scenarios. Table I-Baseline and projected temperature and rainfall during the crop growth season in Punjab Crop Baseline period (2010-21) Early century (2030-50) Mid century (2051-70) Late century (2071-90) RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 Maximum temperature (o C)