Why So Few Women and Minorities in Local Politics?: Incumbency and Affinity Voting in Low Information Elections (original) (raw)
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Sex (and Ethnicity) in the City: Affinity Voting in the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election
Do women vote for women and men for men? Do visible minorities vote for minority candidates, and white voters for white candidates? And what happens when a minority woman appears on the ballot? This study tests for the presence of gender and ethnic affinity voting in the Toronto mayoral election of 2014, where Olivia Chow was the only woman and only visible minority among the three major candidates. Our analysis, which draws on a survey of eligible Toronto voters, is the first to examine the interactive effects of sex and ethnicity upon vote choice in Canada in the context of a non-partisan election and in a non-experimental manner. We find strong evidence of ethnic affinity voting, and show that Chow received stronger support from Chinese voters than from other minority groups. Our results also reveal that gender was related to vote choice, but only when interacted with race.
Sex (And Ethnicity) in the City: Affinity Voting in the 2014 Toronto Mayoral Election
Canadian Journal of Political Science, 2016
Do women vote for women and men for men? Do visible minorities vote for minority candidates, and white voters for white candidates? And what happens when a minority woman appears on the ballot? This study tests for the presence of gender and ethnic affinity voting in the Toronto mayoral election of 2014, where Olivia Chow was the only woman and only visible minority candidate among the three major contenders. Our analysis, which draws on a survey of eligible Toronto voters, is the first to examine the interactive effects of sex and ethnicity on vote choice in Canada in the context of a non-partisan election and in a non-experimental manner. We find strong evidence of ethnic affinity voting and show that Chow received stronger support from ethnic Chinese voters than from other minority groups. Our results also reveal that gender was related to vote choice but only when connected with race.
Ethnic voting patterns: a case study of Metropolitan Toronto
Political Geography, 1995
AtssTrucT. This study proposes ;I number of hypotheses about ethnic voting patterns. In an application of one element of the theory. ecological regressions are used to explain the proportion of the vote in Metropolitan Toronto received hy ethnic (Italian. Chinese and Jewish) candidates for the Liberal. Progressive Conservative and New Democratic parties in rhe September 1087 provincial election. After allowing for the effects of income, age distribution and mother tongue on voting patterns. the ethnicity of the party candidate has a significant effect. A theory of ethnic voting patterns The study of ethnic voting patterns is of considerable interest both in itself in that it will tell us about the role of ethnicity in a multicultural/multi-ethnic society such as Canada, and in its uses in comparative political analysis with data from other countries.' Moreover, analysis of electoral coalition politics is of considerable theoretical importance in the area of research in economics ancl political science known as 'public choice theory' (i.e., .the economics of politics').2 While it is generally acknowledged that ethnic origin has an effect on voting behaviour, there has been little work done in Canada analyzing behaviour of groups other than French and English.3 Usually studies include an 'other' or 'non-charter' group, and sometimes finer breakdowns.* In those studies the basic unit is the constituency, a unit so broad that many ethnic groups have very limited presence in most units, making any 'non-charter' group effects too small to pick up.'
Are women and visible minorities more likely to contest and win municipal elections under different institutional and contextual circumstances? We examine this question using data collected on 934 individual candidates who sought election in twenty-two large and mid-sized cities during the 2014 municipal election cycle in Ontario, Canada. The influence of three types of political opportunity structure on the 'decision to run' for female and minority candidates is examined, as well as the ability of these candidates to win when they do stand for election. While we uncover no evidence that such structures affect candidacy, our results do indicate district magnitude is negatively correlated with the likelihood of female and minority victory. This finding conflicts with the existing literature on the topic and has implications for debates on electoral reform and the representation of women and minorities.
Paying attention and the incumbency effect: Voting behavior in the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election
The importance of incumbent evaluations for voting and the existence of an incumbency effect are wellestablished. However, there is limited research on the effect incumbency has on voters' engagement with election campaigns. This paper examines whether the use of incumbency as a cue when voting is associated with there being less interest in an election and whether campaign period attentiveness affects incumbent support. We consider these questions using data from the Toronto Election Study, a large-N, two-wave survey of Torontonians conducted around the time of the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election. We find that attentiveness, on its own, does not make voters more likely to support an incumbent or non-incumbent candidate. However, among individuals with high knowledge, attentiveness decreases the likelihood of supporting the incumbent, as opposed to a non-incumbent candidate.
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Visible minorities make up roughly half of the population in Metro Vancouver. Despite this, their representation in municipal governments is very low, in partial contrast to provincial and federal levels of government, where representation is higher, although still not proportionate. This study documents this underrepresentation at the municipal level, investigates the sources of that underrepresentation and examines policy options to address it. In five case studies, the research looks at the impact of at-large versus ward electoral systems, varying rates of voter turnout, and the influence of incumbency on electoral chances of visible minority candidates. Drawing on these case studies and six subject matter interviews, the study then evaluates four policy options in the Metro Vancouver context: changing to a ward system for elections, education campaigns, civic engagement opportunities and the status quo.
Incumbency and Competitiveness in City Council Elections: How Accurate Are Voter Perceptions?
Canadian Journal of Political Science
Incumbent city councillors have an almost insurmountable advantage in Canadian municipal elections. This article aims to improve our understanding of the municipal incumbency advantage by considering the ability of electors to correctly identify the two most competitive candidates in one's ward and the factors associated with being able to do so. Using survey data from the Canadian Municipal Election Study (CMES), we consider the case of the 2018 elections in Mississauga, a city with typically high rates of incumbent re-election. Survey respondents were asked to identify the two most competitive candidates in their local ward races. We find that comparatively few electors are able to recognize which challenger serves as the strongest threat to a sitting councillor, a finding that suggests that coordination problems may help to contribute to high rates of incumbent success. We identify several individual-level and ward-level correlates of correctly identifying the first-place and...
Indigenous Peoples and Affinity Voting in Canada
Canadian Journal of Political Science, 2018
Studies interested in Indigenous voting in Canada tend to focus on socio-economic, cultural and political factors that explain their lower levels of electoral participation. While highly relevant given Canada's ongoing reality as a settler-colonial state, these studies are of limited help in making sense of recent increases in electoral engagement in Indigenous communities across the country. Using data from four elections between 2006 and 2015, this study focuses instead on why some Indigenous individuals vote and how they vote. Our analysis suggests that one of many possible reasons for the recent surge in Indigenous turnout has to do with the candidates presenting themselves for elections. Higher voter turnout in Indigenous communities corresponds with a higher proportion of Indigenous candidates. This trend is consistent with the literature on affinity voting. We also find that political parties who present an Indigenous candidate receive more votes in constituencies with a ...
Voting " Ford " or Against: Understanding Strategic Voting in the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election
Objective: We investigate the phenomenon of municipal-level strategic voting in a high-profile mayoral election with a nonpartisan ballot. The rate of strategic voting is calculated, and we investigate whether different types of anti-candidate attitudes (based on policy or personality) affect strategic behaviour Methods: We use survey data from the 2014 Toronto Election Study. Results: The estimated rate of strategic voting was 1.3%. Among those who did cast a strategic ballot, we find that anti-candidate attitudes did not affect the likelihood voting strategically— until the source of the dislike is considered, at which point electors who dislike a candidate on the basis of personality are shown to be more likely to cast their ballots strategically. Conclusions: Strategic voting was minimal, and did not affect the election outcome. The type of dislike towards a candidate (either on the basis of policy of personality) affects strategic behaviour.