Distributional impact of developed countries CC policies on Senegal : A macro-micro CGE application (original) (raw)
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In this paper, we present a distributional impact analysis of climate change policies envisaged or implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Senegal. We consider policies implemented in developed countries and their impact on a developing country. Moreover, we simulate the diminishing productivity of agricultural land as a potential result of climate change (CC) for Senegal. This country is exposed to the direct consequences of CC and is vulnerable to changes in world prices of energy, given its lack of substitution capacity. Past researches have shown that countries with this profile will bear the greatest burden of CC and its mitigation policies. Our results reveal slight increases in poverty when the world price of fossil fuels increases and the negative impact is further amplified with decreases in land productivity. However, subsidizing electricity consumption to protect consumers from world price increases in fossil fuels is shown to provide a weak cushion to poverty increase.
A Macro-Micro Analysis of the Effects of Electricity Reform in Senegal on Poverty and Distribution
Journal of Development Studies, 2009
This study is a product of the Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic (AICD), a project designed to expand the world's knowledge of physical infrastructure in Africa. AICD will provide a baseline against which future improvements in infrastructure services can be measured, making it possible to monitor the results achieved from donor support. It should also provide a better empirical foundation for prioritizing investments and designing policy reforms in Africa's infrastructure sectors. AICD is based on an unprecedented effort to collect detailed economic and technical data on African infrastructure. The project has produced a series of reports (such as this one) on public expenditure, spending needs, and sector performance in each of the main infrastructure sectors-energy, information and communication technologies, irrigation, transport, and water and sanitation. Africa's Infrastructure-A Time for Transformation, published by the World Bank in November 2009, synthesizes the most significant findings of those reports.
Many argued that water accessibility to the poor has been improved with the privatization of water utilities and that privatization on the whole has been beneficial to the poor households. In this paper, we used a multi-household integrated CGE model to analyze the impact of the privatization of the water utilities in Senegal on poverty and inequality and we also present a distributional analysis of water distribution before and after privatization to verify is the privatization process has been pro-poor. We simulate OPEX and CAPEX strategies and analyze how they affect government finances and other key macro and sectoral variables and attempt to measure the impact on poverty and inequality of different groups of households. The simulated price increases for the utility sector, have marginal effects on government finances and positive effects on most groups and negative effects on others agents.
Water Price Reforms in Senegal: Distributional Impact Analysis
Journal of African Development, 2009
This paper focuses on the distribution impact from Senegal's water reforms with emphasis on rates reforms. We first analyze the evolution of consumption patterns before and after the reforms. We found that most of the gains accrue to the highest income classes while the poor have seen little changes. We then use a multi-household integrated Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) to analyze the impact of water pricing reforms on poverty in Senegal. We conclude that the simulated price increases for the sector have marginal effects on government finances but positive effects on most actors except households unless specific transfer programs are introduced to protect the poor.
In Senegal, the poverty reduction strategy will take place in a context characterized by international trade liberalization in the agricultural sector, in general and the groundnut sector, in particular. This is the backdrop against which we have developed a micro-simulated multiple household computable general equilibrium such as proposed by . Four simulations have been made and their impacts assessed at the macroeconomic, sectoral and household levels. The first two simulations concerned tariff reforms, and the last two, the external shocks resulting from a change in export prices on the world market (groundnuts and groundnut oils). These simulations have been used to assess the impacts that the liberalization of the groundnut industry and the privatization of Société Nationale de Commercialisation des Oléagineux du Sénégal (SONACOS) provided for in the Framework Agreement, may have on households and to establish a link between these economic reforms, poverty and income distribution. This model is very flexible because it allows, in particular, a change in the distribution of the target groups who had not been retained prior to the simulation exercise so that an ex post analysis of poverty and inequality to the modeling exercise could be carried out.