Climatic variability and its impact on cereal productivity in Indian Punjab (original) (raw)

Dynamic crop growth simulation models CERES-Rice and CERES-Wheat for rice and wheat, respectively were used to study the effect of climate change on growth and yield of these crops under non-limiting water and nitrogen availability. Analysis of recent 30 year historical weather data from different locations in the state revealed that the minimum temperatures have decreased or increased (-0.02 to + 0.07°C/year), maximum temperatures decreased (-0.005 to-0.06°C/ year) and rainfall increased (2.5-16.8 mm/year). Keeping in view the observed trends in climate variability, growth and yield of crops were simulated under plausible synthetic climatic scenarios of changes in temperature and solar radiation. In general, with an increase in temperature above normal, the phenological development in wheat was advanced, but that of rice was not much affected. With an increase in temperature up to 1.0°C the yield of rice and wheat decreased by 3 and 10%, respectively. On the other hand, crop yields decreased with decrease in radiation and vice-versa. The interaction effects of simultaneous increase/decrease in parameters were also simulated. When the maximum temperature decreased by 0.25 to 1.0°C while minimum temperature increased by 1.0 to 3.0°C from normal, the yield in rice and wheat decreased by 0.8 and 3.0%, respectively from normal.

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