Modeling the uptake of plug-in vehicles in a heterogeneous car market using a consumer segmentation approach (original) (raw)
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Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2012
Plug-in electric vehicles can potentially emit substantially lower CO 2 emissions than internal combustion engine vehicles, and so have the potential to reduce transport emissions without curtailing personal car use. Assessing the potential uptake of these new categories of vehicles requires an understanding of likely consumer responses. Previous in-depth explorations of appraisals and evaluations of electric vehicles have tended to focus on 'early adopters', who may not represent mainstream consumers. This paper reports a qualitative analysis of responses to electric cars, based on semi-structured interviews conducted with 40 UK non-commercial drivers (20 males, 20 females; age 24-70 years) at the end of a seven-day period of using a battery electric car (20 participants) or a plugin hybrid car (20 participants). Six core categories of response were identified: (1) cost minimisation; (2) vehicle confidence; (3) vehicle adaptation demands; (4) environmental beliefs; (5) impression management; and, underpinning all other categories, (6) the perception of electric cars generally as 'work in progress' products. Results highlight potential barriers to the uptake of current-generation (2010) plug-in electric cars by mainstream consumers. These include the prioritization of personal mobility needs over environmental benefits, concerns over the social desirability of electric vehicle use, and the expectation that rapid technological and infrastructural developments will make current models obsolete. Implications for the potential uptake of future electric vehicles are discussed.
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The European Commission (EC) has set ambitious CO2 emission reduction objectives for the transport sector by 2050. In this context, most decarbonisation scenarios for transport foresee large market penetration of electric vehicles in 2030 and 2050. The emergence of electrified car mobility is, however, uncertain due to various barriers such as battery costs, range anxiety and dependence on battery recharging networks. Those barriers need to be addressed in the 2020–2030 decade, as this is key to achieving electrification at a large scale in the longer term. The paper explores the uncertainties prevailing in the first decade and the mix of policies to overcome the barriers by quantifying a series of sensitivity analysis scenarios of the evolution of the car markets in the EU Member States and the impacts of each barrier individually. The model used is PRIMES-TREMOVE, which has been developed by E3MLab and constitutes a detailed energy-economic model for the transport sector. Based on...
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A method for assessing the potential and costs of various technologies for CO 2 emission reduction of passenger cars, using a newly built computer model, is presented. A variety of vehicle technologies, each with different attributes regarding CO 2 emissions and costs, is simulated for the supply side, as well a variety of different synthetic customer groups for the demand side within the model. An econometric based selection process calculates the number of each type of new vehicle sold in any year of the simulation. Hence, deriving future market shares of vehicle technologies and overall CO 2 emissions is possible. The detailed technology database used for calculations includes conventional vehicle propulsion technologies as well as innovative vehicle concepts (battery electric vehicles, extended range electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles). Cost degression effects for new technologies are incorporated using learning curves, with costs depending on the cumulative number of vehicles sold. Different types of fuels and influence of crude oil price on fuel prices are taken into account, as well as different taxation systems. Using the model, different scenarios for future development of CO 2 emissions of the new vehicle fleet as well as the vehicle stock are evaluated for the time period 2009-2030.
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Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2014
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) show potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, increase fuel efficiency, and offer driving ranges that are not limited by battery capacity. However, these benefits will not be realized if consumers do not adopt this new technology. Several agent-based models have been developed to model potential market penetration of PHEVs, but gaps in the available data limit the usefulness of these models. To address this, we administered a survey to 1000 stated US residents, using Amazon Mechanical Turk, to better understand factors influencing the potential for PHEV market penetration. Our analysis of the survey results reveals quantitative patterns and correlations that extend the existing literature. For example, respondents who felt most strongly about reducing US transportation energy consumption and cutting greenhouse gas emissions had, respectively, 71 and 44 times greater odds of saying they would consider purchasing a compact PHEV than those who felt least strongly about these issues. However, even the most inclined to consider a compact PHEV were not generally willing to pay more than a few thousand US dollars extra for the sticker price. Consistent with prior research, we found that financial and battery-related concerns remain major obstacles to widespread PHEV market penetration. We discuss how our results help to inform agent-based models of PHEV market penetration, governmental policies, and manufacturer pricing and marketing strategies to promote consumer adoption of PHEVs.
Promoting the Market for Plug-In Hybrid and Battery Electric Vehicles
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2011
Much recent attention has been drawn to providing adequate recharge availability as a means to promote the battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) market. The possible role of improved recharge availability in developing the BEV-PHEV market and the priorities that different charging options should receive from the government require better understanding. This study reviews the charging issue and conceptualizes it into three interactions between the charge network and the travel network. With travel data from 3,755 drivers in the National Household Travel Survey, this paper estimates the distribution among U.S. consumers of (a) PHEV fuel-saving benefits by different recharge availability improvements, (b) range anxiety by different BEV ranges, and (c) willingness to pay for workplace and public charging in addition to home recharging. With the Oak Ridge National Laboratory MA3T model, the impact of three recharge improvements is quantified by the res...
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1. INTRODUCTION The electric vehicle (EV) market is still in early stages in Europe. EU Member States (MSs) are adopting different strategies to incentivise users to take up the new technology, regarding both the vehicle and its supportive infrastructure. The JRC IET Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTT-MAM) is a comprehensive system dynamics based model used to analyse the interactions between policies and market development. In this study we employ the PTT-MAM to understand the relative impact of different approaches to EV uptake and then focus on the relationship of uptake with charging infrastructure. In the first part of this exercise, we establish the responsiveness of the model to actual policies being introduced in individual MSs, using the UK and Netherlands as case studies. In particular, there is a desire to apply successful policies in MSs with less mature electric fleets and see if a similar success could be achieved if these were applied. Therefore we replicate their policies across the whole EU. We then expand on previous work that focused on infrastructure provision to further understand the sensitivities that exist between this and EV uptake, in order to make policy recommendations. 2. BACKGROUND The JRC IET is concerned with providing in-house scientific support to EU policy making. Of particular concern in our work is the decarbonisation of the EU transport fleet in order to meet the EU CO 2 and energy targets. It is widely recognised that road transport, being the 5 th largest EU source of carbon emissions (EEA 2014), as well a major contribution to local pollution in urban areas, is a key subject of discussion. The transition away from conventionally fuelled internal combustion engine vehicles is a major part of this (EU 2011). Within this we have a focus on the uptake of electric vehicles (EV), as this requires a significant alteration in the practices and habits related to transport at all levels. In this paper, the term EV focuses on full Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV). The PTT-MAM was developed in-house at the JRC IET in collaboration with Ventana UK in order to satisfy a need to create a more sophisticated model for understanding interactions and transitions within the European light duty road transport fleet. Based around the actions and feedbacks between four representative market agents, being