Prototype models for the MOIRA computerised system (original) (raw)

1997

Abstract

The main aim of the present report is to describe selected models and the principles of the Decision Analysis theory that will be applied to develop the model-based computerised system `MOIRA`. A dose model and a model for predicting radiocaesium migration in lakes and the effects of countermeasures to reduce the contamination levels in the components of lacustrine system are described in detail. The principles for developing prototype models for predicting the migration of {sup 90}Sr in lake abiotic and biotic components are discussed. The environmental models described in the report are based on the use of `collective parameters` which due to mutual compensation effects of different phenomena occurring in complex systems, show low variability when the environmental conditions change. Use of such `collective parameters` not only increases the predictive power of the models, but also increases the practical applicability of the model. Among the main results described in the report, the development of an objective hierarchy table for evaluating the effectiveness of a countermeasure when the economic, social and ecological impacts are accounted for, deserves special attention.

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