Central Asian Trade Relations in the Post-Soviet Era (original) (raw)
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2012
Since early 90s major regional powers have attempted to increase their export flows to Central Asia. This paper assesses the volume of recent export flows from China, India, Iran, Russia and Turkey to countries in Central Asia. We estimate an augmented gravity model and conduct trade complementarity analysis to compare the factual export volumes with projections generated by the model. We find that China and Turkey were the most successful. They have expanded their exports beyond numbers predicted by the augmented gravity model. Up until 2007 Russia failed to achieve model benchmarks. Exports from India and Iran remain very negligible.
Regional Research of Russia, 2020
Due to the considerable distances from the major sales markets of Russia, the Far East has close ties with markets of the countries in the Asian-Pacific region (APR). The current expansion of trade and economic interactions with these countries has a positive effect on the economic development of the Far East. Reducing various barriers to trade with the APR countries can increase the scale of bilateral trade, acting as a source of growth and development for the economy of the Far East. To determine the ranges for increasing trade, the potential for trade interactions arising from the leveling of various barriers was quantified. It is shown that for the Far East a gradual change in the intensity of foreign trade relations was observed in favor of geographically close foreign markets, the Asia-Pacific countries. Based on the constructed gravity dependence, trade barriers for interactions between the Far East and Asia-Pacific countries were estimated and decomposed into the ad valorem ...
Holding Together or Falling Apart: Results of the Gravity Equation of CIS Trade
Holding-Together Regionalism: Twenty Years of Post-Soviet Integration, 2012
The main purpose of this paper is to assess intra-regional trade within the CIS by looking at the impact of numerous trade agreements in the region. Applying a gravity model on a set of 162 countries, we attempt to assess dynamics of intra-regional trade of various trade agreements between 1995 and 2008 in order to identify trade creation and trade diversion effects. We propose and empirically test three explanations of the CIS intra-regional trade: 1) home bias effect, 2) holding together effect and 3) holdup effect. Finally, we perform a simulation of potential trade and see to what extent twelve post-Soviet states and all their groupings would, ceteris paribus, have traded with each other.
Geographical Analysis, 2010
trade in the context of factor endowment trade theory and two models drawn fim the new trade theory. Empirical analysis indicates that recent Soviet foreign trade was not based on differing factor intensities between Soviet goods and the those of the rest of the world. Instead, the recent geography of Soviet foreign trade suggests that it confolmed mure to the trade in differentiated products expected under the new trade theory. These results suggest that Soviet foreign trade had developed in such a way that, at least with respect to merchandise trade, the Commonwealth of Indqendent States (CIS) has a strong potential fm fairly rapid integration within the group of industrial countries.
Trends and Patterns in Foreign Trade of Central Asian Countries
One of the most important factors of economic development is foreign trade, and Central Asian economies are heavily dependent on trade.The paper discusses recent trends and patterns in the total and intraregional trade of Central Asia (including Afghanistan) and assesses their importance and policy implications. The analysis covers both formal and informal trade flows.
Central Asian Republics and Turkey's relations are more than economical. There are historical and culturel relations. Turkey was the first country that recognise these countries after USSR's collapse. After that they also wanted to improve their economic and political elations. consists the Central Asian Republics. These countris are very rich with regard to natural resources. Beside that Russia's economic and political domination is still remaining. In this study we investigate foreign trade relations between Turkey and Central Asian Republics with many macro economic variables. We worked with the panel data analysis.
The Role of Trade Facilitation in Central Asia: A Gravity Model
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
With a decrease in formal trade barriers, trade facilitation has come into prominence as a policy tool for promoting trade. In this paper, we use a gravity model to examine the relationship between bilateral trade flows and trade facilitation. We also estimate the gains in trade derived from improvements in trade facilitation for the Central Asian countries. Trade facilitation is measured through the World Bank's Logistic Performance Index (LPI). Our results show that there are significant gains in trade as a result of improving trade facilitation in these countries. These gains in trade vary from 28 percent in the case of Azerbaijan to as much as 63 percent in the case of Tajikistan. Furthermore, intraregional trade increases by 100 percent. Among the different components of LPI, we find that the greatest increase in total trade comes from improvement in infrastructure, followed by logistics and efficiency of customs and other border agencies. Also, our results show that the increase in bilateral trade, due to an improvement in the exporting country's LPI, in highly sophisticated, more differentiated, and high-technology products is greater than the increase in trade in less sophisticated, less differentiated, and lowtechnology products. This is particularly important for the Central Asian countries as they try to reduce their dependence on exports of natural resources and diversify their manufacturing base by shifting to more sophisticated goods. As they look for markets beyond their borders, trade facilitation will have an important role to play.
Geography and Trade in Central Asia
2008
This paper documents the steady decline in Central Asia's intra-regional trade since the mid-1990s, defying the 3-fold increase in overall trade from 1996 to 2005. Estimations of potential trade using gravity model confirm that the Central Asian countries, relative to their level of income and other individual characteristics, tend to overtrade with the rest of the world, but significantly undertrade within the region. We explain the regional trade puzzle by employing Helpman's test, which tests the determinants of intra-industry trade based on product differentiation and increasing returns to scale. Helpman's test indicates that Central Asia as a whole has little intra-industry trade. Overall trade is found to be mostly of inter-industry type, driven by natural resource endowment of these countries. We conclude that Central Asia's trade patterns, particularly its trade puzzle, seem to be a result of complex factors such as region's strong comparative advantage in natural resource-based exports, lack of regional integration, and trade-conducive policies across the region.