Has the prevalence of overweight, obesity and central obesity levelled off in the United States? Trends, patterns, disparities, and future projections for the obesity epidemic (original) (raw)
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Epidemiologic Reviews, 2007
This review of the obesity epidemic provides a comprehensive description of the current situation, time trends, and disparities across gender, age, socioeconomic status, racial/ethnic groups, and geographic regions in the United States based on national data. The authors searched studies published between 1990 and 2006. Adult overweight and obesity were defined by using body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m) 2) cutpoints of 25 and 30, respectively; childhood ''at risk for overweight'' and overweight were defined as the 85th and 95th percentiles of body mass index. Average annual increase in and future projections for prevalence were estimated by using linear regression models. Among adults, obesity prevalence increased from 13% to 32% between the 1960s and 2004. Currently, 66% of adults are overweight or obese; 16% of children and adolescents are overweight and 34% are at risk of overweight. Minority and low-socioeconomic-status groups are disproportionately affected at all ages. Annual increases in prevalence ranged from 0.3 to 0.9 percentage points across groups. By 2015, 75% of adults will be overweight or obese, and 41% will be obese. In conclusion, obesity has increased at an alarming rate in the United States over the past three decades. The associations of obesity with gender, age, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status are complex and dynamic. Related population-based programs and policies are needed.
Prevalence of overweight and obesity in the USA, 1990–2021, and forecasts up to 2050
Lancet , 2024
Background: Over the past several decades, the overweight and obesity epidemic in the USA has resulted in a significant health and economic burden. Understanding current trends and future trajectories at both national and state levels is crucial for assessing the success of existing interventions and informing future health policy changes. We estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 with forecasts to 2050 for children and adolescents (aged 5–24 years) and adults (aged ≥25 years) at the national level. Additionally, we derived state-specific estimates and projections for older adolescents (aged 15–24 years) and adults for all 50 states and Washington, DC. Methods: In this analysis, self-reported and measured anthropometric data were extracted from 134 unique sources, which included all major national surveillance survey data. Adjustments were made to correct for self-reporting bias. For individuals older than 18 years, overweight was defined as having a BMI of 25 kg/m² to less than 30 kg/m² and obesity was defined as a BMI of 30 kg/m² or higher, and for individuals younger than 18 years definitions were based on International Obesity Task Force criteria. Historical trends of overweight and obesity prevalence from 1990 to 2021 were estimated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. A generalised ensemble modelling approach was then used to derive projected estimates up to 2050, assuming continuation of past trends and patterns. All estimates were calculated by age and sex at the national level, with estimates for older adolescents (aged 15–24 years) and adults aged (≥25 years) also calculated for 50 states and Washington, DC. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of the posterior distributions of the respective estimates. Findings: In 2021, an estimated 15·1 million (95% UI 13·5–16·8) children and young adolescents (aged 5–14 years), 21·4 million (20·2–22·6) older adolescents (aged 15–24 years), and 172 million (169–174) adults (aged ≥25 years) had overweight or obesity in the USA. Texas had the highest age-standardised prevalence of overweight or obesity for male adolescents (aged 15–24 years), at 52·4% (47·4–57·6), whereas Mississippi had the highest for female adolescents (aged 15–24 years), at 63·0% (57·0–68·5). Among adults, the prevalence of overweight or obesity was highest in North Dakota for males, estimated at 80·6% (78·5–82·6), and in Mississippi for females at 79·9% (77·8–81·8). The prevalence of obesity has outpaced the increase in overweight over time, especially among adolescents. Between 1990 and 2021, the percentage change in the age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased by 158·4% (123·9–197·4) among male adolescents and 185·9% (139·4–237·1) among female adolescents (15–24 years). For adults, the percentage change in prevalence of obesity was 123·6% (112·4–136·4) in males and 99·9% (88·8–111·1) in females. Forecast results suggest that if past trends and patterns continue, an additional 3·33 million children and young adolescents (aged 5–14 years), 3·41 million older adolescents (aged 15–24 years), and 41·4 million adults (aged ≥25 years) will have overweight or obesity by 2050. By 2050, the total number of children and adolescents with overweight and obesity will reach 43·1 million (37·2–47·4) and the total number of adults with overweight and obesity will reach 213 million (202–221). In 2050, in most states, a projected one in three adolescents (aged 15–24 years) and two in three adults (≥25 years) will have obesity. Although southern states, such as Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Kentucky, are forecast to continue to have a high prevalence of obesity, the highest percentage changes from 2021 are projected in states such as Utah for adolescents and Colorado for adults. Interpretation: Existing policies have failed to address overweight and obesity. Without major reform, the forecasted trends will be devastating at the individual and population level, and the associated disease burden and economic costs will continue to escalate. Stronger governance is needed to support and implement a multifaceted whole-system approach to disrupt the structural drivers of overweight and obesity at both national and local levels. Although clinical innovations should be leveraged to treat and manage existing obesity equitably, population-level prevention remains central to any intervention strategies, particularly for children and adolescents.
Increases in morbid obesity in the USA: 2000-2005
Background: It is well known that citizens of developed countries are more likely to be overweight than they were 20 years ago. The most serious health problems are not associated with overweight or moderate obesity, however, but with clinically severe or morbid obesity (e.g. more than 100 pounds (45 kg) overweight). There is no reason to expect that morbid obesity trends parallel overweight or moderate obesity. If morbid obesity is a rare pathological condition that has biological causes, the more than 10-fold increase in bariatric surgery procedures over the past eight years in the USA could have even lowered the prevalence of morbid obesity-and may very well stem the problem in other countries. Objective: To estimate trends for extreme weight categories (BMI440 and 450) for the period between 1986 and 2005 in the USA, and to investigate whether trends have changed since 2000. Methods: Data from The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (a random-digit telephone survey of the household population of the USA), for the period from 1986 to 2005, were analysed. The main outcome measure was body mass index (BMI), calculated from self-reported weight and height. Results: From 2000 to 2005, the prevalence of obesity (self-reported BMI over 30) increased by 24%. However, the prevalence of a (self-reported) BMI over 40 (about 100 pounds (45 kg) overweight) increased by 50% and the prevalence of a BMI over 50 increased by 75%, two and three times faster, respectively. The heaviest BMI groups have been increasing at the fastest rates for 20 years. Conclusions: The prevalence of clinically severe obesity is increasing at a much faster rate among adults in the USA than is the prevalence of moderate obesity. This is consistent with the public health idea that the population weight distribution is shifting, which disproportionately increases extreme weight categories. Because comorbidities and resulting service use are much higher among severely obese individuals, the widely published trends for overweight/obesity underestimate the consequences for population health. The aggressive and costly expansion of bariatric surgery in recent years has had no visible effect on containing morbid obesity rates in the USA.
Lancet, 2024
Background Over the past several decades, the overweight and obesity epidemic in the USA has resulted in a significant health and economic burden. Understanding current trends and future trajectories at both national and state levels is crucial for assessing the success of existing interventions and informing future health policy changes. We estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 with forecasts to 2050 for children and adolescents (aged 5–24 years) and adults (aged ≥25 years) at the national level. Additionally, we derived state-specific estimates and projections for older adolescents (aged 15–24 years) and adults for all 50 states and Washington, DC. Methods In this analysis, self-reported and measured anthropometric data were extracted from 134 unique sources, which included all major national surveillance survey data. Adjustments were made to correct for self-reporting bias. For individuals older than 18 years, overweight was defined as having a BMI of 25 kg/m2 to less than 30 kg/m2 and obesity was defined as a BMI of 30 kg/m2 or higher, and for individuals younger than 18 years definitions were based on International Obesity Task Force criteria. Historical trends of overweight and obesity prevalence from 1990 to 2021 were estimated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. A generalised ensemble modelling approach was then used to derive projected estimates up to 2050, assuming continuation of past trends and patterns. All estimates were calculated by age and sex at the national level, with estimates for older adolescents (aged 15–24 years) and adults aged (≥25 years) also calculated for 50 states and Washington, DC. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of the posterior distributions of the respective estimates. Findings In 2021, an estimated 15·1 million (95% UI 13·5–16·8) children and young adolescents (aged 5–14 years), 21·4 million (20·2–22·6) older adolescents (aged 15–24 years), and 172 million (169–174) adults (aged ≥25 years) had overweight or obesity in the USA. Texas had the highest age-standardised prevalence of overweight or obesity for male adolescents (aged 15–24 years), at 52·4% (47·4–57·6), whereas Mississippi had the highest for female adolescents (aged 15–24 years), at 63·0% (57·0–68·5). Among adults, the prevalence of overweight or obesity was highest in North Dakota for males, estimated at 80·6% (78·5–82·6), and in Mississippi for females at 79·9% (77·8–81·8). The prevalence of obesity has outpaced the increase in overweight over time, especially among adolescents. Between 1990 and 2021, the percentage change in the age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased by 158·4% (123·9–197·4) among male adolescents and 185·9% (139·4–237·1) among female adolescents (15–24 years). For adults, the percentage change in prevalence of obesity was 123·6% (112·4–136·4) in males and 99·9% (88·8–111·1) in females. Forecast results suggest that if past trends and patterns continue, an additional 3·33 million children and young adolescents (aged 5–14 years), 3·41 million older adolescents (aged 15–24 years), and 41·4 million adults (aged ≥25 years) will have overweight or obesity by 2050. By 2050, the total number of children and adolescents with overweight and obesity will reach 43·1 million (37·2–47·4) and the total number of adults with overweight and obesity will reach 213 million (202–221). In 2050, in most states, a projected one in three adolescents (aged 15–24 years) and two in three adults (≥25 years) will have obesity. Although southern states, such as Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Kentucky, are forecast to continue to have a high prevalence of obesity, the highest percentage changes from 2021 are projected in states such as Utah for adolescents and Colorado for adults. Interpretation Existing policies have failed to address overweight and obesity. Without major reform, the forecasted trends will be devastating at the individual and population level, and the associated disease burden and economic costs will continue to escalate. Stronger governance is needed to support and implement a multifaceted whole-system approach to disrupt the structural drivers of overweight and obesity at both national and local levels. Although clinical innovations should be leveraged to treat and manage existing obesity equitably, population-level prevention remains central to any intervention strategies, particularly for children and adolescents.
Prevalence of obesity in the United States
Obesity Reviews, 2005
Obesity is a major public health problem in the United States. Data on measured heights and weights indicates that the prevalence of obesity has significantly increased among the US population over the past 30 years. Data collected from 1999 to 2002 estimates that nearly 1/3 of adults are obese (27.6% of men and 33.2% of women) and one in six children and adolescents is overweight. Increased prevalence of excessive weight is noted among all age, gender and racial/ethnic groups; however, disparities exist. There is a need for further research to better understand why these increases have occurred, why the observed disparities exist and how to reverse these trends.
Population Health Metrics, 2011
No recent national studies have provided incidence data for obesity, nor have they examined the association between incidence and selected risk factors. The purpose of this study is to examine the incidence of obesity (body mass index [BMI] ≥ 30.0 kg/m 2 ) and extreme obesity (BMI ≥ 40.0 kg/m 2 ) among US adults and to determine variations across socio-demographic characteristics and behavioral factors. Methods: We used a weighted sample of 401,587 US adults from the 2009 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Incidence calculations were based on respondent's height and current and previous weights. Logistic regression was used to examine associations between incidence and selected socio-demographic characteristics and behavioral factors. Results: The overall crude incidences of obesity and extreme obesity in 2009 were 4% and 0.7% per year, respectively. In our multivariable analyses that controlled for baseline body mass index, the incidences of obesity and extreme obesity decreased significantly with increasing levels of education. Incidences were significantly higher among young adults, women, and adults who did not participate in any leisure-time physical activity. Incidence was lowest among non-Hispanic whites. Conclusions: The high incidence of obesity underscores the importance of implementing effective policy and environmental strategies in the general population. Given the significant variations in incidence within the subgroups, public health officials should prioritize younger adults, women, minorities, and adults with lower education as the targets for these efforts.
National, regional, and global trends in adult overweight and obesity prevalences
Population health metrics, 2012
Background: Overweight and obesity prevalence are commonly used for public and policy communication of the extent of the obesity epidemic, yet comparable estimates of trends in overweight and obesity prevalence by country are not available. Methods: We estimated trends between 1980 and 2008 in overweight and obesity prevalence and their uncertainty for adults 20 years of age and older in 199 countries and territories. Data were from a previous study, which used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean body mass index (BMI) based on published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiologic studies. Here, we used the estimated mean BMIs in a regression model to predict overweight and obesity prevalence by age, country, year, and sex. The uncertainty of the estimates included both those of the Bayesian hierarchical model and the uncertainty due to cross-walking from mean BMI to overweight and obesity prevalence.
Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism, 2008
Aim: To summarize baseline characteristics, health conditions, resource utilization and resource cost for the US population for the 90-day period preceding enrolment, stratified by body mass index (BMI) and the presence of abdominal obesity (AO). Methods: PROCEED (Prospective Obesity Cohort of Economic Evaluation and Determinants) is a multinational, prospective cohort of control (BMI 20-24.0 kg/m 2), overweight (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m 2) and obese (BMI ! 30 kg/m 2) subjects with AO and without AO [non-abdominal obesity (NAO)], defined by waist circumference (WC) >102 and 88 cm for males and females, respectively. Subjects were recruited from an Internet consumer panel. Outcomes were self-reported online. Self-reported anthropometric data were validated. Prevalence of conditions and utilization is presented by BMI class and AO within BMI class. Differences in prevalence and means were evaluated. Results: A total of 1067 overweight [n ¼ 474 (NAO: n ¼ 254 and AO: n ¼ 220)] and obese [n ¼ 493 (NAO: n ¼ 39 and AO: n ¼ 454)] subjects and 100 controls were recruited. Self-reported weight (r ¼ 0.92) and WC (r ¼ 0.87) were correlated with measured assessments. Prevalence of symptoms was significantly higher in groups with higher BMI, as were hypertension (p < 0.0001), diabetes (p < 0.0001) and sleep apnoea (p < 0.0001). Metabolic risk factors increased with the BMI class. Among the overweight class, subjects with AO had significantly more reported respiratory, heart, nervous, skin and reproductive system symptoms. Overweight subjects with AO reported a significantly higher prevalence of diabetes (13%) compared with overweight subjects with NAO (7%, p ¼ 0.04). Mean healthcare cost was significantly higher in the higher BMI classes [control ($456 AE 937) vs. overweight ($1084 AE 3531) and obese ($1186 AE 2808) (p < 0.0001)]. Conclusion: An increasing gradient of symptoms, medical conditions, metabolic risk factors and healthcare utilization among those with a greater degree of obesity was observed. The independent effect of AO on health and healthcare utilization deserves further study with a larger sample size.