Tracking a sample of patients lost to follow-up has a major impact on understanding determinants of survival in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy in Africa (original) (raw)
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Tropical Medicine & International Health, 2010
Objective To date, data regarding the determinants of mortality in HIV-infected patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa have been primarily derived from routine clinical care settings practicing the public health approach. Losses to follow-up, however, are high in these settings and may lead to bias in understanding the determinants of mortality.Methods We evaluated HIV-infected adults initiating ART between January 1, 2004 and September 30th, 2007 in an ART clinic in southwestern Uganda. Clinical and demographic characteristics were obtained through routine clinical care. In evaluating determinants of mortality, a ‘naïve’ analysis used only deaths known through routine processes. A ‘sample-corrected’ approach incorporated, through probability weights, outcomes from a representative sample of patients lost to follow-up whose vital status was ascertained through tracking in the community.Results In 3,628 patients followed for up to 3.75 years after ART initiation, the ‘naïve’ approach identified male sex and lower pre-ART CD4 count as independent determinants of mortality. The ‘sample-corrected’ approach found lower pre-ART CD4 count, older age, lower weight and calendar year of ART initiation, but not male sex, to be independent determinants of mortality.Conclusions Analyses to identify determinants of mortality in HIV-infected patients on ART in Africa that do not account for losses to follow-up can identify spurious associations and miss actual relationships – both with the potential to mislead public health efforts. A sampling-based approach to account for losses to follow-up represents a feasible and potentially scalable method to strengthen the evidence available for implementation of ART delivery in Africa.
The lancet HIV, 2015
Mortality after initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) among HIV-infected patients in resource limited settings is a critical measure of the effectiveness and comparative effectiveness of the global public health response. Unknown outcomes due to high loss to follow-up (LTFU) preclude accurate accounting of deaths and limit our understanding of effectiveness. We evaluated in HIV-infected adults on ART in 14 clinics in five settings in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania using a sampling-based approach in which we intensively traced a random sample of lost patients (> 90 days late for last scheduled visit) and incorporated their vital status outcomes into analyses of the entire clinic population through probability-weighted survival analyses. We followed 34,277 adults on ART from Mbarara and Kampala, Uganda; Eldoret and Kisumu, Kenya; and Morogoro, Tanzania. The median age was 35 years, 34% were men, and median pre-therapy CD4 count was 154 cells/μl. Overall 5,780 (17%) were LTFU, 99...
PLOS Medicine, 2020
Background Men in sub-Saharan Africa have lower engagement and retention in HIV services compared to women, which may result in differential survival. However, the true magnitude of difference in HIV-related mortality between men and women receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is incompletely characterized. Methods and findings We evaluated HIV-positive adults �18 years old newly initiating ART in 4 Zambian provinces (Eastern, Lusaka, Southern, and Western). In addition to mortality data obtained from routine electronic medical records, we intensively traced a random sample of patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) and incorporated tracing outcomes through inverse probability weights. Sex-specific mortality rates and rate differences were determined using Poisson regression. Parametric g-computation was used to estimate adjusted mortality rates by sex and age. The study included 49,129 adults newly initiated on ART between August 2013 and July 2015; overall, the median age among patients was 35 years, the median baseline CD4 count was 262 cells/μl, and 37.2% were men. Men comprised a smaller proportion of individuals starting ART (37.2% versus 62.8%), tended to be older (median age 37 versus 33 years), and tended to have lower CD4 counts (median 220 versus 289 cells/μl) at the time of
Infectious Disease Reports, 2015
Knowledge of mortality trends and predictors among HIV-positive patients in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in resource poor settings is still limited. The aim of this study was to describe trends and predictors of mortality among HIV-positive patients in the era of HAART in Uganda. Data from 2004 to 2013 for adult HIV-positive patients (≥15 years) obtaining care and treatment from the AIDS Support Organization in Uganda were reviewed for mortality. Descriptive statistics were analyzed by frequencies and cross tabulations. Calendar period was used as a proxy measure for HAART exposure and a time plot of the proportion of HIV-positive patients reporting dead per year was used to describe the trends. Logistic regression was used to determine the predictors of mortality at bivariate and multivariate levels, respectively. We included in the analysis 95,857 HIV positive patients; 64% were female with median age of 33 years (interquartile range 27-40). Of these 36,...
AIDS Research and Therapy, 2011
Background There have been few reports of long-term survival of HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa managed under near normal health service conditions. Methods Participants starting ART between February 2005 and December 2006 in The AIDS Support (TASO) clinic in Jinja, Uganda, were enrolled into a cluster-randomised trial of home versus facility-based care and followed up to January 2009. The trial was integrated into normal service delivery with patients managed by TASO staff according to national guidelines. Rates of survival, virological failure, hospital admissions and CD4 count over time were similar between the two arms. Data for the present analysis were analysed using Cox regression analyses. Results 1453 subjects were enrolled with baseline median count of 108 cells/μl. Over time, 119 (8%) withdrew and 34 (2%) were lost to follow-up. 197/1453 (14%) died. Mortality rates (95% CI) per 100 person-years were 11.8 (10.1, 13.8) deaths in the first yea...
International Journal of Std & Aids, 2016
Recent ecological data demonstrate improving outcomes for HIV-infected people in sub-Saharan Africa. Recently, Uganda has experienced a resurgence in HIV incidence and prevalence, but trends in HIV-related deaths have not been well described. Data were collected through the Uganda AIDS Rural Treatment Outcomes (UARTO) Study, an observational longitudinal cohort of Ugandan adults initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 2005 and 2013. We calculated cumulative incidence of death within one year of ART initiation, and fit Poisson models with robust variance estimators to estimate the effect enrollment period on one-year risk of death and loss to follow-up. Of 760 persons in UARTO who started ART, 30 deaths occurred within one year of ART initiation (cumulative incidence 3.9%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.7-5.6%). Risk of death was highest for those starting ART in 2005 (13.0%, 95% CI 6.0-24.0%), decreased in 2006-2007 to 4% (95% CI 2.0-6.0%), and did not change thereafter (P=0.61). These results were robust to adjustment for age, sex, CD4 cell count, viral load, asset wealth, baseline depression, and body Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav