Uncertainty History Matching and Forecasting, a Field Case Application (original) (raw)

All Days, 2012

Abstract

Geological, reservoir, economical and technological uncertainties have an effect on decision making and consequently on reserves development plans. Quantifying the impact of these uncertainties can make this process more reliable. A great difficulty to achieve this in practice is the variability and complexity of workflows available to manage uncertainty using numerical simulation.The inaccuracy, high uncertainty or lack of reliable data yields risk to the forecasting process, making the calibration of the dynamical model with the field production data indispensable. History matching is an inverse problem and, in general, different combinations of reservoir attributes can lead to acceptable solutions, especially due to the high degree of uncertainty of these attributes. A set of solutions that respect the observed data may lead to different prediction scenarios.The objective of this work is the integration of history matching with probabilistic analysis of representative scenarios. ...

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