An information model to estimate efforts of product development processes (original) (raw)
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Proceedings of the Design Society, 2021
The quick and accurate estimation of design effort can be make or break for all but the largest of product design consultancies. Traditional design project planning see designers being taken away from the metaphorical drawing board to spend time assessing project briefs and estimating workloads. Typically these designers base these estimates on their tacit knowledge and experience, and for the most part, they are accurate. However, this is time-consuming and therefore (indirectly) costly, as time spent planning, is not time spent designing. Many more sophisticated approaches for estimating design effort have been developed, but many require large bodies of past data and sophisticated analysis, such as artificial neural networks; and others have highly-specific use cases. This paper proposes a new method to develop a design effort estimation tool for product design consultancies. This method captures the tacit knowledge and experience of design team members and the tool replicates it quickly and effectively; graphically modelling factors that influence design effort needs in product design projects.
Proceedings of the Design Society: International Conference on Engineering Design
Design effort, the amount of time required to complete a project or task (Salam et al., 2009; Salam and Bhuiyan, 2016), is a required resource for any design project which can be influenced by a number of factors. Estimating design effort is a significant challenge that can be mitigated through an understanding of these influential factors. This understanding is held as tacit knowledge by experts, earned through experience; yet, although these factors vary in type and impact, understanding their details can provide insight and improve future estimations. Some previous methods to estimate design effort identify these factors, either from: expert opinion, or historical data analysis with each approach has advantages and disadvantages.This paper is comprised of three parts:A review of published methods and tools for estimating product design effort and whether they consider and identify influential factors; an analysis of possible trends in the identification of factors influencing pro...
Research and Analysis of Opportunities in Product Development Cost Estimation
Advances in Transdisciplinary Engineering, 2018
The early stages of product development are characterized by uncertainties and assumption of parameters that directly affect the product and project costs, the development time, and the quality of the manufacturing process. Designers must deal with challenges that arise unexpectedly in an agile and responsive manner. Expert information systems based on ontological models are a promising approach to capture knowledge and rationale of domain specialists, either for decision making or knowledge reuse. The present study presents a bibliometric analysis on the use of ontologies in product development for cost estimation. It identifies trends and research opportunities that can orient future works. From a general search in scientific databases that originally listed thousands of entries, 31 articles were found and selected based on criteria established using the Proknow-C method. The outcome of the present study can help researchers in the search of relevant research gaps to guide future scientific investigations in the area of knowledge-based cost estimation for product development. Results indicate that there are several possibilities for solutions using ontological and hybrid, transdisciplinary approaches. In the search for solutions that support the product cost estimation in the early stages of development, the use of intelligent systems is not only promising, but is also challenging as a new and real transdisciplinary research area of interest.
Development of a Design-Time Estimation Model for Complex Engineering Processes
Advances in Transdisciplinary Engineering, 2019
The current business environment presents challenges for companies, including increased pressure on time to market, customer expectations, cost and increased competition. To overcome the challenges in the new business environment, the companies introduce common products components and variants in order to reduce complexity and improve the performance. Besides, the manufacturers attempt to increase the variety in products and services in response to the personalization demands; which leads to more complexity. However, the companies can improve the due-date setting and resource allocation to optimize internal process performance. This paper describes a design-time estimation model for planning engineering activities based on a quantification of the most important product complexity factors such as: 1) basic components variety, 2) functional requirements, 3) design interdependencies and 4) regulations and standards. Such factors can decrease or increase the expected time consumption fo...
Use of Process Models to Estimate a Project's Development Costs
INCOSE International Symposium, 1996
Current cost models were developed based on the assumption that complexity of the product was the dominant predictor of cost. This paper describes a cost model developed around process capability that eliminates the dependency on complexity. This paper describes the development of the model, results from execution of the model, and future work to be undertaken to extend to model.
Metrics for design projects: a review
Design Studies, 1999
M any companies are realizing that delivery of products as scheduled is one aspect of measuring the success of new product introduction 1-3 . Unfortunately, in spite of the intensive use of computer assisted design tools, such as CAD and expert systems, managers of engineering design projects are still facing the problem of severe schedule and cost overruns. In published papers, the reported average schedule overrun ranges from 41% to 258%, and cost overrun ranges from 97% to 151% 3,4 . The following points indicate why better estimation of effort and duration of design projects is so important:
A case study to estimate design effort for Pratt & Whitney canada
worldacademicunion.com, 2008
The design effort required to complete a project is an important aspect of a project. It impacts the final cost, as well as the lead-time of a project. In this paper, a case study, which is carried out at Pratt & Whitney Canada, a global leader in the design and manufacture of aircraft engines, is presented. A Parametric model is proposed to estimate the design effort required in for a particular department to complete their design phase of an integrated blade-rotor low-pressure compressor fan. In a sensitivity analysis, the model estimation is compared with the actual estimates and the comparison demonstrates that the parametric model results in a good estimation. The analysis further explores the impact of various factors used to develop the parametric model, as well as demonstrates the significance of the proposed modeling methodology.
European Journal of Operational Research, 2008
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