Terrorism Threat Assessment and Management (original) (raw)
Related papers
Risk Assessment and the Terrorist
Perspectives on Terrorism, 2008
Given the scale of challenges posed by the threat of terrorism and the perpetually limited resources available to counter terrorism, there is widespread agreement – if on nothing else - on the fact that there is an urgent need to find ways to prioritise the use of those resources. In this research note we argue that a greater consideration of the role of psychology in the development of risk assessment procedures may well be a useful tool to enable such prioritisation in a number of critical areas. It ought to be noted at the outset that there are many obvious challenges facing efforts to design risk assessment tools. Questions necessarily emerge about who needs to be assessed for risk and additionally - stemming from the conceptual confusion over what is meant by terrorism, and by extension, extremism - we might also wonder what is being risk-assessed? And finally then, we might ask what factors are related to the level of risk posed, and how we might identify these. At present we do not have complete answers to all of these questions, but this research note aims to explore some of these issues as a first step in the design of risk assessment tools for development in counter-terrorism.
2015
This short (141 pages) and very readable book is a good introduction to some of the most useful concepts and best practices for terrorism analysis. As the title suggests, it is written primarily for practitioners, such as working professionals from law enforcement, fire services, or emergency management who find themselves serving as intelligence and homeland security analysts. The focus is on terrorism analysis, but many of the principles discussed in the book would be useful for anyone—whether practitioner or student—who is working to understand and analyze homeland and national security threats.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
Assessing Terrorist Risks: Developing an Algorithm-Based Model for Law Enforcement
Comments from the Guest Editor This Special Issue on 'Policing Terrorism and Radicalism' for the Pakistan Journal of Criminology brings together a wide and diverse range of researchers, academics and practitioners from around the world. This Special Issue contains a balanced mix of theory and practice that will resonate with anyone wanting to know and learn more about the complexities which underpin the twin brothers of terrorism and radicalism. The diversity of the articles is such that I have thematically arranged them, somewhat loosely; around three key notions associated with policing terrorism and radicalism-namely, assessment, cyber space and investigations.
Application of a systematic methodology to terrorism risk management
Risk Analysis V: Simulation and Hazard Mitigation, 2006
Due to the complexity and the heterogeneity of the evaluations involved, terrorism risk management requires a systematic and organized methodology to enable a thorough analysis of the possible attack modes and vulnerabilities that the structure being analyzed presents. This study defines an overall methodological approach for assessing the terrorism risk and provides a practical application to a localized but duly characterized infrastructure. Many standards of American and Anglo-Saxon origin, featuring different levels of detail and fields of application, define the essential characteristics of the analysis process and terrorism risk management. The proposed approach has been developed on the basis of said criterion and of the methodologies currently used in the assessment of natural and industrial risks. The essential risk management tool, which must be updated during the analysis, is known as the Hazard Log. It is by means of an index model that a quantitative assessment of the structure's vulnerabilities is performed. The application of this methodology to a real building ("Pirelli" skyscraper, federal building in Milan) aims at evaluating its effectiveness in terms of analytical detail and ability to provide concrete guidelines as to the need for further technical and procedural countermeasures and/or detail analysis.
Assessing Threat Scenarios: Severity, Mitigation, Capability and Response
2011
Terrorism is generally viewed as: "the use of violence and intimidation in the pursuit of social, political, economic or religious aims." Today's corporations face increasing threats from foreign and domestic groups. These threats can be exerted both physically and financially, both in real space as well in cyber space. Threats can be generated both by terror groups as well as those operating merely for personal financial gains. In this paper we provide a novel methodology for dealing with threats, assessing their scope, mitigating their impact, and generating proper feasible responses. This phase is followed by screening those generated options into a set of responses in line with current capabilities and time constraints.
Response Making Terrorism Risk Analysis Less Harmful and More Useful: Another Try
2011
Although Ezell claims that we only “repackaged in a new article the limitations identified by Ezell et al. of PRA in terrorism risk analysis, ” he neither ad-dresses nor refutes any of our substantive technical points and examples, and his comments reflect a fun-damental lack of understanding of our main ideas. We are therefore grateful for this opportunity to clar-ify our reasoning in light of his comments, as follows. 1. Intelligence analysts cannot condition on knowledge that they do not have. Ezell asserts that we, and the National Research Coun-cil, have overlooked what he calls the “ob-vious fact ” that “intelligence analysts con-sider terrorist knowledge... when assessing probabilities of attack. ” However, a major
Making Terrorism Risk Analysis Less Harmful and More Useful: Another Try
Risk Analysis, 2011
Although Ezell claims that we only "repackaged in a new article the limitations identified by Ezell et al. of PRA in terrorism risk analysis," he neither addresses nor refutes any of our substantive technical points and examples, and his comments reflect a fundamental lack of understanding of our main ideas. We are therefore grateful for this opportunity to clarify our reasoning in light of his comments, as follows.
An interdisciplinary approach to studying and improving terrorism analysis
2013 IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics, 2013
The analysis of terrorism information requires sound human judgment amplified by well-integrated technical capabilities in the context of an intelligence mission. To that end, we present the first phase of our work to establish a methodology suitable for the study of terrorism analysis. We present an interdisciplinary approach built on a synthesis of engineering, cognitive, and mission perspectives that is intended to double the analytic capacity of an average analyst. Our research methodology is based on the concept of analytic exercises, in which subjects play the role of analysts solving complex, realistic terrorism problems. The data we collect is then used to identify effective work patterns, investigate possible correlations between work behaviors and qualitative outcomes, and develop techniques to multiply analytic capacity in terrorism analysts.