A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR THE CONTROL OF CHOLERA OUTBREAK IN NIGERIA (original) (raw)
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DergiPark (Istanbul University), 2023
Cholera remains a severe health concern in many developing nations, including Nigeria, and its control remains challenging. Therefore, a mathematical model for the mitigation of cholera disease in Nigeria is developed and analyzed. It includes vital dynamics that examine the impact of environmental sanitation, water body treatment, water hygiene, and therapeutic treatment as mitigation strategies for containing the disease. The impact of control techniques on the diseased population is investigated using numerical simulation. The model was simulated to determine the impacts of hygienic culture on the infected population at no, low, moderate, and high levels of vaccination and treatment, or both. The model under study demonstrates that the cholera pandemic might be eliminated from society with the right mix of preventative measures and determined effort. According to the model used, Nigeria will quickly rid itself of the disease if treatment, water hygiene, and environmental sanitation are highly monitored and improved.
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Biosystems, 2011
Cholera, an acute gastro-intestinal infection and a waterborne disease continues to emerge in developing countries and remains an important global health challenge. We formulate a mathematical model that captures some essential dynamics of cholera transmission to study the impact of public health educational campaigns, vaccination and treatment as control strategies in curtailing the disease. The educationinduced, vaccination-induced and treatment-induced reproductive numbers R E , R V , R T respectively and the combined reproductive number R C are compared with the basic reproduction number R 0 to assess the possible community benefits of these control measures. A Lyapunov functional approach is also used to analyse the stability of the equilibrium points. We perform sensitivity analysis on the key parameters that drive the disease dynamics in order to determine their relative importance to disease transmission and prevalence. Graphical representations are provided to qualitatively support the analytical results.
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Modeling Cholera Dynamics with a Control Strategy in Ghana
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Cholera is an acute diarrheal disease caused by vibro-cholerae bacteria and the outbreak can occur in a situation where water supply, sanitation, food safety and hygiene are insufficient. We developed an epidemic model of SIQR-B, or Susceptible-Infectious-Quarantined-Recovered and Bacteria, type model for cholera infection. We incorporate control measures of treatment in quarantine and vaccination. The effective reproduction number is computed in terms of model parameters. The existence and stability of disease free and endemic steady statesare recognized and the stead states indicated to be locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever effective reproduction numberis less than unity and greater than unity respectively. The most influential parameter to the reproduction number is obtained by using sensitivity analysisand vaccination rate is found to be influential. Furthermore, we carried out numerical simulations to verify and support the impact of intervention measures on the reproduction number, which is seen in the analytical results. The findings indicates that applying combined control measures vaccination and treatment in quarantine will help to prevent and control cholera transmission in the community.
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Covenant journal of physical and life sciences , 2018
In this paper, we present and analyze a cholera epidemiological model with modifications to Fung (2014) cholera model. The extended model incorporates preventive and control measures as well as the possibility of disease transmission from person-to-person. Equilibrium analysis is conducted for the extended model for two cases of epidemic equilibrium and endemic equilibrium to establish disease free equilibrium state (DFE) and endemic equilibrium state (EE) respectively. We derive the basic reproduction numbers and establish the local asymptotical stability for the two models. We later use the results to compare the models at the DFE states as regards the effects of control on the extended model. The endemic equilibrium state (EE) of the extended model is also studied and found to be locally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number. This shows that cholera can be eliminated in a population only if the preventive and control measures are strong enough.
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