Linearity extensions of the market model: a case of the top 10 cryptocurrency prices during the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods (original) (raw)

Volatility in Cryptocurrency Market–Before and During Covid-19 Pandemic

CIU Journal, 2020

This paper aims to measure the nature of volatility in the cryptocurrency market before and during Covid-19 pandemic period. To achieve this goal, the Wald test, Granger Causality and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (1,1) have been applied considering the daily US dollar dominated closing prices of 15 leading cryptocurrencies and volatility index (VIX- CBOE) from 1 January, 2019 to 5 June, 2020. The presence of structural breaks in all the selected cryptocurrencies is observed which result in erroneous forecasting in cryptocurrency market. The small size of cryptocurrency market hinders the risk diversification. It is further noticed that cryptocurrencies are exposed to the systematic bubble risks and therefore it is very unpredictable. Inclusion of cryptocurrencies in the portfolio along with conventional instruments like stocks, bonds, precious metals, commodities, and paper currencies may gear up the overall return on investment and increase the possibility of risk diversification if necessary investment precautions are taken.

Forecasting cryptocurrency markets through the use of time series models

2019

This paper analyses the efficiency of cryptocurrency markets by applying econometric models to different short-term investment horizons. A number of experiments are carried out to demonstrate that small training sets can still be used to build efficient and useful forecasts, which in turn can be transformed into straightforward investment strategies. It also compares the application of selected models on cryptocurrency and mature stock markets. The forecasting accuracy of the models is explored using different error metrics and different horizons. The results suggest that the variation of the error estimates doesn't appear to be tightly related to the maturity of the markets, but rather depends on the intrinsic characteristics of the analyzed time series.

Multivariate Volatility Modelling for Cryptocurrencies

2018

Cryptocurrencies as an investment have received increasing attention by media and international governments over the last years. However, little is known yet about the dynamics that drive these highly volatile alternative assets. This thesis studies the dynamic interdependencies between the volatility of Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ripple, Dogecoin and Feathercoin via the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Engle (2002) with the multivariate Student-t distribution. The main question is whether a multivariate approach improves the Value at Risk forecasting accuracy for the conditional heteroscedasticity in comparison to univariate GARCH-type models. Results show that there is a high interconnectedness between the volatility of the currencies. However, the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model can not deliver better forecasting results than the univariate GARCH-type models for the individual cryptocurrency return series. Contents List of Figures iv List of Tables v List of Tables 1 Summary Statistics for daily log returns × 100 of cryptocurrencies. Log returns are calculated using: r t = 100×ln(P t /P t−1). Returns are observed until 14 th of March 2018. Market cap is captured at 14 th of March 2018. Jarque-Bera-Test checks for deviation from normality (skewness S different from zero and kurtosis K different from 3): JB = T (S/6 + (k − 3) 2 /24), is distributed as X 2 (2) with 2 degrees of freedom. Its critical value at the five-percent level is 5.99 and at the one-percent it is 9.

The Volatility Transmission Between Cryptocurrency And Global Stock Market Indices: Case Of Covid-19 Period

İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 2022

The uncertainty originated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the unpredictability of both real and financial market indicators have increased the volatility of global financial markets. As a result of globalization, the determination of risk and information transfer between financial markets has gained importance during the pandemic process. In this context, the spread of volatility between the cryptocurrency market and the global stock markets was analyzed by considering the pandemic process. Bitcoin, which represents 42% of the total market cap, was used to represent the cryptocurrency market in the analysis. S&P500, FTSE100, SSEC and NIKKEI indices, which are among the world's leading indices in terms of market cap, were used to represent the global stock market. Constant Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH model was used for the analysis of volatility transmission. Daily closing prices covering the date range from 1st December 2019 to 1st July 202 were used for the analyses. The model results were positive and significant for all predicted conditional correlation parameters. In this context, there is volatility transmission and information transfer between BTC and stock returns. The model findings are expected to be a supporting element for financial market participants to make the right decision in the optimal portfolio allocation process.

Modeling and Forecasting Cryptocurrency Returns and Volatility: An Application of GARCH Models

Universal journal of finance and economics , 2022

The future of e-money is crypocurrencies, it is the decentralize digital and virtual currency that is secured by cryptography. It has become increasingly popular in recent years attracting the attention of the individual, investor, media, academia and governments worldwide. This study aims to model and forecast the volatilities and returns of three top cryptocurrencies, namely; Bitcoin, Ethereum and Binance Coin. The data utilized in the study was extracted from the higher market capitalization at 31 st December, 2021 and the data for the period starting from 9 th November, 2017 to 31 st December 2021. The Generalised Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) type models with several distributions were fitted to the three cryptocurrencies dataset with their performances assessed using some model criteria. The result shows that the mean of all the returns are positive indicating the fact that the price of this three crptocurrencies increase throughout the period of study. The ARCH-LM test shows that there is no ARCH effect in volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum but present in Binance Coin. The GARCH model was fitted on Binance Coin, the AIC and log L shows that the CGARCH is the best model for Binance Coin. Automatic forecasting was perform based on the selected ARIMA (2,0,1), ARIMA (0,1,2) and the random walk model which has the lowest AIC for ETH-USD, BNB-USD and BTC-USD respectively. This finding could aid investors in determining a cryptocurrency's unique risk-reward characteristics. The study contributes to a better deployment of investor's resources and prediction of the future prices the three cryptocurrencies.

Analysis of Factors Affecting Cryptocurrency Return During the COVID-19 Pandemic

International Journal of Economic, Business, Accounting, Agriculture Management and Sharia Administration (IJEBAS), 2021

This study aims to analyze the effect of Asset Price, Transaction Volume and Market Capitalization on Cryptocurrency Return. This study uses secondary data in the form of a 2020 weekly report accessed at www.Indodax.com. The data analysis method in this study uses panel data regression analysis which is processed using eviews 10. The partial results show that asset price has a negative and insignificant effect on cryptocurrency returns, transaction volume has a positive and insignificant effect on cryptocurrency returns, market capitalization has a negative and negative effect and not significant to the return of cryptocurrencies. The results of the study simultaneously show that asset price, transaction volume and market capitalization have a negative and insignificant effect on the dependent variable, namely cryptocurrency returns with an R-squared value of 1.1682%. Suggestions for further research are to add other variables that affect cryptocurrency returns such as macroeconomics.

Forecasting the Returns of Cryptocurrency: A Model Averaging Approach

Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 2020

This paper aims to enrich the understanding and modelling strategies for cryptocurrency markets by investigating major cryptocurrencies’ returns determinants and forecast their returns. To handle model uncertainty when modelling cryptocurrencies, we conduct model selection for an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model using several popular penalized least squares estimators to explain the cryptocurrencies’ returns. We further introduce a novel model averaging approach or the shrinkage Mallows model averaging (SMMA) estimator for forecasting. First, we find that the returns for most cryptocurrencies are sensitive to volatilities from major financial markets. The returns are also prone to the changes in gold prices and the Forex market’s current and lagged information. Then, when forecasting cryptocurrencies’ returns, we further find that an ARDL(p,q) model estimated by the SMMA estimator outperforms the competing estimators and models out-of-sample.

Crypto currency applications in financial markets: factors affecting crypto currency prices

Pressacademia, 2020

Purpose-As the cryptocurrency market is beginning to attract investors, a new portfolio of cryptocurrencies has been published in the literature on macroeconomic factors affecting these currencies. This research also aimed to identify the interaction between gold, brent oil, Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple. Methodology-The database includes the Daily prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, gold and brent oil prices between the period of 03.04.2018-31.12.2020 which consist of 500 daily data. Natural logaritm for each indicator is used. First, the stationarity of the series were analyzed with ADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller) unit root test. Lag lengths are determined. Interactions between the series were analyzed by the Johansen Cointegration test, Granger Causality test, Impulse-Response Function and Variance Decomposition method. Findings-The series are found out to be stationary at first difference. According to the cointegration test result, cointegration could not be found between our data. According to Granger causality analysis, only one-way relationship was found from bitcoin to gold. Impulse response graphs indicate that all variables respond in a reducing way to reducing shocks occurred in each indicator. Shocks have lost their effect on average in 2 days. Conclusion-The results indicate that the effect of gold and brent oil prices on bitcoin, ethereum, ripple daily prices do not have a strong effect. The results may be beneficial for investors to consider diversification for the portfolios.

Modelling and Forecasting the Volatility of Cryptocurrencies: A Comparison of Nonlinear GARCH-Type Models

International Journal of Financial Research, 2020

This study is set out to model and forecast the cryptocurrency market by concentrating on several stylized features of cryptocurrencies. The results of this study assert the presence of an inherently nonlinear mean-reverting process, leading to the presence of asymmetry in the considered return series. Consequently, nonlinear GARCH-type models taking into account distributions of innovations that capture skewness, kurtosis and heavy tails constitute excellent tools for modelling returns in cryptocurrencies. Finally, it is found that, given the high volatility dynamics present in all cryptocurrencies, correct forecasting could help investors to assess the unique risk-return characteristics of a cryptocurrency, thus helping them to allocate their capital.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Volatility of Cryptocurrencies

International Journal of Financial Studies

This study aimed to investigate the interactions between Bitcoin to euro, gold, and STOXX50 during the period of COVID-19. First, a bibliometric analysis based on the R package was applied to highlight the research trends in the field during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. While investigating the effects of the pandemic on Bitcoin, the number of cases of COVID-19 was used as a proxy. Using daily data for the period 1 March 2020 to 3 March 2020 and based on a vector autoregressive model, impulse response, and variance decomposition were utilized to analyze the dynamic relationships among the variables. The results revealed that the COVID-19 cases and gold hurt the exchange rate of Bitcoin to euro, while there was great volatility regarding the response of Bitcoin to a shock of STOXX50. The Granger causality test was constructed to investigate the relationships among the variables. The results show the presence of unidirectional causality running from new cases to STOXX50 and fro...