Strategic foresight and barriers: the application of scenario planning in SMEs (original) (raw)
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The Application of Scenario-Based Planning in SMEs
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
This paper aims to provide an introduction to scenario-based thinking and planning and to encourage the use of this method in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) by entrepreneurs. Because of their nature and size, the activities of SMEs in dynamic and indefinite environments are more than large companies. To maintain competitiveness, they have to anticipate market environmental changes and to be able to match their business activities to those changes. Scenario-based planning is a tool that can provide such capability. It increases companies' power in facing with environmental changes and decision makers will consider more aspects in selecting alternatives. The present paper reviews scenario-based analysis and its application in market forecasting. In parallel with this goal, some explanations in relation to scenariobased planning, historical background, applications and method of its use are presented first. Then, its application in SMEs is reviewed and finally, research model will be presented.
The role of scenarios in strategic foresight
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2010
This article discusses the role of scenarios in strategic foresight. It starts by discussing the need for strategic foresight over the next decade, and a set of qualities, structures and processes that facilitate the use of strategic foresight for renewal. The author describes two roles of scenarios in supporting these processesscenarios as mental models, and through providing a wellunderstood methodology that permits exploration of the future. Three key case studies from different fields, such as financial services and pharmaceuticals, enhance the description of the methods.
Scenario-planning in strategic decision-making: requirements, benefits and inhibitors
Foresight, 2018
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the corporate requirements, benefits and inhibitors of scenario planning in strategic decision-making. Design/methodology/approach This paper is based on a sample of 15 case studies with executives in the South African context to reveal the perceived corporate requirements, benefits and inhibitors of scenario-planning. Findings From the cases, it is evident that industry-, organizational- and leadership-related factors enable or inhibit scenario planning. Requirements, benefits and inhibitors are revealed in strategic decision-making. Research limitations/implications Further research to determine supportive tools and technologies for enabling scenario-planning across multiple contexts is needed. Practical implications This paper expands insights into the requirements, benefits and inhibitors of scenario-planning in strategic decision-making. Originality/value Given the increasing complexity of the business environment, a framework of ...
Managing Future Uncertainty: re-evaluating the role of Scenario Planning
The business environment for many firms is rapidly changing and is becoming increasingly uncertain due to the disruption caused by new digital technologies, deregulation, new business models and the threat of new competitive entrants. This dynamic competitive environment increases the level of uncertainty for senior executives and strategic planning teams who have responsibility for the strategic development of the firm, particularly in terms of the future direction, scope and the strategy required to deliver on corporate objectives. This in turn, places increased scrutiny on the strategic planning tools that are used to undertake a rational and comprehensive analysis of the competitive dynamics that inform strategy formulation. This paper presents empirical findings and reflections on a scenario planning project that sought to develop a long-term Corporate Level Strategy. Whilst Scenario Planning is an established constituent of the ‘strategist’s tool box’ the increasing level of dynamism and uncertainty in many markets has meant that it has seen a resurgence in usage. This paper presents empirical findings on how the scenario planning tool was selected and applied before reflecting on the individual and organisational outcomes of using Scenario Planning to develop organizational strategy in uncertain market conditions.
Scenario Management—An Approach for Strategic Foresight
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Scenarios are an effective tool for helping a company to be successful in its competitive environment. The authors show how CI professionals can develop corporate, industry, market, and global scenarios. This is explained by the case study of the German pump industry. The authors also describe the integration of scenarios into the processes of competitive intelligence and strategic management. This includes specific methodolog-ical approaches to identify the consequences of certain scenarios, to develop new strategies, and to assess existing strategic guidelines and current strategic decisions. In addition, they show how to combine scenarios and early-warning systems within a process of strategic foresight.
THE ROLE OF STRATEGIC PLANNING IN SMEs: LITERATURE REVIEW AND IMPLICATIONS
Summary This paper examines how and to which extent small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) apply strategic planning within their business activities. Specifically, we address the question of why SMEs seem to plan less than big companies, whether strategic planning and corporate success correlate with each other and whether strategic planning is a function of increasing company size.
Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, 2018
PurposeThe theoretical value of scenario-planning as a strategic tool is well recognized in literature. The purpose of this study is to explore the corporate reasoning of formal and informal usage (or non-usage) of scenario-planning in strategic decision-making.Design/methodology/approachAn overview of the relevant literature on scenario-planning as a strategic decision-making tool in the context of complexity and uncertainty is presented, in combination with 15 case studies on executives in the South African context.FindingsThe findings are based on a study in the emerging market context. From the case studies reported, it is evident that industry, organizational and leadership-related factors influence the effective use or non-use of scenario-planning.Research limitations/implicationsEmpirical findings are reported, contributing to an assessment framework to revisit the usage of formal and informal scenario-planning in strategic decision-making. Further research to determine which...
Lessons from using scenarios for strategic foresight
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2010
Strategic foresight requires a longer and broader view of the environment and, as we at the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) would argue, a conscious attention to the organization's vision and visionary scenarios in the environment. Having promoted foresight on six continents for a wide range of governments, corporations, and non-profit organizations, we have developed lessons on the design and setup of foresight efforts, their use and follow-through. Lessons include: Scenarios using 'aspirational futures' should include expectable, challenging, and visionary alternatives; beware of and understand 'allergic reactions' to foresight given some individuals', particularly leaders', psychological preferences; foresight is most effectively done by and for top leadership but foresight for units or regions of the organization can also be successful; to get the most value, it is important to err on the side of boldness and vision in developing scenarios; foresight efforts create a 'safe space' for exploring challenging situations; associations as collections of companies or professionals have unique foresight needs including elected leadership that rotates every year, and the need to communicate the results of foresight efforts to their members effectively; government and corporations have more similarities than differences in foresight, but companies have more resources and can move quickly to develop and use the foresight.
1 Scenario analysis as a strategic management tool
1999
This paper is about the role of scenarios in strategic management. Generally, a scenario depicts some feasible future state of an organisation’s environment and mostly includes the dynamic sequence of interacting events, conditions and changes that is necessary to reach that state. The scenario approach changed considerably during the last two decades. This is reflected in the different functions ascribed to scenarios. The more traditional functions (in first generation scenarios) are tool for evaluation and selection of strategies, integration of various kinds of data, and exploration and identification of future possibilities. The more recent ones (in second generation scenarios) are making managers aware of environmental uncertainties, stretching of managers’ mental models, and triggering and accelerating processes of organisational learning. The paper discusses especially the latter cluster of functions which are closely linked to each other. By linking the dynamic scenario-deve...