Bioclimatic Characterisation of Specific Native Californian Pinales and Their Future Suitability under Climate Change (original) (raw)
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Revista Chapingo Serie Ciencias Forestales Y Del Ambiente, 2016
M ichoacán is the fifth state with the greatest diversity of plant species, excelling due to its richness in families, genera and species of flowering trees in Mexico. Therefore, in this paper the potential distribution of 12 species of Pinaceae was evaluated in current conditions and future climate change scenarios through ecological niche models. Data on the current climate, future scenarios, soil properties and digital elevation model were used as environmental predictors. The modeling was done using the Maxent software. 75 % of the data on the species presence was used for the training of the models and the remaining 25 % for model validation. The output grids were classified into three categories of area for the species distribution: unsuitable, marginal and suitable. The models show that there will be a 16 to 40 % decrease in suitable areas in the 2015-2039 and 2075-2099 periods, respectively. The species most affected by the decrease in their distribution will be Abies religiosa, Pinus leiophylla and Pinus teocote.
2012
The impacts of climate change (CC) in the development of flora change the spatial distribution of forest ecosystems. Some migrate to higher altitudes and elsewhere, so these species disappear totally or partially of its geographical area. The objective of the study was to compare the current potential distribution of P. patula and P. pseudostrobus under CC scenarios with general circulation models (GCMs) of the atmosphere and Regional assembly (Ra) of the MCG. The distribution of P. patula with CC scenarios A2 2030, the GFDL model was 10 705 has more surface area that HADGEM high fitness, while the Ra GCM was higher with 84 926 ha GFDL. By 2050, this ability to GFDL 2.0 was higher HADGEM surface with 20 482 ha; meantime the GCM Ra was highest with 62. 954 ha GFDL 2.0. The P. pseudostrobus 2030, the GFDL 2.0 had seven hectares of high fitness surface that HADGEM, however the GCM Ra was higher with 86 555 ha GFDL 2.0. By 2050, with GFDL 2.0 HADGEM was higher compared with 264 ha Ra GC...
The Potential Distribution of Tree Species in Three Periods of Time under a Climate Change Scenario
Forests, 2018
Species distribution models have become some of the most important tools for assessment of impact of climatic change, impact of human activity and for the detection of failure in silvicultural or conservation management plans. In this study, we modeled the potential distribution of 13 tree species of temperate forests distributed in the Mexican state Durango in the Sierra Madre Occidental, for three periods of time. Models were constructed for each period of time using 19 climate variables from the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy algorithm) modelling algorithm. Those constructed for the future used a severe climate change scenario. When comparing the potential areas of the periods, some species such as Pinus durangensis (Martínez), Pinus teocote (Schiede ex Schltdl. & Cham.) and Quercus crassifolia (Bonpl.) showed no drastic changes. Rather, the models projected a slight reduction, displacement or fragmentation in the potential area of Pinus arizonica (Engelm.), P. cembroides (Zucc), P. eng...
iforest, 2020
Pinus greggii is a species of socioeconomic importance in terms of wood production and environmental services in Mexico, though it is restricted by particular environmental conditions to the Sierra Madre Occidental. Species distribution models are geospatial tools widely used in the identification and delineation of species' distribution areas and zones susceptible to climate change. The objectives of this study were to: (i) model and quantify the environmentally suitable area for Pinus greggii in Mexico, and possible future distributions under four different scenarios of climate change; (ii) identify the most relevant environmental variables that will possibly drive changes in future distribution; and (iii) to propose adequate zones for the species' conservation in Mexico. Some 438 records of Pinus greggii from several national and international databases were obtained, and duplicates were discarded to avoid overestimations in the models. Climatic, edaphic, and topographic variables were used and 100 distribution models for current and future scenarios were generated using the Maxent software. The best model had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.88 and 0.93 for model training and validation, respectively, a partial ROC of 1.94, and a significant Z test (p<0.01). The current estimated suitable area of Pinus greggii in Mexico was 617,706.04 ha. The most relevant environmental variables for current distribution were annual mean temperature , mean temperature of coldest quarter, and slope. For the 2041-2060 models, annual mean temperature, precipitation of coldest quarter, and slope were the most important drivers. The use of climatic models allowed to predict a future decrease in suitable habitat for the species by 2041-2060, ranging from 48,403.85 (7.8%-HadGEM2-ES RCP 8.5 model) to 134,680.17 ha (21.8%-CNRM-CM5 RCP 4.5). Spatial modeling of current and future ecological niche of Pinus greggii also allowed to delineate two zones for in situ conservation and restoration purpose in northeastern (Nuevo Leon) and central (Hidalgo) Mexico.
Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Forestales, 2018
Las repercusiones del cambio climático (CC) en el desarrollo de la flora modificarán la distribución espacial de los ecosistemas forestales. Algunas especies migrarán hacia mayores altitudes y a otras latitudes, por lo que desaparecerán total o parcialmente de su área original. El objetivo del estudio que se describe consistió en comparar la distribución potencial actual de Pinus patula y de Pinus pseudostrobus bajo escenarios de CC con modelos de circulación general (MCG) de la atmósfera y con Ensamble regional (Er) de MCG. Para 2030, el área de P. patula con escenarios de CC A2 calculada mediante GFDL 2.0 tuvo 10 705 ha más de superficie de aptitud alta que HADGEM, mientras que el Er de MCG fue mayor, con 84 926 ha que GFDL. Respecto a 2050, esta aptitud con GFDL 2.0 registró mayor territorio que HADGEM, con 20 482 ha; el Er de MCG fue más alto con 62 954 ha que GFDL 2.0. Para 2030, el GFDL 2.0 de P. pseudostrobus determinó siete hectáreas más de aptitud alta que HADGEM; por el contrario, el Er de MCG fue superior, con 86 555 ha que GFDL 2.0. Para 2050, mediante este último, la cifra es más grande que con HADGEM, por 264 ha; el Er de MCG resultó con 84 457 ha que a través de GFDL 2.0. La distribución potencial de los dos taxa en el Estado de México con escenarios de CC tiende a reducir su superficie. Los escenarios de Ensamble de MCG permiten generar resultados aplicados con más detalle que los MCG. Palabras clave: Distribución potencial, escenarios de cambio climático, modelos de circulación general (MCG), Pinus patula Schltdl. et Cham.,
Environmental Conservation, 2014
SUMMARYClimate and land-use changes are expected to drive high rates of environmental change and biodiversity loss in Mediterranean ecosystems this century. This paper compares the relative future impacts of land use and climate change on two vulnerable tree species native to Southern California (Juglans californicaandQuercus engelmannii) using species distribution models. Under the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's A1B future scenario, high levels of both projected land use and climate change could drive considerable habitat losses on these two already heavily-impacted tree species. Under scenarios of no dispersal, projected climate change poses a greater habitat loss threat relative to projected land use for both species. Assuming unlimited dispersal, climate-driven habitat gains could offset some of the losses due to both drivers, especially inJ. californicawhich could experience net habitat gains under combined impacts of both climate change and land use.Quercus e...
Modeling the climatic requirements for Southwestern plant species
2003
Modeling the geographic relationships between climate and plant species distributions in the southwestern United States has been difficult because of the extreme topographic diversity and complex seasonal precipitation patterns. Species ranges may be restricted to isolated mountain peaks or deep canyons with climates unlike those of the surrounding region. Seasonal moisture extremes occur during different months across the region. In order to account for these complex relationships, we developed monthly climate surfaces for North America on a ~1 km 2 grid from historical instrumental weather records. Because existing continental-scale species distribution maps were often completed prior to modern advances in georeferencing, we compiled existing state and regional geographic data for several species using GIS to further refine their range maps. Applying a new computer application (ClimLim), we evaluated the statistical relationships between monthly climate values and species geographic ranges in order to establish the most critical values limiting distribution. These methods are demonstrated using Utah Agave (Agave utahensis) and four needle morphological variants of pinyon pine: Pinus monophylla, P. edulis, and their varieties of ambiguous taxonomic status, the californiarum and fallax types. Utah Agave is primarily limited by winter minimum temperature and high monsoon precipitation. The four different needle types of pinyon pine are segregated principally by seasonality of precipitation and drought.
Low-elevation conifers in California’s Sierra Nevada are out of equilibrium with climate
PNAS Nexus
Since the 1930s, California’s Sierra Nevada has warmed by an average of 1.2∘C. Warming directly primes forests for easier wildfire ignition, but the change in climate also affects vegetation species composition. Different types of vegetation support unique fire regimes with distinct probabilities of catastrophic wildfire, and anticipating vegetation transitions is an important but undervalued component of long-term wildfire management and adaptation. Vegetation transitions are more likely where the climate has become unsuitable but the species composition remains static. This vegetation climate mismatch (VCM) can result in vegetation conversions, particularly after a disturbance like wildfire. Here we produce estimates of VCM within conifer-dominated forests in the Sierra Nevada. Observations from the 1930s Wieslander Survey provide a foundation for characterizing the historical relationship between Sierra Nevada vegetation and climate before the onset of recent, rapid climate chang...
1999
We are using a deterministic regression tree analysis model (DISTRIB) and a stochastic migration model (SHIFT) to examine potential distributions of -66 individual species of eastern US trees under a 2 x C02 climate change scenario. This process is demonstrated for Virginia pine (Pinus virginiana). USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data for more than 100000 plots and nearly 3 million trees east of the 100th meridian were analyzed and aggregated to the county level to provide species importance values for each of more than 2100 counties. County-level data also were compiled on climate, soils, land use, elevation, and spatial pattern. Regression tree analysis (RTA) was used to devise prediction rules from current species-environment relationships, which were then used to replicate the current distribution and predict the potential future distributions under two scenarios of climate change (2 x CO,). RTA allows different variables to control importance value predictions at different regions, e.g. at the northern versus southern range limits of a species. RTA outputs represent the potential 'environmental envelope' shifts required by species, while the migration model predicts the more realistic shifts based on colonization probabilities from varying species abundances within a fragmented landscape. The model shows severely limited migration in regions of high forest fragmentation, particularly when the species is low in abundance near the range boundary. These tools are providing mechanisms for evaluating the relationships among various environmental and landscape factors associated with tree-species importance and potential migration in a changing global climate. 0 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. . : Jiversonlne-de@fs.fed.us. 0304-3800/99/Ssee front matter 0 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. PII: SO304-3800(98)00200-2 78 L. R. Ioerson er nl. / Ecologic INPUTS DISTRIB SHIFT OUTPUTS OUTPUTS Forest Cover, % Range Maps
Climatic Change, 2008
The response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to three scenarios of future climate change was simulated for California using the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model. Under all three scenarios, Alpine/Subalpine Forest cover declined, and increases in the productivity of evergreen hardwoods led to the displacement of Evergreen Conifer Forest by Mixed Evergreen Forest. Grassland expanded, largely at the expense of Woodland and Shrubland, even under the cooler and less dry climate scenario where increased woody plant production was offset by increased wildfire. Increases in net primary productivity under the cooler and less dry scenario contributed to a simulated carbon sink of about 321 teragrams for California by the end of the century. Declines in net primary productivity under the two warmer and drier scenarios contributed to a net loss of carbon ranging from about 76 to 129 teragrams. Total annual area burned in California increased under all three scenarios, ranging from 9–15% above the historical norm by the end of the century. Annual biomass consumption by fire by the end of the century was about 18% greater than the historical norm under the more productive cooler and less dry scenario. Under the warmer and drier scenarios, simulated biomass consumption was initially greater, but then at, or below, the historical norm by the end of the century.