Archaeological predictive modelling in underwater contexts. Utility and challenges (original) (raw)
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2010
Large areas of the North Sea region have been submerged since the end of the last Ice Age. GIS can be used to reconstruct the submerged landscape and thus aid in the understanding of the landscape before inundation. Predictive models can greatly aid the search for Stone Age sites by eliminating areas where sites are unlikely to be found or have survived. However, there are considerable challenges to overcome before the full potential of GIS can be achieved. Available map and site data along with post-submergence disturbance and uncertain sea level estimates are evaluated. New perspectives on how to meet these challenges are presented as well as experiences with GIS in the actual diving operations.
1st International Conference on Metrology in Archaeology, 2015
The MISAMS project at the University of Birmingham has produced a GIS protocol that models patterns of inhabitation in the ancient Mediterranean Sea. Due to the size of the dataset (n=871) and the potentially predictive nature of these models, MISAMS' results aid in the management of maritime cultural heritage in a variety of minimally-intrusive, easily quantifiable and measurable, and low cost ways.
Recognition of archaeological targets by means of marine geophysical prospecting
A marine electric resistivity survey was carried out over a submerged beach along the Agropoli shore (Salerno, Italy) to detect buried objects of archaeological interest below the sandy seabed. We found a shipwreck, a military vessel that probably sunk during the Salerno landing operations of the allied forces in the Second World War. Resistivity data provide information on the vertical and horizontal extension of the shipwreck, which is characterized by very low calculated resistivity values (about 2e5 ohm m). Such values differ significantly from the sand and the bedrock values (5e40 ohm m). Although the presence of the shipwreck is clearly visible from geoelectric data, the joint application of electric, magnetic and multibeam bathymetric techniques reduces the ambiguities inherent in each method. As shown in the Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and confirmed by the Digital Elevation Model (obtained from the processing of bathymetric data), the shipwreck extends more than 30 m in NEeSW direction and it is about 13 m wide. The global extension of the relic is consistent with the magnetic data, that are characterized by a magnetic anomaly with an amplitude of about 1800 nT and similar dimension, as inferred from the estimation of source boundaries obtained from the computation of the analytic signal. The results of our survey encourage the use of marine geoelectrical methods for the detection of buried archaeological targets, particularly in locations where the use of seismic prospecting is not effective (e.g. very shallow water with sandy sea-bottoms). The integration of different geophysical methods allows to better define the extension, depth and thickness of buried objects, suggesting that such an approach is the most effective for underwater archaeological investigations.
5. New developments in archaeological predictive modelling
Amsterdam University Press eBooks, 2011
In this paper the authors present an overview of their research on improving predictive modelling into true risk assessment tools. Predictive modelling as it is used in archaeological heritage management today is often considered to be a rather crude way of predicting the distribution of archaeological remains. This is partly because of its lack of consideration of archaeological theory but also because of a neglect of the effect of the quality of archaeological data sets on the models. Furthermore, it seems that more appropriate statistical methods are available for predictive modelling than are currently used. There is also the issue of quality control, a large number of predictive maps have been made but how do we know how good they are? The authors have experimented with two novel techniques that can include measures of uncertainty in the models and thus specify model quality in a more sophisticated way, namely Bayesian statistics and Dempster-Shafer modelling. The results of the experiments show that there is room for considerable improvement of current modelling practice but that this will come at a price because more investment is needed for model building and data analysis than is currently allowed for. It
Mediterranean Archaeology and Archaeometry, Vol. 14, No. 1, 2014, , 2014
The study presents a general methodology for designing, developing and implementing predictive modelling for identifying areas of archaeological interest. The methodology is based on documented archaeological data and geographical factors, geospatial analysis and predictive modelling, and has been applied to the identification of possible Macedonian tombs’ locations in Northern Greece. The model was tested extensively and the results were validated using a commonly used predictive gain, which proved the efficiency of the model’s predictive ability and its capability in providing answers to a series of questions related to archaeological research issues. KEYWORDS: archaeology, predictive modelling, GIS, archaeological research, Macedonian tombs
Spatial Statistical Analysis of Shipwreck Sites: A Methodological Proposal
Journal of Maritime Archaeology, 2023
Spatial statistical analysis is almost absent from research on underwater archaeological contexts. However, the information obtained using this approach would allow the reconstruction of depositional dynamics and the exploration of distribution patterns related to the ships' on-board organization. This paper proposes a six-step methodology that will contribute to reducing the current gap in the use of spatial statistical analysis of shipwreck sites. This methodology will be tested in two distinct case studies, the Uluburun and the Tortugas wrecks, showing that the same protocol can be useful in the interpretation of different shipwrecks, in sites with a coherent distribution during their formation process. Using statistical tools, this methodology will strengthen context awareness, confirming, refuting, or adding new perspectives to previous interpretations. Finally, the way the framework was built will allow its replication in other sites.
The identification of shipwreck sites: a Bayesian approach
2004
Archaeology of the historic era offers the promise of linking people and events to archaeological materials. Yet such identifications have an 'all or nothing' quality and, once made, often take on a reality all their own that does not convey the underlying degree of certainty or data quality on which the identification was based. This is a common problem in archaeology, where both the data, as well as the conclusions, are inherently probabilistic. This paper focuses on the analysis of archaeological shipwrecks, and develops a system to assess and quantify the level of confidence that can be attached to the association of a historical vessel with a scattered wreck site. The linking of a historic vessel with the wreck site is treated as a probabilistic process, and Bayesian methods are employed to estimate the confidence with which a particular vessel is linked to a wreck site and to update this confidence as new evidence is introduced. The approach is demonstrated on a series of wreck sites from the Great Lakes region.
Precision survey and archaeological methodology in deep water
ENALIA: The Journal of the Hellenic Institute of …, 2002
New technologies allow archaeologists to explore the human past in the depths of the ocean, far beyond the 50 meter depth boundary set by SCUBA diving. Using robots and advanced sensors originally developed for other applications, social scientists now are following the path of marine scientists, adapting deep submergence technologies for their own research. Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROVs) and Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) allow archaeologists to survey the sea floor to depths of 6000 m. This brings 98% of the world's ocean floor within reach, and increases dramatically the number of underwater sites available for archaeological study. Several projects in the past five years in the Mediterranean and Black Seas have proven the scientific merit of archaeology in deep water and trained an international cadre of archaeologists in the new technology. Experience shows it is imperative that work in deep water be collaborative. Projects are particularly fruitful when they bring together as a team technologists familiar with the systems, archaeologists trained in the methods of deep water work, and archaeologists specializing in the period, cultures, and geographical regions pertinent to the shipwrecks. A key lesson is that while technology plays a significant part in this work, it must be combined with the research designs, methodology, and insights of archaeologists to form deep water archaeology into a rigorous scientific practice. Toward this goal, underwater vehicles, precision navigation, and remote sensors designed specifically for archaeology will allow archaeologists to make fundamental discoveries about ancient cultures.