Sachs etal Nature 2010 (original) (raw)

Resetting global expectations from agricultural biofuels

Environmental Research Letters, 2009

Aggressive renewable energy policies have helped the biofuels industry grow at a rate few could have predicted. However, while discourse on the energy balance and environmental impacts of agricultural biofuel feedstocks are common, the potential they hold for additional production has received considerably less attention. Here we present a new biofuel yield analysis based on the best available global agricultural census data. These new data give us the first opportunity to consider geographically-specific patterns of biofuel feedstock production in different regions, across global, continental, national and sub-national scales. Compared to earlier biofuel yield tables, our global results show overestimates of biofuel yields by ∼100% or more for many crops. To encourage the use of regionally-specific data for future biofuel studies, we calculated complete results for 20 feedstock crops for 238 countries, states, territories and protectorates.

Growing Crops for Biofuels has Spillover Effects

Amber Waves, 2009

Volatile petroleum prices, along with Federal policies aimed at reducing U.S. dependency on oil imports and mitigating climate change, have sparked rapid growth in biofuel demand. In response, production of agricultural commodities that serve as feedstock for biofuels has increased. Federal policy initiatives and private-sector investment point to continued growth in biofuel production and, consequently, increased demand for agricultural products. The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 includes provisions for a Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) to increase the supply of alternative fuel sources by requiring fuel producers to use at least 36 billion gallons of biofuel by 2022. The RFS provision establishes a level of 15 billion gallons of conventional ethanol by 2015 and at least 21 billion gallons of cellulosic (noncornstarch) ethanol and advanced biofuels (including ethanol from sugarcane and biodiesel) by 2022. The share of total domestic corn production supplying the...

Closing the gap: global potential for increasing biofuel production through agricultural intensification

Environmental Research Letters, 2011

Since the end of World War II, global agriculture has undergone a period of rapid intensification achieved through a combination of increased applications of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides, the implementation of best management practice techniques, mechanization, irrigation, and more recently, through the use of optimized seed varieties and genetic engineering. However, not all crops and not all regions of the world have realized the same improvements in agricultural intensity. In this study we examine both the magnitude and spatial variation of new agricultural production potential from closing of 'yield gaps' for 20 ethanol and biodiesel feedstock crops. With biofuels coming under increasing pressure to slow or eliminate indirect land-use conversion, the use of targeted intensification via established agricultural practices might offer an alternative for continued growth. We find that by closing the 50th percentile production gap-essentially improving global yields to median levels-the 20 crops in this study could provide approximately 112.5 billion liters of new ethanol and 8.5 billion liters of new biodiesel production. This study is intended to be an important new resource for scientists and policymakers alike-helping to more accurately understand spatial variation of yield and agricultural intensification potential, as well as employing these data to better utilize existing infrastructure and optimize the distribution of development and aid capital.

The Biofuels Boom: Implications for World Food Markets

2007

This paper evaluates the impact of the current biofuels boom on world food markets. We begin with an analysis of the origins of the recent bio-fuel boom -from a US perspective. We conclude this section by predicting a slowing of the ethanol boom in the US, as production satiates the high-value demand for ethanol as an additive so that future growth hinges of its ability to substitute for petroleum products on an energy equivalent basis. This transition is reflected in the elimination of the price premium for ethanol, the price of which has dropped sharply in recent months. This, combined with higher corn prices, has served to curtail most plans for new ethanol capacity -at least for the present.

The Social Costs and Benefits of Biofuels: The Intersection of Environmental, Energy and Agricultural Policy

Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 2010

The efficacy of alternative biofuel policies in achieving energy, environmental and agricultural policy goals is assessed using economic cost‐benefit analysis. Government mandates are superior to consumption subsidies, especially with suboptimal fuel taxes and the higher costs involved with raising tax revenues. But subsidies with mandates cause adverse interaction effects; oil consumption is subsidized instead. This unique result also applies to renewable electricity that faces similar policy combinations. Ethanol policy can have a significant impact on corn prices; if not, inefficiency costs rise sharply. Ethanol policy can increase the inefficiency of farm subsidies and vice‐versa. Policies that discriminate against trade, such as production subsidies and tariffs, can more than offset any benefits of a mandate. Sustainability standards are ineffective and illegal according to the WTO, and so should be re‐designed.