The analysis of bullwhip effect in a HMMS-type supply chain (original) (raw)

THE BULLWHIP EFFECT IN SUPPLY CHAIN

Predicting of demand is the significant tool in order the production planning and provisions, managing the surface or creating levels of personalized services. Predicting demand by many technologies is relying on earlier data and their importance is setting up from patterns utilized heretofore earlier of demand for near future. Of values predicted with regard to high responsiveness for of the ones most current, this approach is obtaining in general high (low) values of demand predicted in accordance to periods high (low) of demand. It is being transferred by demand of clients to wholesalers, distributors or producers in the form of the retail order which is current demand for partners of the chain of supplies of the higher mark at the same time. Forecasts of demand are rarely in practice when thorough and what's more they are still refer to the poor quality higher marks in the chain of supplies. In the majority of chains of supplies, individual participants in the chain are trying to rationalize sizes of one's orders in accordance to economic decisions, what the distortion of real demand of clients is being created, through as well as bad redirection of demand at members of the chain of supplies from upper of its levels. Promotions and price hesitation also have influence for distorting demand The need to predict demand is increasing errors by chances to perform on every level of the chain of supplies in forecasts-called the bullwhip effect (BWE) this way-for the whole supply chain. The seeming effect is creating it of double predicting [8]. And therefore it is so very important determining the operating system correctly of predicting of demand which the bullwhip effect will limit. The regular, simple model of supply chain and its flows consist such participants as: supplier, producer, intermediary or distributor, retailer and customer, all with products and information flows. This structure is presented below on figure 1. So taking into consideration the above mentioned model it is possible to do the graphical presentation of the bullwhip effect in supply chain especially with pressure on its formation.

The bullwhip effect in supply chain networks

European Journal of Operational Research, 2010

The bullwhip effect Frequency domain analysis a b s t r a c t This paper analyzes the propagation and amplification of order fluctuations (i.e., the bullwhip effect) in supply chain networks operated with linear and time-invariant inventory management policies. The supply chain network is allowed to include multiple customers (e.g., markets), any network structure, with or without sharing information. The paper characterizes the stream of orders placed by any supplier for any stationary customer demand processes, and gives exact formulas for the variance of the orders placed and the amplification of order fluctuations. The paper also derives robust analytical conditions, based only on inventory management policies, to predict the presence of the bullwhip effect for any network structure, any inventory replenishment policies, and arbitrary customer demand processes. Numerical examples show that the analytical results accurately quantify the bullwhip effect; managerial insights are drawn from the analysis. The methodology presented in this paper generalizes those in previous studies for serial supply chains. j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w . e l s e v i e r . c o m / l o c a t e / e j o r

A SIMULATION STUDY ON THE BULLWHIP EFFECT IN SUPPLY CHAIN

Under the competition among the global market place, enterprises must have skills of dealing with uncertainty. It is known that the lack of information sharing causes the uncertainty. The order variability increase as we move up the supply chain. In this study the bullwhip effect in supply chain is studied. The increase in inventory costs under the bullwhip effect is examined using simulation method. The effect of choosing the right forecasting technique for the demand pattern is taken into account to show its impact on the bullwhip effect.

Study of a supply chain system with the presence of bullwhip effect

MATEC Web of Conferences, 2018

A study has been conducted to understand the effect of bullwhip phenomenon in a supply chain system. The hypothetical data collected from the study is used to make a model which can be used to simulate the operation of the system with moderate complexity. System dynamics approach is used to create an open loop system. The phenomenon used is slightly modified and empirically analysed to bring down its adverse effect on the system. The results obtained graphically are emphasising the effect of bullwhip on the various levels of the supply chain system.

BULLWHIP EFFECT IN SUPPLY CHAIN

A demand variability increase when it moves downstream to upstream in a supply chain, this phenomenon is known the 'Bullwhip effect'. This Bullwhip effect creates pile upon unnecessary inventory in the supply chain and reductions of this make a significant role. In this paper bullwhip effect causes are analyzed and the reducing measures are suggested, such as: Establishing the information sharing mechanism, Coordinating benefit of information sharing, establishing the strategic alliance, strengthening the cooperation & trust, strengthen the stock managing and reduce the lead time of the supply .

The Effect of Lead Time on Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain

In supply chain management, one of the most critical problems which requires a lot of effort to deal with is the relief of bullwhip effect-the phenomenon in which information on demand is distorted while moving upstream. Although it is well established that demand forecast, lead time, order batching, shortage gaming and price fluctuation are the main sources that lead to the bullwhip effect, the problem of quantifying bullwhip effect is still remained unsolved in many situations due to the complex nature of the problem. In this research, a measure of bullwhip effect will be developed for a two-echelon system that includes one retailer and one supplier. The retailer employs base stock policy for their inventory and demand forecast is performed through autoregressive models. The effect of lead time will then be investigated.

Simulation-Based Statistical Analysis of the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains

2000

The paper proposes both statistical and simulation-based analysis and evaluation of the bullwhip effect in supply chains. The demand distortion, called the bullwhip effect, is considered as an important characteristic of supply chain operation stability. A mathematical justification of the stochastic demand as a cause of the bullwhip effect is discussed. Results of simulation studies to analyse the impact of

Reverse bullwhip effect: duality of a dynamic model of Supply Chain

Independent Journal of Management & Production

This study aims to investigate control strategies for the bullwhip effect based on a dynamic model of the linear supply chain, proposed by Helbing and Lammer (2005), which describes the inventory dynamics and production rates of productive units. We simulated the model for instability and stability conditions defined by mathematical analysis. Through these results, we verified both classical and reverse bullwhip effects associated with instability and stability conditions, respectively. The model revealed a duality once the control strategy proposed by Helbing and Lamer (2005) for the classical bullwhip effect ends up causing a reverse effect, which is equally troubling. In the reverse bullwhip effect, we observed amplification of the production rates in the network chains from the supplier to the customer in a way that the upstream chain was not able to meet the needs of the downstream chain. To withhold both effects, we suggest the dynamic control of the parameters that describe t...

A state-space approach for analysing the bullwhip effect in supply chains

Proc. 5th Intern. Conf. on Technology …, 2005

The bullwhip effect is a well known instability phenomenon in supply chains, related to volatility amplification of demand profiles in the upper nodes of the chain. We propose a novel state-space approach for analysing a simple series supply chain model with an arbitrary number of nodes. In addition, we develop techniques for calculating explicitly the associated covariance matrix in parametric form, under white-noise demand profile assumptions. This allows us to analyze the effect of a parameter in the studied inventory policies on the bullwhip effect for chains with an arbitrary number of nodes.