On the role of ?hot towers? in tropical cyclone formation (original) (raw)

The probabilistic approach to tropical cyclogenesis is advanced here by examining the role of convection in the early stages. The development of "hot towers", that is tall cumulonimbus towers which reach or penetrate the tropopause, and their role in tropical cyclogenesis is investigated in two well-documented cases of formation, namely hurricane Daisy (1958) in the Atlantic and Tropical Cyclone Oliver (1993) in the Coral Sea. The hot towers in Daisy had been intensively studied by Malkus and Riehl three decades ago but remained mainly unpublished. The dynamics of Oliver genesis by merging mesoscale vortices has been recently reported, but much of the aircraft data remained. This paper adds the evolving contribution of cumulus-scale events and their associated electrification, which was made possible by the addition of an electric field mill, a numerical cloud model and other remote sensors.