The econometric modelling of Irish agriculture (original) (raw)

Towards an econometric model of the Irish agricultural sector

1999

In this paper the econometric model that has been developed under the auspices of the FAPRI-Ireland Partnership is presented. The FAPRI-Ireland Partnership is a joint venture between Teagasc (The Irish Agriculture and Food Development Authority), the Irish universities, other interest groups in Ireland, and the Food and Agriculture Policy Institute (FAPRI) in the USA. The overall model is comprised of

Economic and household impacts of policy interventions in the Irish agri-food sector until 2020

Over the period 2005-2020, the Irish agri-food sector is confronted with three major policy changes: the decoupling of the single farm payment, the elimination of the dairy quota and potential multilateral trade liberalisation as part of an agreement in the Doha Development Round. This paper studies these reforms and their impacts on the economy and income distribution using a CGE model particularly rich in detail on agri-food sectors, differentiated household groups, and agricultural policy instruments including their links to productive factors and households. This allows customising the model to appropriately represent the specific policy instruments and their actual or potential changes. The results suggest that the past and projected changes in the policy environment have, in sum, a small positive impact on GDP and household income. But, the gains and losses are unequally distributed across sectors and household groups due to the highly differentiated distribution of support an...

Contributed Paper at the EAAE Seminar "Modelling Agricultural Policies: State of the Art and New

2015

This paper presents an approach to depict subsistence production of milk in a partial equilibrium sector model and applies this approach to Poland, Bulgaria and Romania in the European Simulation Model (ESIM). The restriction on milk production implied by the EU milk quota in a situation with increasing market demand along with decreasing subsistence production and consumption, potentially drives up prices for nontradable dairy products in the Central European Countries (CECs), and results in significantly lower net exports and lower production than if these countries do not accede to the EU. Results presented should be taken as tentative and in no way final as the empirical foundation of many of the relevant parameters is weak. 1

The future of agriculture. Prospective scenarios and modelling approaches for policy analysis

The objective of this paper is (i) to compare and discuss literature related to global and European outlooks in relation to the farming sector and rural areas and (ii) to provide an overview of policy modelling methodologies, especially but not only those used in assessing the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). There is significant variation in terms of both the policies and external drivers that are taken into account in global and European outlooks, driven predominantly by the heterogeneity in focus of studies, the approach applied and/or external pressures. An increasing number of studies take on board the new CAP challenges. However, an area where improvements are needed is in the understanding of the sensitivity of policy effects to assumptions on external drivers. Two key modelling approaches applied for policy impact analysis include structural models and econometric models, with the former dominating the latter mainly due to its better adaptability to the needs of policy makers. However, with the CAP evolving towards ever more complex instruments, the relevance and predictive accuracy of structural models will possibly improve only as long as methodological and data issues are addressed.

Potential impact of CAP reform post 2013 on the cereal and livestock sectors: An Irish case study

2010

Using a dynamic, multi product partial equilibrium model, this paper examines the potential impact of changes to the CAP on farmers' behaviour. The results highlight how recent policy changes under the MTR (such as the move towards decoupling) as well as further likely reforms post 2013, such as an increase in the rate of modulation and the introduction of a common flat area payment across member states, will lead to significant changes in agricultural activity.

The Potential Impacts of an EU-wide Agricultural Mitigation Target on the Irish Agriculture Sector

2020

The recently published Irish Climate Action Plan has outlined the leading role which agriculture will have to take for Ireland in order to achieve national reduction of GHG emissions. The agricultural sector model CAPRI is used to investigate the impact of an EU-wide agricultural mitigation target on the Irish agriculture sector. Three scenarios developed under the JRC-project EcAMPA2, allowing the endogenous implementation of mitigation technologies, will show the possible impact range that such a policy target could have. It can be inferred that the Irish agriculture sector can achieve the set mitigation target by adapting livestock production systems, resulting in efficiency gains and implementing specific mitigation technologies. Without a mitigation target, changes are marginal, and voluntary adoption will rarely take place. Subsidising the implementation of mitigation technologies can buffer the impact that a mitigation target will have on the Irish agriculture sector, while a...

Policy harmonized approach for the EU agricultural sector modelling

Agricultural and Food Science, 2011

Policy harmonized (PH) approach allows for the quantitative assessment of the impact of various elements of EU CAP direct support schemes, where the production effects of direct payments are accounted through reaction prices formed by producer price and policy price add-ons. Using the AGMEMOD model the impacts of two possible EU agricultural policy scenarios upon beef production have been analysed -full decoupling with a switch from historical to regional Single Payment scheme or alternatively with re-distribution of country direct payment envelopes via introduction of EU-wide flat area payment. The PH approach, by systematizing and harmonizing the management and use of policy data, ensures that projected differential policy impacts arising from changes in common EU policies reflect the likely actual differential impact as opposed to differences in how "common" policies are implemented within analytical models. In the second section of the paper the AGMEMOD model's structure is explained. The policy harmonized evaluation method is presented in the third section. Results from an application of the PH approach are presented and discussed in the paper's penultimate section, while section 5 concludes.